shooting the spot shot for the cash

[beatle]

kjh

 

[tylerdurden]

The thing is though, and maybe I am one of the chest puffers?, the strongest thing you can do is win the game (of course). That has to be factored in. What if he shoots the bank and the guy feels like a million bucks just getting back to the table and hits some amazing shot in his next couple of innings. What if you get a bad roll? In other words, if you don't shoot the spot shot there you are inviting your opponent to play well and beat you. If you do shoot it you are moving towards your goal of winning, not waiting for the other guy to make some mistake, which he may never do.

We all know what the right shot is here with 2 great players, right? Is anybody saying they are banking at that ball if SVB is your opponent? Anyway, from there you just have to realize as your percentage on that spot shot goes down, the more likelihood that the bank is the right shot.

I tend to think of these moments kinda like "if you don't take it, it will get taken from you".

 

[Bill]

not shooting the game ending spot shot and then missing the bank

can't say how relieved I am just getting back to the table

another opportunity, now let me take advantage of ...

jmo

 

[Frank Almanza]

The spot shot has a lot of pitfalls not mentioned especially after playing for three days.
First if missed and you give up a shot on it mainly because of the speed required to draw to the long rail and set the cue o the short rail. That ball could wind up anywhere. If your opponent makes it which ever way he already has the other ball on his side of the table for a possible win. Even if he doesn't get a shot you will more than likely lose table advantage. I would never shoot it like Suki suggested and run the cue ball all over the table.

Second and worse would be to dog the stroke and scratch or miss cue.

Third would be to double the points of the pocket and leave the ball there for a bank and possible loss of game or it may go toward his pocket.
After playing for so long and having missed a number of shots because of the tight pockets John didn't even hesitate to position for the bank. Not once did he even consider the spot shot.

For that situation I believe the bank is the shot.
You can position cue ball as desired to start.
You can either make the bank or get it close and maintain table advantage.
You can take the cue ball uptable and force him to dig the ball out while not give up a shot on it or the spotted ball.

I don't know about all that math, and I'm sure it has some merit but I do know what I like.

 

[tylerdurden]

Yeah, I guess it is a tough call, it all comes down to how you think I suppose. If it was me who scratched there, I would be thinking game over, I will tell you that. I would be leaping out of my chair after the guy shot the bank. This is exactly the opposite of what others are saying I realize.

For me, that is what you wait for, a great shot to win the match. What else are you going to look for, you may never even get another chance like that. The other way I'd put it is if I was not comfortable with the spot shot in that spot, I'd get comfortable with it. Shoot 800 of them for a few days. I would not be comfortable with not being comfortable to win the game from there.:heh I just think you have to shoot balls in the hole if you want to win

 

[NH Steve]

Along the lines of what Frank said, having been trading safeties for quite a while in a One Pocket battle like that was (regardless the $$), an ordinary shot like a spot shot usually plays below your normal percentages for make, because you tend to get a little out of stroke for that kind of shot. Whereas the cross-corner bank goes right with the flow of what and how you have been playing. Let's not forget, you have ball in hand for the bank, too, so your percentage is maximized in terms of setting it up for an angle you like.

One of the basic "Playing the score" principles is that even if one player has a strong advantage in the score, if the balls favor the other player then the game is a lot more of a toss-up than the score would indicate, turning missed shots into game-changers in a flash.

Good question, and no wrong answer in my opinion.

I know I would not be drawing the spot shot if I played it -- I would be going directly for the win and trying to ignore the possibility of a miss. If I caught myself thinking about drawing the spot shot that would tell me I should be banking instead, because the bank is naturally a two-way shot. Drawing the spot shot is not so natural.

 

[NH Steve]

This is the moment

This is the moment

I found the screen shot of the situation we are talking about -- you make the call!!

 

[FastEddieF.]

I like shooting spot shots,but it depends on the person playing. John is protecting his cash, and feels the bank is a free shot. TOUGH CALL

 

[bstroud]

I found the screen shot of the situation we are talking about -- you make the call!!

How can you NOT shoot the spot shot in this situation?

Perhaps others don't practice it like I do.

Bill S.

 

[wincardona]

to suki, frank and the chest puffers

here is how you figure out approximately what is the right shot.
forget about shooting for the win. or playing safe because it is for a lot of money. it all comes down to which shot gives you the highest % chance of winning the game. ( Not necessarily, the weaker the players the more the bank shot is the right shot but that doesn't mean that the bank shot is the better option in this match up)

so here goes-- john said he was 70% to make the spot shot. so he is 30% to miss. 70% he wins right there and 30% they play for the two balls. john will win say 50% of those times as he has only one to make but he is second to shoot. that is an estimate depending on how the balls lay. so john wins 85% of the time. that is the 70 plus half of the 30%. ( John will win 70% of the time by pocketing the spot shot, when he misses the spot shot he's still a favorite needing only one ball to his opponents two balls. However, when he misses the spot shot he may give up a return shot...but not likely...I would still make John a 3/2 favorite when the spot shot is missed. Which would put John at an 88% favorite to win the game by shooting the spot shot.)

now if he plays safe. say he makes the bank 30% and misses safe or close to that 70%. he should win say 60 % of those times he misses since he played more safe than the spot shot. so 30 plus 42 (.60 of 70%) = 72%.

so in my book the spot shot is right. however you adjust those % based on how the balls lay and how he will likely leave the table.

overall it gets close to which shot is best.

Another factor when deciding to shoot would be to determine the strength of your opponent. The weaker your opponent is the more the bank is the better option. If I were playing Pagulayan i'm shooting the spot shot in a heart beat. However, if i'm playing a player like The Beard i'm banking the ball.:sorry

Another factor that hasn't been discussed is ..the position of the second ball... When John shot the bank shot the second ball was positioned high on the side rail fairly close to the rail. Considering the placement of the ball imo the bank is a very low% shot, matter of fact from the angle he shot from, it was very unlikely for John to have made the bank...he was playing 90% safe as opposed to playing for the win. Now if the second ball was positioned another foot lower than the original position, then the bank now becomes more makeable with a natural safety built in. From this position the bank now becomes the better shot, imo.

Dr. Bill

 

[onepockethacker]

Another factor when deciding to shoot would be to determine the strength of your opponent. The weaker your opponent is the more the bank is the better option. If I were playing Pagulayan i'm shooting the spot shot in a heart beat. However, if i'm playing a player like The Beard i'm banking the ball.:sorry

Another factor that hasn't been discussed is ..the position of the second ball... When John shot the bank shot the second ball was positioned high on the side rail fairly close to the rail. Considering the placement of the ball imo the bank is a very low% shot, matter of fact from the angle he shot from, it was very unlikely for John to have made the bank...he was playing 90% safe as opposed to playing for the win. Now if the second ball was positioned another foot lower than the original position, then the bank now becomes more makeable with a natural safety built in. From this position the bank now becomes the better shot, imo.

Dr. Bill

Billy please refer to the SUKI thread for my 4 opinions no matter which option you choose

 

[usblues]

Pretty hard...

Pretty hard...

.....to pass on the spot shot where the other ball is.John must of had a feeling......cheers,James

 

[Fast Lenny]

I do not fault John for it at all considering the table, opponent and wager.

 

[jtompilot]

The spot shot has a lot of pitfalls not mentioned especially after playing for three days.
First if missed and you give up a shot on it mainly because of the speed required to draw to the long rail and set the cue o the short rail. That ball could wind up anywhere. If your opponent makes it which ever way he already has the other ball on his side of the table for a possible win. Even if he doesn't get a shot you will more than likely lose table advantage. I would never shoot it like Suki suggested and run the cue ball all over the table.

Second and worse would be to dog the stroke and scratch or miss cue.

Third would be to double the points of the pocket and leave the ball there for a bank and possible loss of game or it may go toward his pocket.
After playing for so long and having missed a number of shots because of the tight pockets John didn't even hesitate to position for the bank. Not once did he even consider the spot shot.

For that situation I believe the bank is the shot.
You can position cue ball as desired to start.
You can either make the bank or get it close and maintain table advantage.
You can take the cue ball uptable and force him to dig the ball out while not give up a shot on it or the spotted ball.

I don't know about all that math, and I'm sure it has some merit but I do know what I like.

I understand where your coming from. Yes I've dogged the spot shot. Yes I've scratched, but its mostly from trying to get specific shape. Here's my point.

A nice firm draw stroke will not scratch even missing the shot. Missing the draw shot usually does not leave a good return shot.

Missing the bank can leave two possible return banks. Why do that?
The last thing I want is Ghost to pick which return bank he likes best

 

[Fast Lenny]

Another reason I like Johns shot is because I believe he won the game and that is what really counts.

 

[Bill]

Another reason I like Johns shot is because I believe he won the game and that is what really counts.

'nuff said

 

[jtompilot]

I just looked at Dennis's "spot shot McDuck". I agree with What Bill had said about the position of the second ball and I would also bank from the lower ball position.

However from Johns position im shooting the spot shot. The most I've ever played for was $200 a game, I would shoot the spot shot on that Red Shoes table, firm draw. If I missed that bank and sold out two return banks I would want to shoot myself.

 

[jtompilot]

'nuff said

You can't always count on luck

 

[jrhendy]

Bank

Bank

Pay attention in the video Ghost posted to where the cue ball ended up after my bank. Up table near the rail. He had no option for a bank shot on either ball and opted for a very aggressive shot cutting in the spot shot and possibly making a game winning shot by knocking the ball by my hole (left there by my bank) into a position for a shot if he made the back cut.

I had probably missed 20 cross banks in the session and drilled the last spot I had into the rubber. I would not have shot the spot shot at that point, after being revived from the dead, with a gun at my head. The angle I took had a lower percentage to make, but was one I was confident I could get the cue ball up table near the rail, and the object ball near the hole.

The shot did what it was designed to do. Get me a better shot to win the game.

 

[wincardona]

Pay attention in the video Ghost posted to where the cue ball ended up after my bank. Up table near the rail. He had no option for a bank shot on either ball and opted for a very aggressive shot cutting in the spot shot and possibly making a game winning shot by knocking the ball by my hole (left there by my bank) into a position for a shot if he made the back cut.

I had probably missed 20 cross banks in the session and drilled the last spot I had into the rubber. I would not have shot the spot shot at that point, after being revived from the dead, with a gun at my head. The angle I took had a lower percentage to make, but was one I was confident I could get the cue ball up table near the rail, and the object ball near the hole.

The shot did what it was designed to do. Get me a better shot to win the game.

I saw where you positioned the cue ball in your attempt to shoot the bank and realized you were playing just about ..all cue ball. Your decision was a very good decision because of the way things were coming down. I myself may have played your option (the way you played it) if I were in the same situation. You battled for 3 days and you thought at that time you were the better player and wanted to stretch the game, especially needing only one ball to The Ghost's two balls. It worked out just like you planned it, good job. Now you're the Big Dog.

Dr. Bill