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Statistics showing the break has minimal effect on game outcome

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  • #31
    Good posts by one and all. I think we all agree that the player breaking does have some advantage assuming the skills are comparable. Determining the percentage is another matter. Using the Tony/Dennis matches, I never saw either one scratch or sell out the wing ball. So if I'm correct, those two had respective wins of 40/38 Tony which meant over the match he held serve and broke through one additional time. We know they both broke through the other many times but the raw % number = 2.5 %. Dennis on the other hand won the second match I think 40/34? The raw % for him is higher around 7.5%. Now over both matches that equates to about 5%. This clearly is assuming many things and is not empirical and my hypothisis can be shot full of holes but I think I'm pretty close to the actual percentage.

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    • #32
      “I was always under the impression that the break was a stronger advantage, now I'm rethinking this.“

      What’s to rethink? Are you going to give up your break? Are you going to break and think you only have a slight advantage? I don’t understand the thought process.

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      • #33
        Originally posted by BrookelandBilly View Post
        “I was always under the impression that the break was a stronger advantage, now I'm rethinking this.“

        What’s to rethink? Are you going to give up your break? Are you going to break and think you only have a slight advantage? I don’t understand the thought process.
        You are not curious as to what the specific average % advantage is relative to conventional wisdom? I'm not trying to be pugnacious, but it seems that given the thoughts and theories presented in this thread suggests that many players are interested. And no, I'm not giving up the breaks.

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        • #34
          Originally posted by jerry matchin View Post
          Good posts by one and all. I think we all agree that the player breaking does have some advantage assuming the skills are comparable. Determining the percentage is another matter. Using the Tony/Dennis matches, I never saw either one scratch or sell out the wing ball. So if I'm correct, those two had respective wins of 40/38 Tony which meant over the match he held serve and broke through one additional time. We know they both broke through the other many times but the raw % number = 2.5 %. Dennis on the other hand won the second match I think 40/34? The raw % for him is higher around 7.5%. Now over both matches that equates to about 5%. This clearly is assuming many things and is not empirical and my hypothisis can be shot full of holes but I think I'm pretty close to the actual percentage.
          Jerry,
          No disrespect intended...

          . I’m not understanding what you are saying? Do you mean the non breaking player only won 1 game out of the entire 78 games they played? If that’s what you are saying, that is impossible... it would mean the breaker won an amazing 77 out of 78 games... That can’t be what you are saying, I’m just not understanding what you are saying... what are you saying?

          I would like to know the total # of games the breakers won in those matches, along with the other long matches, (alex/frost) as they would certainly give us curious people a good break win percentage among fairly equal opponents over a long haul...

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          • #35
            Jeff, my use of the Tony/Dennis matches was only to illustrate that in the end assuming both players broke through the opponents break, that the eventual winner broke through a few times more to secure their respective win. Obviously my analysis can be viewed as suspect as we don't know how many times each broke through the others serve. I still believe that with comparable skill sets that the 5% advantage of the player breaking is pretty close to reality.

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            • #36
              Originally posted by Jeff sparks View Post
              what would 12/9 equate to percentage wise? A 15% advantage?

              Good guess: .575 X 21 = 12.075; .425 X 21 = 8.925

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              • #37
                Originally posted by jerry matchin View Post
                Jeff, my use of the Tony/Dennis matches was only to illustrate that in the end assuming both players broke through the opponents break, that the eventual winner broke through a few times more to secure their respective win. Obviously my analysis can be viewed as suspect as we don't know how many times each broke through the others serve. I still believe that with comparable skill sets that the 5% advantage of the player breaking is pretty close to reality.
                Ok Jerry, I understand ya now...
                I just watched a 2017 match from I believe it was the west coast swing between Frost and Bustamonte, the match went to the hill game and busty won 4/3...
                The break stat on that small race was 5/2 in favor of the breaking player... in other words, the person who broke, won 5 out of 7 games... I wouldn’t expect this stat to hold water over a much longer race, but as I said in an earlier post, I’d bet the win percentage for the breaking player would tally very near 10%, perhaps even higher...

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                • #38
                  Originally posted by jalapus logan View Post
                  You are not curious as to what the specific average % advantage is relative to conventional wisdom? I'm not trying to be pugnacious, but it seems that given the thoughts and theories presented in this thread suggests that many players are interested. And no, I'm not giving up the breaks.
                  If one doesn't gamble, the question comes down to plain curiosity. If one does gamble and doesn't care, maybe that means he's never going to negotiate a handicap anyway, either way, so difference does it make?

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                  • #39
                    [QUOTE=LSJohn;230282]Good guess: .575 X 21 = 12.075; .425 X 21 = 8.925[/QUOTE

                    Or 12/21= 57.14. 09/21= 42.85

                    Meaning 57.14 - 42.85 = 14.39% in favor of the breaker... is that correct?

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                    • #40
                      Originally posted by Jeff sparks View Post
                      I’d bet the win percentage for the breaking player would tally very near 10%, perhaps even higher...
                      .55 X 21 = 11.55; .45 X 21 = 9.45

                      This means that the 10% advantage only yields 1 extra game out of 21, since each player was theoretically entitled to win 10.5 games out of the 21 planned.

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                      • #41
                        Originally posted by LSJohn View Post
                        If one doesn't gamble, the question comes down to plain curiosity. If one does gamble and doesn't care, maybe that means he's never going to negotiate a handicap anyway, either way, so difference does it make?
                        I guess it doesn't matter much either way. I'm just a curious sort I suppose.

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                        • #42
                          [quote=Jeff sparks;230285]
                          Originally posted by LSJohn View Post
                          Good guess: .575 X 21 = 12.075; .425 X 21 = 8.925[/QUOTE

                          Or 12/21= 57.14. 09/21= 42.85

                          Meaning 57.14 - 42.85 = 14.39% in favor of the breaker... is that correct?
                          Yes, that's the way I would say it.

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                          • #43
                            Originally posted by jalapus logan View Post
                            I guess it doesn't matter much either way. I'm just a curious sort I suppose.
                            Oh, me too, I was commenting on Brookeland's lack of interest.

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                            • #44
                              Originally posted by LSJohn View Post
                              Oh, me too, I was commenting on Brookeland's lack of interest.
                              Roger that. I'm also wondering why Mike Page hasn't focused his fargorate system on onepocket yet. I'm intrigued with his methods and I think it would be good for all for the cue games potentially.

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                              • #45
                                Isn't it interesting that we all know that having the break is an advantage but to statistically figure out how much an advantage is the difficult part. Too me, the table conditions might be the key to this problem. Lastly, when the ball counts when pocketed on the break, that would add statistically to the breakers advantage percentage wise.

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