Day 3 Review

[BRLongArm]

With Dennis down six games, he needed to put the heat on Tony and he did just that while Bad Tony showed up impatient and reckless again. The end result is a nail biter tomorrow, with Tony clinging to a one game lead, 30-29.
The consensus is that Dennis has figured out the table and played much better today, while Tony struggled to find consistency.

The circus shots were not going frequently enough today, and Tony gave away game after game when they did not fall. To Dennis' credit though, his improved play punished Tony when he got too aggressive, a big improvement over the previous two days when Tony shot with utter disregard for his opponent and threatened to bury him on the first day.

Tomorrow promises high drama, as Tony has lost his comfortable lead and now must beat a hungry Orcollo to 40, with Dennis getting the first break.

 

[poolisboring]

dennis is back to his usual accuracy--tony is done barring a mental breakdown by dennis......

 

[El Chapo]

I was convinced after watching tony enough now that he seems to be more interested in being a hero than winning. Of course it's fun to watch and it's not really a knock, I just don't find that to be a particularly admirable quality myself. i still hope he wins though.

 

[cincy_kid]

Nice reviews by the way Joe, thanks...

(I agree with most everything you have said about this matchup too)

 

[Scrzbill]

Third day.

Third day.

Circus Tony has thirty after giving away six games at least. Day three he got a bad roll when trying to turn the game around, scratched, and lost that game. Later in the day made an ill advised billiard attempt. That was a four game swing. Dennis has found his rhythm by standing with his arms folded taking even more time than usual. He made his own circus shot by back cutting the head ball to make a run out. Dennis continues to make more mistakes but Tonys impatience will not allow him to time to take advantage. If there is a rematch, Tony should require a clock.
Dennis is playing his game. Slow, deliberate, minimum mistakes.
Tony got to thirty by playing his game. Tony can hold serve and win.
Dennis has to break serve to win. Is there a two game minimum to win? NO!

 

[gulfportdoc]

I only watched a few minutes early in day 3. Tony was missing relatively easy cross-corner banks, which made me suspect that he was off his game, and would probably lose the day.

But Tony is a seat-of-the-pants player, and he's not likely to change his style for the final day. If he loses it'll be because his big shots are not falling; but it won't be because Dennis dominated him, which was the pre-match prediction by most. Dennis has re-captured his accurate, business-like play, so Tony's game will have to be "on" to prevail.

Anyone know how much the winning player will actually get in hand? It's probably different for each player.

~Doc

 

[BRLongArm]

I only watched a few minutes early in day 3. Tony was missing relatively easy cross-corner banks, which made me suspect that he was off his game, and would probably lose the day.

But Tony is a seat-of-the-pants player, and he's not likely to change his style for the final day. If he loses it'll be because his big shots are not falling; but it won't be because Dennis dominated him, which was the pre-match prediction by most. Dennis has re-captured his accurate, business-like play, so Tony's game will have to be "on" to prevail.

Anyone know how much the winning player will actually get in hand? It's probably different for each player.

~Doc

What would you think is fair?

 

[crabbcatjohn]

It looked to me like they leveled the table again and the bottom left corner was rolling out causing Tony to miss a few important banks on that side early on with the right rolling in.

 

[gulfportdoc]

What would you think is fair?

"Fairness" would not come into the equation... But I'd guess the winner gets to put $10-20K in his pocket. I don't know what's common.

~Doc

 

[BRLongArm]

"Fairness" would not come into the equation... But I'd guess the winner gets to put $10-20K in his pocket. I don't know what's common.

~Doc

In big money tough action, the players get between 30-40% of the money after expenses, depending on the agreement. Paying anything more is a failing gambling model. The days of 50-50 are over when big money is involved. A player can expect 30% on huge action and 40% on smaller bets, depending on previous action.

Some stake horses have their players on "make up", which means that they play for even a more reduced piece until past losses are recovered. In the end, it depends on the relationship between backer and player. The longer the relationship, the better the deal for the player.

 

[Island Drive]

the ice man cometh

the ice man cometh

Circus Tony has thirty after giving away six games at least. Day three he got a bad roll when trying to turn the game around, scratched, and lost that game. Later in the day made an ill advised billiard attempt. That was a four game swing. Dennis has found his rhythm by standing with his arms folded taking even more time than usual. He made his own circus shot by back cutting the head ball to make a run out. Dennis continues to make more mistakes but Tonys impatience will not allow him to time to take advantage. If there is a rematch, Tony should require a clock.
Dennis is playing his game. Slow, deliberate, minimum mistakes.
Tony got to thirty by playing his game. Tony can hold serve and win.
Dennis has to break serve to win. Is there a two game minimum to win? NO!

I thought this aspect of play would be a key part to his eventual win, along with settling in to the conditions and improving his pocketing. Improved ball pocketing was just a matter of time.

 

[Cory in dc]

In big money tough action, the players get between 30-40% of the money after expenses, depending on the agreement. Paying anything more is a failing gambling model. The days of 50-50 are over when big money is involved. A player can expect 30% on huge action and 40% on smaller bets, depending on previous action.

Some stake horses have their players on "make up", which means that they play for even a more reduced piece until past losses are recovered. In the end, it depends on the relationship between backer and player. The longer the relationship, the better the deal for the player.

I wonder if you have that backwards?

 

[Jeff sparks]

I finally had a chance to tune in last night... Score was 25/23 Tony... I was fascinated with some of the risk taking of Tony... He is fearless... And this will give pause to anyone he plays... He has a great imagination and is very creative with moving multiple balls and reading the stack...

I believe it's this factor that bothers Dennis the most... He knows Tony will fire at his hole, and that increases the pressure on him considerably, both when he's shooting at his own pocket and when trying to find the perfect spot to leave the CB...

I underestimated Tony's imagination and his knowledge of the stack... His end game might be a little better also... He definitely has more game than I gave him... He could win...

Both made several errors late and lost games with big leads...understandable after a long day... Day 4 will go to the player who best handles the pressure and makes the least errors... Dennis made a great comeback on day 3 to make this an epic battle to the finish...

My wife and I, and a few of our rowdy friends are going to the Hank Williams Jr. Concert tonight in Lake Charles, Louisiana so it's looks like I will miss the finale... Sure hate that, it should be a great battle... Good luck to both players, may the best man win...

 

[BRLongArm]

There is no doubt that Tony is the most dangerous man in one pocket. He is constantly looking for offense to turn the game around. It is unsettling, that is for sure, and when its going good, it's the strongest thing we have ever seen.

But when you are a trapeze artist operating without a net, the margin for error is none. We have all seen Tony in a trap, and rather than grind out an escape that may take four or five innings, he opts for a low percentage splash shot that bets the game. It is unnatural for us old one pocket players to see such risk taking when we saw a simpler shot for survival.

But one pocket at this level is different. Tony likely knows that a passive shot to survive only drags out the death; it does not prevent it. He knows Dennis will put him right back in the trap unless he moves the furniture and that an aggressive billiard might be his best chance to win that game. We look at it as foolhardy because it is low percentage. But it is like splitting eights against a dealer ten. It's not that you win more by doing it. You just lose less.

In a trap, you may be 20% to win the game, but if you shoot the splash shot, you raise your odds to 30%. You still lose most of the time, but you lose less. The passive survival shots we see mean you still lose 80% of the time, you just get more innings before you die.

Just a different way of looking at Tony's analysis. He is a smart guy and I am betting on Dennis, but I respect Tony's knowledge and creativity. I just think you have to let your opponent execute all those little safeties because he can be human and leave you some air. It's called grinding out the game. Tony does not like to grind and that, in my opinion, is his chink in the armor. If you can be patient, Tony will shoot the gofer shot and you will be gifted games.

 

[Scrzbill]

In big money tough action, the players get between 30-40% of the money after expenses, depending on the agreement. Paying anything more is a failing gambling model. The days of 50-50 are over when big money is involved. A player can expect 30% on huge action and 40% on smaller bets, depending on previous action.

Some stake horses have their players on "make up", which means that they play for even a more reduced piece until past losses are recovered. In the end, it depends on the relationship between backer and player. The longer the relationship, the better the deal for the player.

As a stuck horse myself, I have to agree that the longer the relationship, the better the deal, if you have a winning horse. I went from giving my horse straw to oats.

 

[1pwannabe]

I think Tony plays the way he does is to keep his opponent from knowing his game and countering it. If Dennis figures out what Tony will do on every reply, Tony becomes too predictable and he'll be dismantled with surgical skill by Dennis. Scott lost because of this imo, Dennis figured out his game and dismantled him one shot at a time.

 

[OneRock]

Here's my two cents on last night's session...

Some of you seem to favor the passive style of play... You know, bunt a ball here, take a scratch there, prolong the agony, etc. But this style doesn't quite cut it when two top-rated players lock horns. It just doesn't! It's quite ironic to hear someone refer to Tony's attempts at turning the tables on his opponent as 'circus shots.' With that in mind, I fully admit there have been a few questionable shots that Tony took, but I can easily say the same about Dennis. He sold out a couple of times as well.

What made a difference yesterday was Dennis's excellent shot making, not to mention his pattern play that led him to run out some games. As for Tony, I can easily point out four uncharacteristic misses, as well as a couple of banks that seem to have rolled out on him. Might I add the unfortunate skid on the money ball to reach 29 games yesterday (I think Dennis was at 25 when that happened).

Another point I'd like to make concerns those know-it-all guests in the POVPOOL booth who seem to have it all figured out. Jay Helfert showed me yesterday how little he knows about 1P. And the last dude who seems to know exactly what to do on every shot? Most of his shot selections where just outrageous! As far as I'm concerned, they can both step up and get 12-6 from Tony. And don't worry, Tony will make it quick and as painless as possible. Daniel's commentary, on the other hand, was always objective and unbiased towards both players.

 

[BRLongArm]

Here's my two cents on last night's session...

Some of you seem to favor the passive style of play... You know, bunt a ball here, take a scratch there, prolong the agony, etc. But this style doesn't quite cut it when two top-rated players lock horns. It just doesn't! It's quite ironic to hear someone refer to Tony's attempts at turning the tables on his opponent as 'circus shots.' With that in mind, I fully admit there have been a few questionable shots that Tony took, but I can easily say the same about Dennis. He sold out a couple of times as well.

What made a difference yesterday was Dennis's excellent shot making, not to mention his pattern play that led him to run out some games. As for Tony, I can easily point out four uncharacteristic misses, as well as a couple of banks that seem to have rolled out on him. Might I add the unfortunate skid on the money ball to reach 29 games yesterday (I think Dennis was at 25 when that happened).

Another point I'd like to make concerns those know-it-all guests in the POVPOOL booth who seem to have it all figured out. Jay Helfert showed me yesterday how little he knows about 1P. And the last dude who seems to know exactly what to do on every shot? Most of his shot selections where just outrageous! As far as I'm concerned, they can both step up and get 12-6 from Tony. And don't worry, Tony will make it quick and as painless as possible. Daniel's commentary, on the other hand, was always objective and unbiased towards both players.

I wrote something similar and agree with most of your points, at least as far as how Tony is analyzing the game. But we have seen if you grind on Dennis, he'll make a safety error sometimes and let you get back into the game. You never give him a chance to do that if you shoot the Hail Mary the first time you are in a trap. We also saw that Tony has an
edge in end game strategy and he is not pushing the game into that area to take advantage of his strength. As for the booth guests, they are volunteers offering an opinion. I may agree or disagree based on the inning, but it is nice to hear different takes, even if I would do something different or think their suggestion is flat out wrong. Daniel is good in the booth, though, and has a good understanding not only of the game, but of each player's style on what they like.

 

[OneRock]

I'm looking forward to seeing a replay of the last game. I fell asleep when Dennis was up 4-0, I believe. What did Tony pull out of his hat to come back and win that game? Or did Dennis commit a mistake?

 

[BRLongArm]

I'm looking forward to seeing a replay of the last game. I fell asleep when Dennis was up 4-0, I believe. What did Tony pull out of his hat to come back and win that game? Or did Dennis commit a mistake?

Tony banked a ball and left it in his hole. He had a ball for a long rail bank. Dennis conceded the ball, but did not move the cue ball to make the bank tough. Tony long railed the ball and ran six. He ended up winning when Dennis hit a two railer too hard and left a cross bank. Tony absolutely stole the game with Dennis leading 6-0.