How Many Shots To Get Out Of Break?

tylerdurden said:

I'll just throw one or two stats out there for your other question. If you knew your games winning percentage (or a sidebetter knew it) against a guy you play in a weekly tournament, that would be a very strong indicator of what you need or don't need. Or, if you played him one hole, your percentage against him, or your percent wins when you (or he) breaks.... these could all be huge, even if only to give you a slight edge. I don't know about you guys, but in pool rooms your games are only a small part of the pie, you need to be gambling well on other games going on as well.

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TD,

I don't have a winning % against a guy I play in a weekly tournament. I didn't play tournaments and rarely did anybody play me twice. I have a very long list of guys who only played me once. Only a few times did anybody ever bet on me in a game but those same guys didn't bet against me either.

Playing somebody in a tournament does not translate well into how to play him for cash either. Two different animals and no correlation.

As to gambling on other games going as well, I never felt like being dumped so I usually bet on myself only, with a few rare exceptions. I was horrible at betting on others anyway, you could've made a living betting the other way from how I bet.

If you have any more stats that you think would be important to me I'd love to hear them. Personally, I can't think of any stat that would be important to me but I'd like to be surprised.

P.S. I did not play pool for the money, I played pool for money.

Dennis

SJDinPHX said:

I feel better now...I thought it was just me !...I sent a few of your 'rambling' posts to a friend of mine, who is a Harvard Law School Graduate, smartest guy I know...He replied, ver batum,..."This guy talks in riddles, how does he EVER expect to get his point accross"?..

You're OK Tyler...You could replace Joe Biden any day, for my cash ! ..Heres a little treat for you...Jessica makes your Jlo look kinda like Ellen, don't she ? :lol http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7f6jdM7bJcQ

Reply in MO thread...Our work (hi-jack) is done here ! :focus

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I will try to speak more clearly for you from now on, so you can better understand why you are wrong

Cowboy Dennis said:

TD,

I don't have a winning % against a guy I play in a weekly tournament. I didn't play tournaments and rarely did anybody play me twice. I have a very long list of guys who only played me once. Only a few times did anybody ever bet on me in a game but those same guys didn't bet against me either.

Playing somebody in a tournament does not translate well into how to play him for cash either. Two different animals and no correlation.

As to gambling on other games going as well, I never felt like being dumped so I usually bet on myself only, with a few rare exceptions. I was horrible at betting on others anyway, you could've made a living betting the other way from how I bet.

If you have any more stats that you think would be important to me I'd love to hear them. Personally, I can't think of any stat that would be important to me but I'd like to be surprised.

P.S. I did not play pool for the money, I played pool for money.

Dennis

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I don't think you are getting the point.

You are asking me about stats that are important? I seriously am a bit dumbfounded. HOw about if a guy asks you to shoot a straight back bank for 20 bucks a pop you know your exact percentage on it. How bout if a guy offers you the 8 and you happen to know, even though he's beaten you the last 3 sets, the GAMES won/lost are actually 50/50. How about if vegas put pool on the board, do you think they'd just flip a coin to set the odds? I don't know what to say, there are about 2 and 3 quarter million stats that should be apparent they would be helpful to you, and anybody else. Knowing you have the nuts (vs having a "feeling") results in a ton of confidence too, which is probably the most important part of pool as most everybody here knows.

Look, guys, you obviously don't think statistics can help a pool player when gambling. That is perfectly fine; I don't agree, and that is fine too. I guess that is all there is to it. Just differences of opinion.

The odd thing is, I really don't care. I really don't. If I were to start playing again seriously to make money, I may employ some of this stuff and see how it works. But I wont play again, there is just no money there. But if I did, i'd welcome the fact that nobody was doing this, so there is NO reason to go all out and try and sell this vision.

So, if you want to think knowledge is NOT power, it's fine, I actually like it that way. It is just for discussion I guess. No need to go on and on.

For me, the most interesting part of all this is that I realize now that many people don't play for actual money. They do, but the money is almost incidental - it is more about the win. The game is about romanticism and egos and all that crap. When I played it was 100% about money. Don't get me wrong, I love pool and everything about it, but when I'm really playing, it was about money. I see that isn't the case with others, and find it very surprising, I really had no idea. Honestly.

tylerdurden said:

So, if you want to think knowledge is NOT power, it's fine, I actually like it that way. It is just for discussion I guess. No need to go on and on.

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TD,

Although it has been lost to the hi-jacks, I started this thread to ask players's opinions on a stat.

Dennis

tylerdurden said:

I don't think you are getting the point.

You are asking me about stats that are important? I seriously am a bit dumbfounded. HOw about if a guy asks you to shoot a straight back bank for 20 bucks a pop you know your exact percentage on it. How bout if a guy offers you the 8 and you happen to know, even though he's beaten you the last 3 sets, the GAMES won/lost are actually 50/50.<---How will being 'armed' with THAT 'statistic', make you rich ?
How about if vegas put pool on the board, do you think they'd just flip a coin to set the odds? I don't know what to say, there are about 2 and 3 quarter million stats that should be apparent they would be helpful to you, and anybody else. Knowing you have the nuts (vs having a "feeling") results in a ton of confidence too, which is probably the most important part of pool as most everybody here knows.

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Tyler,

How about YOU, check out the latest edition of Webster's Dictionary ?... You have made the big time..Your picture is in there now, right next to the definition of the word "Opinionated"..:frus

I realize there are worse character traits, (for instance, Cowboy's picture is right next to, "irritating") but the common thread that runs through your 'opinions', is that you try to make anyone who doesn't agree with them, look like
an ill-informed idiot !..This is a sign of a VERY enlarged "ego", (a word, for which Mr. Webster just used a picture of the entire city of Chicago )

Just calm down, and as you gain some maturity, knowledge and humility... you will discover, that you are going
to be (gasp) WRONG,..waaaaay more than you will be right..:sorry

Cowboy Dennis said:

TD, Although it has been lost to the hi-jacks, I started this thread with a stat..Dennis.. <--Yes RBL, you and Tyler are a match made in heaven.

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Super "Baby Killer" McDuck<--Enjoys having Tyler and RBL around,... so HE can be
right,---98.736% of the time.

Cowboy Dennis said:

TD,

Although it has been lost to the hi-jacks, I started this thread to ask players's opinions on a stat.

Dennis

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My bad :sorry

To Duck....

Well, nobody is going to be rich in pool no matter what they know, so yes. But, what I am talking about is increasing your odds of winning within the very small slice of pie pool does offer. The only time I get opinionated in here is when I happen to know i'm right. This is why you don't see me going bonkers in the WWYD threads. But stuff like this is right up my alley, and it isn't yours, so learn to take a back seat sometimes when it comes to things outside your realm (eg the predictive power of numbers). How in the world do you think they know how close that Obama victory was going to be BEFORE the election Duck? Ha.



To Cowboy, my way of apologizing is I'll give a better thought out answer to your question. My first thought when you asked me was why do I need to hold anybody's hand and give them a warm bottle of milk

Really though, I would think the most important stats in pool would be player's game winning percentages against other players. You'd then take that stat and get more specific with it. % won against a player on a certain table, or in the last month etc. Another one would be the break stats. Your winning percentage when YOU break. Other player's winning % when they break. Winning % when break on a specific table. The thing about stats too, I'll tell you right now, is certain numbers jump out at you when you look at them. Other stats would tell you what you may need to work on, like if you hit 60% of your kicks and other guys are coming in at 90% you know you need some practice.

There was once a line of commentary on an AccuSTATS match where grady, buddy etc were talking about the TPA (total performance average). Their point was that the highest TPA shooter for an event literally won almost every time. They mentioned there was one exception, and it was Mike Sigel who won one without having the highest TPA for the tournament. The predictive power sounds quite astounding if you know what the guys are shooting say 85%of the way through the tournament. Just another example.

tylerdurden said:

To Duck....

Well, nobody is going to be rich in pool no matter what they know, so yes. But, what I am talking about is increasing your odds of winning within the very small slice of pie pool does offer. The only time I get opinionated in here is when I happen to know i'm right.(eg the predictive power of numbers). How in the world do you think they know how close that Obama victory was going to be BEFORE the election Duck? Ha.

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Tyler,

Once again, I have NO idea what you are rambling on about.???...I do know, that I bet on Obama, to win both elections (for some good $$$) very early on in the process...And I had to lay pretty good odds in some spots...That is NOT called 'the predictive power of numbers', that is called STEALING !...

Even though I think Obama, will go down in history, as the most disruptive, corruptive, and the WORST president in the history of the U.S, that does not mean I would bet against him..Thats because I know the lazy, entitlement seeker's, now FAR outnumber the intelligent people among us !...But, It has absolutely NOTHING to do with 'statistics' !..It has to do with knowing how to bet my $$$ !......Tyler, please don't tell me, with all your other confused misconceptions, you are also a 'DEMOCRAT' ??? ..

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Statistics work just fine, in baseball, and bowling...but they don't mean much in the real world.. (ask Mr. Soro's) ..Stay alert..Stay alive, is my motto...

SJDinPHX said:

Stay alert..Stay alive...Stay in the Members Forum with this political crap, is my motto.

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I fixed it for you hairball.

RBL

Tom Wirth said:

Dennis, You wrote: "Asking people if they'd like to break in a hill-hill match is a little disingenous to me."

Why's that?
It is exactly the point I am making. No one here would turn their back on taking the break in this situation. And for good reason. So why not practice the shot with equal diligence? You seem to have little regard for the break in One Pocket. Maybe you would change your mind about it's importance if you practiced it more often. I'm just guessing here.

And do you think I am basing my thoughts only on this one example? I've been playing this game for over fourty years. Do you think that tournament is the only time I've made balls on the break with any consistancy? Please!

Though I agree that practicing the reply to the break is of great importance I place equal importance to learning to fine tune the break. Beside shooting the winning ball in, the break and the following shot IMO are the two most important shots in the game. I can't see how anyone could possibly disagree with that thinking. You included. What is the point you are trying to make in diminishing the importance of a key element of the game?

Tom

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Uh, yep, that's what I think.

tylerdurden said:

As was pointed out here, others who even have family's have as well. Unsung, but we all know they are there.

In your last paragraph, i'm really not wanting to change them, just saying that I am not that impressed with their "winnings"... yet I enjoy watching them just like anybody else. But I would tend to respect the actual winners myself.

I'll just throw one or two stats out there for your other question. If you knew your games winning percentage (or a sidebetter knew it) against a guy you play in a weekly tournament, that would be a very strong indicator of what you need or don't need. Or, if you played him one hole, your percentage against him, or your percent wins when you (or he) breaks.... these could all be huge, even if only to give you a slight edge. I don't know about you guys, but in pool rooms your games are only a small part of the pie, you need to be gambling well on other games going on as well.

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Even this can have huge variables.
I know lots of people who play great for 5, 10 or maybe even 20 dollars , for 100 they can't beat anybody .
The bet should not make a difference, but often it does.
Back to the original question, it never mattered to me how many shots it took, I just knew I was going to keep trying to get out of it, even if it took all day.