One Pocket handicap/odds question

[One Pocket Ghost]

Here's a One Pocket handicap/odds comparison that I've always pondered....Experienced One Pocket players like myself and others on here can make a guess at it, Billy, Grady or Freddy would probably have a good take on it, but I think it probably takes a math/statistics expert to give the definitive answer....Here's the question:

What One Pocket spot in balls, would be exactly equal to giving up 2 to 1 on the money - would it be 12-6, 12-7, 11-7, 10-7, or what ?

- Ghost

[SJDinPHX]

Here's a One Pocket handicap/odds comparison that I've always pondered....Experienced One Pocket players like myself and others on here can make a guess at it, Billy, Grady or Freddy would probably have a good take on it, but I think it probably takes a math/statistics expert to give the definitive answer....Here's the question:

What One Pocket spot in balls, would be exactly equal to giving up 2 to 1 on the money - would it be 12-6, 12-7, 11-7, 10-7, or what ?

- Ghost

Ghost old friend, I don't know how to answer your question. I would think you might be getting into a lot of variables there. Such as, how weak is your opponent, The $$$$$ involved, etc. The bottom line is if you are laying 2/1
in order to profit, you must win more than 2 games to his one. I don't know how to equate that unless I know how much the best of the game the better player has. Sorry.

Dick

[One Pocket Ghost]

Ghost old friend, I don't know how to answer your question. I would think you might be getting into a lot of variables there. Such as, how weak is your opponent, The $$$$$ involved, etc. The bottom line is if you are laying 2/1
in order to profit, you must win more than 2 games to his one. I don't know how to equate that unless I know how much the best of the game the better player has. Sorry.

Dick


A couple of guys over on az also weren't sure how to interpret/answer what I was asking......I value your opinion, so maybe it will be more clear if I ask it in a different way.....

Let;s say you yourself are about to play a guy for $200 a game (were gonna pretend it's the San Jose Dick of the 70's :) )....You know his speed exactly, and you know that a dead even game between you two is 11-7....He's willing to play 11-7, or play you even with 2 to 1 on the money - which do you choose ?....

Now, give me your choice in that same scenario against a guy whereby 10-7 is the even spot between you....

Now, give me your choice in that same scenario against a guy whereby 10-8 is the even spot between you....

Lastly, Now, give me your choice in that same scenario against a guy whereby 9-8 is the even spot between you.

[SJDinPHX]

A couple of guys over on az also weren't sure how to interpret/answer what I was asking......I value your opinion, so maybe it will be more clear if I ask it in a different way.....

Let;s say you yourself are about to play a guy for $200 a game (were gonna pretend it's the San Jose Dick of the 70's :) )....You know his speed exactly, and you know that a dead even game between you two is 11-7....He's willing to play 11-7, or play you even with 2 to 1 on the money - which do you choose ?....

Now, give me your choice in that same scenario against a guy whereby 10-7 is the even spot between you....

Now, give me your choice in that same scenario against a guy whereby 10-8 is the even spot between you....

Lastly, Now, give me your choice in that same scenario against a guy whereby 9-8 is the even spot between you.

I would have to say, I myself would prefer to roll the dice giving up the weight.
Personally, I've never cared for giving up odds on the money (especially 2 to 1) If you happen to lose a couple in a row, you are faced with the reality that you have to win the next four games to get even. All the while hoping the guy don't pull up on you. (unless you're playing a freeze-out)Even then, its a real grind back to even. Thats a lot of unneeded pressure IMO.

Dick

[gulfportdoc]

What One Pocket spot in balls, would be exactly equal to giving up 2 to 1 on the money - would it be 12-6, 12-7, 11-7, 10-7, or what ?
Ghost, what you're really asking is at what spot would player X be twice as likely to win as would player Y. Or what spot would make player X two times better than player Y.

Bob Jewett would be the best guy to answer this question, since he's handy with mathematics, and he has also designed handicap systems.

My best guess would be that the weaker player's target score would have to be more than half of what the better player's would be (e.g. 12-7 rather than 12-6), for the reason that one pocket knowledge seems to increase exponentially. That is, in order for a player to give me 10-8, he is actually much more than 25% better than I (10 being 125% of 8). Same with 8-6 being 33% better.

Perhaps a player who is 200% better than I would be able to give me 11-7, maybe even 10-6. But there again, the variables in each player's abilities would make predicting the reasonable probabilities in a 2-1 money spot very difficult. I guess that's why they call it gambling...

Doc

[vapros]

I don't think the answer is mathematical or numerical. If you are going to lay 2-1 on the money, naturally you have to figure you can win at least two games out of three over the long haul. You will have to work it out for yourself, for the guy in front of you, and I don't think it would be the same in all cases, even for players of similar speed. Come up with a handicap that makes you feel good, then subtract a little to make you feel even better. Does that help?

Better still, offer such a terrible game that the guy won't take it, and make the match in some other way.:rolleyes:

[fred bentivegna]

Here's a One Pocket handicap/odds comparison that I've always pondered....Experienced One Pocket players like myself and others on here can make a guess at it, Billy, Grady or Freddy would probably have a good take on it, but I think it probably takes a math/statistics expert to give the definitive answer....Here's the question:

What One Pocket spot in balls, would be exactly equal to giving up 2 to 1 on the money - would it be 12-6, 12-7, 11-7, 10-7, or what ?

- Ghost

I never gave odds on the money except to the worst one pocket player of all time, Lefty Bob. I used to give Bob 14 to 1 on the money and the break. Plus I could only run two balls and then I had to play safe, for $2 a game. Artie used to play him 200 to one on the money plus the break. He never won a game. Reno played him 100 to 1, beat him out of a jillion games, finally lost one and stiffed Bob. I would only play Bob our game if I was dead broke. Several times he won a game early and I would have to string up 14 beads and then have to win the 14 games back to keep from being discovered that I was playing on ass.

the Beard

[wincardona]

Bruce, your question does not have a deffinitive answer,there are too many variables to pinpoint a ball spot that would be comparable to 2 to 1, or just about any money line.Let me explain why comparing a ball spot to a money line would be deceiving.

#1. The value of a ball is more when two weak players play one another opposed to when two top players playing one another.So consequently when two top players are competing the correct comparison may be 11 to 7 as a fair trade off to 2 to 1. But when two weak players are competing the trade off for 2 to 1 is closer to 8 to 6.
#2 The conditions of the equiptment,tight pockets,loose pockets,wet table,dry table all need to be factored in to determine the answer.
#3 inviroment,is it hostile or friendly? who does it favor (home court)

Providing the players are playing on a neutral site you must consider,speed of players,plus table condition to determine the right comparison.

[#Cruncher]

As this is my first post to this forum, I'll admit I don't have the knowledge/experience in one pocket that many on here have. However, I believe I can add a little to the thread.

My friend and I have played for a while now at either 8-6 if we were in the mood for short racks or 12-8 if we wanted to grind it out a little.

After reading this thread, I offered him 2-1 on the money. He agreed and after a couple lengthy sessions we were even. I'm not sure if I like the game though. We would still have to play another dozen sessions to prove this is equivalent for us.

I do agree with wincardona in that with top notch players 2-1 on the money might be more than 8-6, maybe around 9-6. There are two many variables to factor in for an exact spot.

I do want to thank those with all the great posts over the last few years and I will try to post now and again with my two cents.

#cruncher

[wincardona]

Cruncher, laying 2 to 1 is stressful as you have found out. After playing 2 lengthy sessions and feeling that you don't like the game is probably a sign that the odds on the money is getting to you,and if you continue you may have problems.But since you played 2 long sessions and are even tells me that 2 to 1 is reasonably close to a fair trade off with players that play your speed. Thanks for having enough confidence in my opinion on 8 to 6 vs 2 to 1 being close for fair players,and thanks for the report.

[gulfportdoc]

My friend and I have played for a while now at either 8-6 if we were in the mood for short racks or 12-8 if we wanted to grind it out a little. After reading this thread, I offered him 2-1 on the money. He agreed and after a couple lengthy sessions we were even.
#Cruncher: in other words, rather than spotting him balls, you played even, except that you laid him 2-1 on the stakes, right?

What's interesting to me is that the match-up seems to be the same at 8-6 and 12-8.

Doc

[#Cruncher]

GulfportDoc- which spot did you think was more...8-6 or 12-8? I know mathematically speaking 9-6 is equivalent to 12-8, so you might think 12-8 is bigger. However, I have a feeling SanJose Dick might feel 8-6 is bigger. Again, at different levels of play the spots could translate to a wee bit more or less.

[gulfportdoc]

GulfportDoc- which spot did you think was more...8-6 or 12-8? I know mathematically speaking 9-6 is equivalent to 12-8, so you might think 12-8 is bigger.
9-6 and 12-8 are close, but not equivalent. 9-6 is a more favorable spot for the weaker player. There are two spots in between 8-6 and 12-8. They are 11-8 and 10-7. Mathematically 12-8 is a more favorable spot for the weaker player than is 8-6 (see the chart under the "Playing The Game" menu). However, ball-running capacity and other variables will skew the accuracy of the numbers.

Doc

[SJDinPHX]

#Cruncher: in other words, rather than spotting him balls, you played even, except that you laid him 2-1 on the stakes, right?

What's interesting to me is that the match-up seems to be the same at 8-6 and 12-8.

Doc

Doc and #cruncher (welcome aboard). Doc, you may have inadverdantly proven my take on this subject. I don't know your exact speed at 1P, but I am surprised you don't like your 12-8 game, better than your 8-6 game with your friend. However, carry it one step further and try this. If you still have a close game at 12-8 (after you moving up 4 balls, and him 2) Try moving youself to 15, AN INCREASE OF ONLY 3 BALLS, and your friend from 8 to 10, AN INCREASE OF 2 BALLS. Do you see my point. If you carry it on into infinity with you only increasing 3 balls to his 2, you could eventually be playing him 75 to maybe 64. I KNOW you'd win at that game, but you may not be friends any longer HAHAHA.
In short, 15-10 would be better, for you, than 12-8. Are you clear on that ?

Dick

PS Doc, in my prime, there were a ton of good shortstops that I could NOT give 8 to 6, but if I could move them to 14 or 15 to 10, the list shrank considerably.
,

[gulfportdoc]

Doc and #cruncher (welcome aboard). Doc, you may have inadverdantly proven my take on this subject. I don't know your exact speed at 1P, but I am surprised you don't like your 12-8 game, better than your 8-6 game with your friend...PS Doc, in my prime, there were a ton of good shortstops that I could NOT give 8 to 6, but if I could move them to 14 or 15 to 10, the list shrank considerably.
Dick-- Point taken, and it makes sense. However I was not the one playing anyone at any of these spots. One Pocket Ghost started the thread, then #Cruncher added on with a circumstance between he and a friend.

But since you asked re my speed-- I'd probably need 10-7 from either One Pocket Ghost or Lou Figueroa.:cool:

Doc

[SJDinPHX]

Dick-- Point taken, and it makes sense. However I was not the one playing anyone at any of these spots. One Pocket Ghost started the thread, then #Cruncher added on with a circumstance between he and a friend.

But since you asked re my speed-- I'd probably need 10-7 from either One Pocket Ghost or Lou Figueroa.:cool:

Doc

Not a good answer ! I don't know their speeds either??? Are you trying to trap me Doc ?

Dick

[lfigueroa]

Dick-- Point taken, and it makes sense. However I was not the one playing anyone at any of these spots. One Pocket Ghost started the thread, then #Cruncher added on with a circumstance between he and a friend.

But since you asked re my speed-- I'd probably need 10-7 from either One Pocket Ghost or Lou Figueroa.:cool:

Doc


There are so many things wrong with that betting line I wouldn't know where to begin.

Lou Figueroa

[One Pocket Ghost]

. One Pocket Ghost started the thread

Doc


Except, this is no longer the thread I started....I started this thread to determine what ball spot is equal to 2 to 1 on the money, not to compare 8-6 to 15-10 or whatever - that thread is over @ azbilliards......:) :( :rolleyes: :cool:

[One Pocket Ghost]

But since you asked re my speed-- I'd probably need 10-7 from either One Pocket Ghost or Lou Figueroa.:cool:

Doc


Hey Doc.....Now I don't mind you referencing me to get yourself some easy action - but just don't forget to send me my 15%...:)

[SJDinPHX]

Except, this is no longer the thread I started....I started this thread to determine what ball spot is equal to 2 to 1 on the money, not to compare 8-6 to 15-10 or whatever - that thread is over @ azbilliards......:) :( :rolleyes: :cool:

Ghost, sorry if I Hijcked your thread, Doc made me do it !

Dick

[One Pocket Ghost]

Ghost, sorry if I Hijcked your thread, Doc made me do it !

Dick


Dick, Ok, I'll forgive you on one condition - you've got to give me 9-7 when I see you at the Derby City Classic in January....:D

[SJDinPHX]

Dick, Ok, I'll forgive you on one condition - you've got to give me 9-7 when I see you at the Derby City Classic in January....:D

Ghost, would you consider 97 to 95, race to 20, for $ ???.00 ? First one to collapse loses. (You did ask for two balls , didn't you ?) :)

Dick

[One Pocket Ghost]

Ghost, would you consider 97 to 95, race to 20, for $ ???.00 ? First one to collapse loses. :)

Dick


Well, if I was still getting those 'scripts' that I used to get back in the 70's:eek:, I might take you up on that offer - and make it through the whole race......:D

[gulfportdoc]

Well, if I was still getting those 'scripts' that I used to get back in the 70's:eek:, I might take you up on that offer - and make it through the whole race......:D
Reminds me of the circumstance Wade Crane relates about himself from years back. He was telling Buddy Hall that he was thinking about laying of the snappers (speed pills), since they made him too charged up. Said he had just recently jumped the cueball right off the table. And that was on a lag shot!!:D

Doc

[One Pocket Ghost]

Reminds me of the circumstance Wade Crane relates about himself from years back. He was telling Buddy Hall that he was thinking about laying of the snappers (speed pills), since they made him too charged up. Said he had just recently jumped the cueball right off the table. And that was on a lag shot!!:D

Doc


Doc.....That's one of the 'most funniest' anecdotes that I've heard in my years of reading posts here and over at az.b.....

.....And Doc, I wish I knew you back in the 70's, and you were a doctor, I'd say to you...."Hey Doc, my back is really killing me...could you give me a script for those pills that are supposed to be really good for a sore back, let's see whadda they called again...it starts with a Q, oh yeah I remember - Qualludes....you might as well make that script for about 200 so I have enough to last me awhile".........:eek: :D :D

[fred bentivegna]

Reminds me of the circumstance Wade Crane relates about himself from years back. He was telling Buddy Hall that he was thinking about laying of the snappers (speed pills), since they made him too charged up. Said he had just recently jumped the cueball right off the table. And that was on a lag shot!!:D

Doc

Doc, that was so good that I am putting it into the "good enough to steal it for myself" category.

the Beard

[gulfportdoc]

Anyone who has ever partaken in a little chemical help could not possibly hear that story without falling down laughing! Here's a funny epilogue: 4-5 years ago I'm over in New Orleans playing a tournament at the Red Rifle's joint (Corner Pocket). There were a lot of good players there, and because Wade is using his Billy Johnson alias, and also because he looks a lot older these days, most of the guys didn't recognize him. Anyway I end up buying him very reasonably in the Calcutta, so Wade buys half of himself from me. Anyway we're sitting around talking and I bring up the old snapper story. Well Wade's eyes light up and he cracks up. He says, "You know, I forgot all about that story." Right away he starts telling it to another guy, and pretty soon a whole bunch of us are falling down in our corner of the poolroom, with everyone else wondering what the hell is so funny. Turns out Wade took 3rd, so we split up some decent calcutta dough.

Doc