Happy 4th. to you too. But I never said that Parica had a 50% chance of pocketing the 1 ball, what I said that for a player like Parica the success percentage choosing the 1 ball option would be around 50%. Let's not forget that with this shot there are other way's to succeed other than pocketing the 1 ball.
And the answer to your other question is yes, I did pocket the 1 ball carom on my first attempt. And I also agree with what you said about playing a carom off of frozen multiple balls is different than playing a carom off a singular ball. And I also said that it doesn't hurt to familiarize yourself with caroms by practicing them, then if you need to play one off of multiple balls you'll know to hit less of the first ball of the carom.
And about that losing 70% of the time by choosing another option still stands, regardless of how you play it if you don't shoot the 1 ball carom, imo.
It's all about putting the work in to understand as much as you can about the percentages of succeeding with all types of shots, isn't it? After all playing one pocket at some point you will have the option to use that understanding, and then some you haven't learned.
Dr. Bill