Odds Question

sappo

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Lets says we have 2 sets of players. Player A plays player B and gives player B 12-6. They play with this spot a lot and its an even match. There is also player C who gives player D 15-5 and that spot makes an even game. My question is what money line odds would be correct for each set of players if they played even 8-8?

Please everyone give me your opinions and Im hoping we will hear from Doc Bill and Artie. thanks keith
 

LSJohn

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Lets says we have 2 sets of players. Player A plays player B and gives player B 12-6. They play with this spot a lot and its an even match. There is also player C who gives player D 15-5 and that spot makes an even game. My question is what money line odds would be correct for each set of players if they played even 8-8?

Please everyone give me your opinions and Im hoping we will hear from Doc Bill and Artie. thanks keith

When I saw the headline I was hoping it would be something I knew something about; I don't.

You did say "everyone" so I'll let fly anyway.

12-6 = 5:2 game by game, 5:1 race to 5.

15-5 = 5:1 game by game. Race to 5, take the strong player and give whatever odds you have to. I don't think you'll ever lose a set before L. Ron Hubbard comes back. :D
 

wincardona

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When I saw the headline I was hoping it would be something I knew something about; I don't.

You did say "everyone" so I'll let fly anyway.

12-6 = 5:2 game by game, 5:1 race to 5.

15-5 = 5:1 game by game. Race to 5, take the strong player and give whatever odds you have to. I don't think you'll ever lose a set before L. Ron Hubbard comes back. :D

John, I believe Keith is looking for the odds for these two different set's of players playing one another to win a game, not a set.

The question Keith has is a very difficult question to give a "blanket" answer to because of the many different conditions that a contest of this kind could be played under, which in turn would change the odds of the outcome. Not only are we talking about conditions but the players skill set as well.

Take a player like myself who has a respected skill set, and then slate me against a player like Pagulayan playing even. Lets assume that Pagulayan can give me 10/5 and it's an even game. Then take a player that plays 10/5 under me, and I play that player even. Imo the chances of me winning a game against Pagulayan are better than the player i'm playing to win a game against me even, why would I say that? My skill set will give me a better chance to limit Pagulayan from what he does so well more than the player that i'm playing will have in limiting me because his skill set is not high enough to control a game. It's mostly about the weaker player than it is about the stronger player when it comes to a one game contest playing a game like one pocket where if a person has a high enough skill set he can beat anyone one game.

I mentioned conditions, and how different conditions can affect the out come of games. Yes the tougher the conditions the less likely the weaker player will have in doing the unexpected. Weaker players playing good players in an even contest needs conditions that allow them to play the game comfortably to increase their chances of winning. So, conditions are also a factor when trying to come up with an accurate assessment of the odds needed to make the contest even.

Then finally we need to look at the amount of skill that the contest has to determine if it's even possible for the weaker player to win. Lets take a "foot race" as an example. Lets assume that I can give you 10 yards in a 100 yard foot race and it's a close race. It would be very hard for you to beat me without the 10 yards, but possible. Now lets assume that I can give you 20 yards in a 100 yard race, well without the 20 yards there is no way you will beat me unless I fall down or stop running. So, skill level is vitally important to determine the odds for players competing against one another in an even contest,however, in a contest where the stronger player will have the benefit of exercising his skill set to the fullest then the weaker player has less of a chance to win..like a foot race.

Playing one pocket to determine who is the better player and by how much is not like evaluating a foot race, there are many variables that need to be considered, along with all the uncertainties that will transpire that clouds one's ability to accurately assess the odds for certain players playing weaker players even, in a game of one pocket.:confused: Yes we can kinda come up with a reasonable answer to a player that is 10/5 under another player, playing even, by the game and it would be reasonably close but when you try to come up with an answer for players in the C and D set where the better player is 15 to 5 over the weaker player playing even, it's starting to sound more like a "foot race" kinda.

My guess that in the A and B set 10/5 would equate to around 4, 5, or possibly 6 to one, depending on the weaker players skill set. Now for the C and D set, (15-5) well it's way up there, maybe like in a foot race.:heh

Dr. Bill
 
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LSJohn

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J Imo the chances of me winning a game against Pagulayan are better than the player i'm playing to win a game against me even,
Dr. Bill

That's what I was thinking, and I was figuring Keith was talking about skilled players, maybe even himself.

I think 12-6 is pretty close between you and Alex. What would you think of 5:2 playing 8-8?
 

sappo

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John, I believe Keith is looking for the odds for these two different set's of players playing one another to win a game, not a set.

The question Keith has is a very difficult question to give a "blanket" answer to because of the many different conditions that a contest of this kind could be played under, which in turn would change the odds of the outcome. Not only are we talking about conditions but the players skill set as well.

Take a player like myself who has a respected skill set, and then slate me against a player like Pagulayan playing even. Lets assume that Pagulayan can give me 10/5 and it's an even game. Then take a player that plays 10/5 under me, and I play that player even. Imo the chances of me winning a game against Pagulayan are better than the player i'm playing to win a game against me even, why would I say that? My skill set will give me a better chance to limit Pagulayan from what he does so well more than the player that i'm playing will have in limiting me because his skill set is not high enough to control a game. It's mostly about the weaker player than it is about the stronger player when it comes to a one game contest playing a game like one pocket where if a person has a high enough skill set he can beat anyone one game.

I mentioned conditions, and how different conditions can affect the out come of games. Yes the tougher the conditions the less likely the weaker player will have in doing the unexpected. Weaker players playing good players in an even contest needs conditions that allow them to play the game comfortably to increase their chances of winning. So, conditions are also a factor when trying to come up with an accurate assessment of the odds needed to make the contest even.

Then finally we need to look at the amount of skill that the contest has to determine if it's even possible for the weaker player to win. Lets take a "foot race" as an example. Lets assume that I can give you 10 yards in a 100 yard foot race and it's a close race. It would be very hard for you to beat me without the 10 yards, but possible. Now lets assume that I can give you 20 yards in a 100 yard race, well without the 20 yards there is no way you will beat me unless I fall down or stop running. So, skill level is vitally important to determine the odds for players competing against one another in an even contest,however, in a contest where the stronger player will have the benefit of exercising his skill set to the fullest then the weaker player has less of a chance to win..like a foot race.

Playing one pocket to determine who is the better player and by how much is not like evaluating a foot race, there are many variables that need to be considered, along with all the uncertainties that will transpire that clouds one's ability to accurately assess the odds for certain players playing weaker players even, in a game of one pocket.:confused: Yes we can kinda come up with a reasonable answer to a player that is 10/5 under another player, playing even, by the game and it would be reasonably close but when you try to come up with an answer for players in the C and D set where the better player is 15 to 5 over the weaker player playing even, it's starting to sound more like a "foot race" kinda.

My guess that in the A and B set 10/5 would equate to around 4, 5, or possibly 6 to one, depending on the weaker players skill set. Now for the C and D set, (15-5) well it's way up there, maybe like in a foot race.:heh

Dr. Bill

Thanks for the response Doc, your analysis is along my thinking. I guess the only way to know the true line would be to have the 2 players set a number to start,adjust that number over time until they started to break even on their sessions over a long period of time.

I am very curious what the C and D matchup would ultimately be. There is obviously a correct money line for any 2 players just much harder to handicap than a ball spot.

What do you think the line would be for Scott and Dippy? While it would be a very large number there is a correct/fair number. And there is no doubt that Dippy would win a game now and then.

I would like to hear from anyone that has played one pocket with a money line. thanks keith
 

wincardona

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Thanks for the response Doc, your analysis is along my thinking. I guess the only way to know the true line would be to have the 2 players set a number to start,adjust that number over time until they started to break even on their sessions over a long period of time.

I am very curious what the C and D matchup would ultimately be. There is obviously a correct money line for any 2 players just much harder to handicap than a ball spot.

What do you think the line would be for Scott and Dippy? While it would be a very large number there is a correct/fair number. And there is no doubt that Dippy would win a game now and then.

I would like to hear from anyone that has played one pocket with a money line. thanks keith

Though there may be many players that have played one pocket using a money line I doubt that any of them used a money line solely to determine what a 18 to 4 underdog price would be. I certainly have never heard of anyone doing it. In football the house puts a money line on every team to win the Super Bowl, the odds on a team like Jacksonville would be 500 to 1, of course you can only take it, no telling what you would have to lay to bet they wouldn't win the Super Bowl.:lol When you're talking about a player that is getting 15/5 in a ball spot it would be possible to put a money line on it but since there has never been (to my recollection) a money line posted anywhere or a contest recorded in any way referencing it there really isn't a way to even begin thinking where to start. Playing a game of skill where the disparity difference is as large as this one it becomes difficult to put a money line up, and then when we're talking about putting up a money line on two players playing one pocket where the stronger player is 20 to 3 the better player, there isn't a number high enough to assess it accurately. If time permitted along with all other factors in trying to determine what the money line would be through trial, it would be more than a million to one.

Putting a money line up for a match between two players where the strong player is a 15/5 ball favorite, I wouldn't be afraid to lay 20/1 on the favorite to win playing even..by the game. Maybe i'm wrong, if so i'm only going to be wrong once.:lol That's one of the main reasons why players won't put a money line up as a way of matching up..who can afford, or even offer what would be fair if the dog would win?

I probably didn't help you with my post, like I said, it's very difficult to answer your question..at least by me.

Dr. Bill
 

androd

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Though there may be many players that have played one pocket using a money line I doubt that any of them used a money line solely to determine what a 18 to 4 underdog price would be. I certainly have never heard of anyone doing it. In football the house puts a money line on every team to win the Super Bowl, the odds on a team like Jacksonville would be 500 to 1, of course you can only take it, no telling what you would have to lay to bet they wouldn't win the Super Bowl.:lol When you're talking about a player that is getting 15/5 in a ball spot it would be possible to put a money line on it but since there has never been (to my recollection) a money line posted anywhere or a contest recorded in any way referencing it there really isn't a way to even begin thinking where to start. Playing a game of skill where the disparity difference is as large as this one it becomes difficult to put a money line up, and then when we're talking about putting up a money line on two players playing one pocket where the stronger player is 20 to 3 the better player, there isn't a number high enough to assess it accurately. If time permitted along with all other factors in trying to determine what the money line would be through trial, it would be more than a million to one.

Putting a money line up for a match between two players where the strong player is a 15/5 ball favorite, I wouldn't be afraid to lay 20/1 on the favorite to win playing even..by the game. Maybe i'm wrong, if so i'm only going to be wrong once.:lol That's one of the main reasons why players won't put a money line up as a way of matching up..who can afford, or even offer what would be fair if the dog would win?

I probably didn't help you with my post, like I said, it's very difficult to answer your question..at least by me.

Dr. Bill

20/1 shouldn't be a problem, the dog would have to win one out of forty games to break even.
Probably couldn't do it.
Rod.
P.S. Unless I get lucky. :p
 

wincardona

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20/1 shouldn't be a problem, the dog would have to win one out of forty games to break even.
Probably couldn't do it.
Rod.
P.S. Unless I get lucky. :p
This is the first time I busted you on your percentages being wrong. If the dog won only one game in forty getting 20/1 odds he would be 19 games loser.

Now you really have no chance.:D;)


Dr. Bill
 

Jeff sparks

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Converting ball spots to a money line by the game would definitely be tricky.
A major consideration IMO would be the ability of the weaker ( spotted ) player to run balls, getting to 8 against a world class player even in a single game would be nearly impossible for a player who could not run 4 balls. A great player would rarely make two horrible mistakes in a single game.


However if for example the player in question had the capability to run 8, like Dr. Bill, then anyone giving him a price of 7/1 per game playing even would have his hands full trying to win the money. Even though he would break even at a 10/5 ball spot playing a world class player, he's gonna get 8 more times than 1 out of every 7 games IMO.

So if I were trying to make a money line for a good/great player on a per game basis, I would definitely want to know how many mistakes the better player could make, and still win the game. JMO
 

sappo

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Converting ball spots to a money line by the game would definitely be tricky.
A major consideration IMO would be the ability of the weaker ( spotted ) player to run balls, getting to 8 against a world class player even in a single game would be nearly impossible for a player who could not run 4 balls. A great player would rarely make two horrible mistakes in a single game.


However if for example the player in question had the capability to run 8, like Dr. Bill, then anyone giving him a price of 7/1 per game playing even would have his hands full trying to win the money. Even though he would break even at a 10/5 ball spot playing a world class player, he's gonna get 8 more times than 1 out of every 7 games IMO.

So if I were trying to make a money line for a good/great player on a per game basis, I would definitely want to know how many mistakes the better player could make, and still win the game. JMO

Hi Jeff, thanks for your input. I agree with what you said but then in your example Dr Bill getting 7-1 wouldn't be the correct odds. Im certain that there is a correct line that makes any match up an even game. The problem is there is no way to figure out that number without a lot of playing and adjusting the line till the point where the 2 players are breaking even.

I was hoping when I posted this that someone had previous experience playing this way and could come up with some solid numbers. thanks again keith
 

Jeff sparks

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Hi Jeff, thanks for your input. I agree with what you said but then in your example Dr Bill getting 7-1 wouldn't be the correct odds. Im certain that there is a correct line that makes any match up an even game. The problem is there is no way to figure out that number without a lot of playing and adjusting the line till the point where the 2 players are breaking even.

I was hoping when I posted this that someone had previous experience playing this way and could come up with some solid numbers. thanks again keith


Even though 7/1 might not be exact, IMO, it ain't far off. Might need minor tweaking.

P.S. Who would you take, Alex or Bill at say 5/1 on Bills break and 6/1 on Alex's break?
 
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LSJohn

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Even though 7/1 might not be exact, IMO, it ain't far off. Might need minor tweaking.

P.S. Who would you take, Alex or Bill at say 5/1 on Bills break and 6/1 on Alex's break?

I want Bill in either of those. I think 7:2, 9:2 is more like it. Bill is gonna win a lot of games even. You want to take Alex in a race to 4 and give Bill 3 on the wire? I'm your man. :D
 

sappo

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Even though 7/1 might not be exact, IMO, it ain't far off. Might need minor tweaking.

P.S. Who would you take, Alex or Bill at say 5/1 on Bills break and 6/1 on Alex's break?

Jeff, at those numbers i would probably take Bill.

who would you take, Alex or Bill at 4-1 on Bills break and 41/2-1 on Alex's break?
 

Jeff sparks

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Jeff, at those numbers i would probably take Bill.

who would you take, Alex or Bill at 4-1 on Bills break and 41/2-1 on Alex's break?


Ok guys,

Now we are getting to the nitty gritty of it!! Maybe that's the perfect way to arrive at THE NUMBER!!! Put up a who would you take for real dollars and see who does what!

P.S. I can name that tune in....... notes
 

sappo

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Ok guys,

Now we are getting to the nitty gritty of it!! Maybe that's the perfect way to arrive at THE NUMBER!!! Put up a who would you take for real dollars and see who does what!

P.S. I can name that tune in....... notes

yeah, but who do you like at these numbers?
 

Jeff sparks

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yeah, but who do you like at these numbers?

Well,

It's not gonna prove anything without an actual match taking place.
Once that happens, it's not gonna take long to figure out who's got the best of it.

And if it just happens that the two spar over it for a few hours without a clear winner, then you could technically say you have made a pretty good money line.

Make sense?
 

LSJohn

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yeah, but who do you like at these numbers?

I think I like Bill to win one out of five. That's only 4:1. I'd gamble at 9:2 and love 5:1.

My $.02: I think you guys are under-rating Bill's ability to slow Alex Down. He'll do it almost as well as Scott overall, and much better in many situations.... and he can still run balls. He may be dippy at times, but he's not Dippy. :D
 

Jeff sparks

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I want Bill in either of those. I think 7:2, 9:2 is more like it. Bill is gonna win a lot of games even. You want to take Alex in a race to 4 and give Bill 3 on the wire? I'm your man. :

By a lot, what do you mean. 3/10? Surely not 4/10?

If I had to handicap it, I'd say you're very close at the 3 1/2 to 1 figure. I wouldn't want to take Alex at 4/1 and I wouldn't want Bill at 3/1.

So, 3 1/2 pick-em is my #. You gotta bet both on both breaks!
 
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