Shot Choice

Here's a situation that came up for me the other day in a game - I've had this same situation come up other times too, and it's a simple, but interesting example of a one pocket shot decision.....It's my shot, the top pocket is mine, I need both balls and my opponent (customer ) needs one.......My decision is whether to pocket the sure-thing 1 ball and then play a safety (there's too much angle to hold the cue ball for a bank on the 5 ball with my next shot), settling for playing it out from there with the score tied 7 to 7......Or, give up making the 1 and being on the hill, and instead gambling to get out right there by shooting the 5 ball two-railer, which is laying just about straight on, hoping to make it and then shoot the 1 ball in for the win - If I choose this option, I would shoot the 5 at pocket speed and draw back a little and try to snooker my opponent with the 1 ball in the event that I miss the 5........If I remember right, the coupla times I was in this situation I went for the two-railer and the win - just couldn't resist it.

So I'm curious which shot my fellow experienced one pocket players/onepocket.orgers would choose in this spot - Freddy, Steve, Doc, John Henderson, S.J.Dick, etc. etc. which shot would you choose ?........Here's the table layout >>>



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%KB4B8%LB8B6%MB5\6%NA7\3%OA8B4%Po4E3
)END
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Stay the "move up"

Stay the "move up"

One Pocket Ghost said:

Here's a situation that came up for me the other day in a game - I've had this same situation come up other times too, and it's a simple, but interesting example of a one pocket shot decision.....It's my shot, the top pocket is mine, I need both balls and my opponent (customer ) needs one.......My decision is whether to pocket the sure-thing 1 ball and then play a safety (there's too much angle to hold the cue ball for a bank on the 5 ball with my next shot), settling for playing it out from there with the score tied 7 to 7......Or, give up making the 1 and being on the hill, and instead gambling to get out right there by shooting the 5 ball two-railer, which is laying just about straight on, hoping to make it and then shoot the 1 ball in for the win - If I choose this option, I would shoot the 5 at pocket speed and draw back a little and try to snooker my opponent with the 1 ball in the event that I miss the 5........If I remember right, the coupla times I was in this situation I went for the two-railer and the win - just couldn't resist it.

So I'm curious which shot my fellow experienced one pocket players/onepocket.orgers would choose in this spot - Freddy, Steve, Doc, John Henderson, S.J.Dick, etc. etc. which shot would you choose ?........Here's the table layout >>>



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%Aa3E9%BB2\6%CB7B6%DB4B5%Er9H4%FB6\2%GB5B5%HB6B4%IB6B5%JB2B7
%KB3\6%LB5\4%MB9\3%NB1\0%OB2\5%Po5E2
)END

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A great example of mine and Artie B's philosophy. Shoot the 2 railer, and no matter what happens with that choice you remain the "move up." Make it you can win, miss it your opponent is forced to play defense and remain the "move down." In big pressure games, with cue ball in hand, Artie would often pass up the spot shot and take a passover cross corner bank instead, either making the bank or leaving the cue ball up table and the ball in front of his pocket. Taking no chances on missing the spot shot and giving up "the move."

the Beard

For the cheese, I'd probably cinch the one-ball, float the CB over to the opposite side rail, attempting to get a thin bank angle on the five-ball.

For cheap, or for fun, I'd definitely try the standard 2-railer on the five-ball. The problem with that shot is, unless the five-ball pockets, or hangs in the jaws, the opponent is going to have a makeable cut or bank on the one-ball to his hole.

BTW, the two times you went for the 2-railer, how did it come out?

Doc

Shot choice

Shot choice

Why not shoot the one and draw the cue ball, and then two-rail the five in the corner and bring it off the bottom rail just beyond the side pocket, and back across toward your pocket?

vapros said:

Why not shoot the one and draw the cue ball, and then two-rail the five in the corner and bring it off the bottom rail just beyond the side pocket, and back across toward your pocket?

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That back-up three-railer you are talking about varies a great deal depending on how long or short the table is playing -- I think it's easy to have that shot get away from you.

With my inferior ball-pocketing skills, I would definitely be cinching the one, not drawing it, if I did shoot it.

I know I have often played the equivalent of the two-railer in situations such as this. However, it is pretty frustrating to pass on that one ball, and then end up having your opponent knock away the five when your bank doesn't go, and you are left empty handed! So in this situation I probably cinch the one.

If you do bank two rails at the five, that one ball still sits far enough away from your likely cue ball re-location so that you actually have to hit the two-railer pretty well to leave it snookered -- let alone make it.

I totally agree, Steve. The backup three rail can easily be pocketed in the side or even worse, hit the point and leave the ball straight in. Hit it long and the guy can cut it in. Bad choice. I like the two rail 5 to start with, needing both balls.

One Pocket Ghost said:

Here's a situation that came up for me the other day in a game - I've had this same situation come up other times too, and it's a simple, but interesting example of a one pocket shot decision.....It's my shot, the top pocket is mine, I need both balls and my opponent (customer ) needs one.......My decision is whether to pocket the sure-thing 1 ball and then play a safety (there's too much angle to hold the cue ball for a bank on the 5 ball with my next shot), settling for playing it out from there with the score tied 7 to 7......Or, give up making the 1 and being on the hill, and instead gambling to get out right there by shooting the 5 ball two-railer, which is laying just about straight on, hoping to make it and then shoot the 1 ball in for the win - If I choose this option, I would shoot the 5 at pocket speed and draw back a little and try to snooker my opponent with the 1 ball in the event that I miss the 5........If I remember right, the coupla times I was in this situation I went for the two-railer and the win - just couldn't resist it.

So I'm curious which shot my fellow experienced one pocket players/onepocket.orgers would choose in this spot - Freddy, Steve, Doc, John Henderson, S.J.Dick, etc. etc. which shot would you choose ?........Here's the table layout >>>



START(
%Aa3E9%BB2\6%CB7B6%DB4B5%Er9H4%FB6\2%GB5B5%HB6B4%IB6B5%JB2B7
%KB3\6%LB5\4%MB9\3%NB1\0%OB2\5%Po5E2
)END

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If I was sure I could bank the two railer & hide the ball if I missed, I would take the bank. The other ways I would shoot the bank was if I had been running some balls to get back in the game and had some confidence & momentum going. This plays a big part in my shot selection. I also might shoot the bank if I am in a long safety battle and think I might miss the fairly easy shot to the hole. If I'm stuck enough I go for everything LOL.

I agree with Freddy, 2 rail the 5 for both your money and mine. It keeps you in total control of the game, puts both balls you need into play, and with good pocket speed and CB control you may even double him up and leave the CB on the rail if you miss. Running the game is what one-pocket is all about.

Well, the majority of votes seem to be favoring shooting the 2-railer, and in most all cases I agree, and would also choose the 2-railer.......The only thing that might sway me into pocketing the 1 ball instead of shooting the 2-railer, is if I have a big-time moving advantage over my opponent, which would make me a pretty big favorite playing him at 7 to 7.

One Pocket Ghost said:

Well, the majority of votes seem to be favoring shooting the 2-railer, and in most all cases I agree, and would also choose the 2-railer.......The only thing that might sway me into pocketing the 1 ball instead of shooting the 2-railer, is if I have a big-time moving advantage over my opponent, which would make me a pretty big favorite playing him at 7 to 7.

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I tried this set up against myself and made the two-railer and got out the first try but then didn't make it about 5 or 6 times, but all but about one time the five was in some kind of akward spot. I decided I liked that shot better than doing battle 7 - 7 -- and MUCH better than the embarassment of missing the one on a failed cinch!

I seem to be a minority here, but trailing 7-6, I don't really like any approach that doesn't start by knocking down the one ball and remaining at the table. I think if you shoot the five first, you'd better make it or leave it mighty close to your pocket - like closer than about four inches. Otherwise, I like the other guy's end of it.

Also, if you shoot the five, do you want to leave the cue ball frozen on the short rail or try to bring it off a bit for an easier shot on the one? At this point you don't know who shoots next.

One Pocket Ghost said:

My decision is whether to pocket the sure-thing 1 ball and then play a safety (there's too much angle to hold the cue ball for a bank on the 5 ball with my next shot), settling for playing it out from there with the score tied 7 to 7......Or, give up making the 1 and being on the hill, and instead gambling to get out right there by shooting the 5 ball two-railer, which is laying just about straight on, hoping to make it and then shoot the 1 ball in for the win

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I posed this scenario on the AZB site, Ghost. If I needed one and my opponent needed two, and I left my opponent this shot, I sure as hell would hope he would shoot to cinch the one! Even if the 2 railer did not fall, I would have to be an underdog from that position 80-90% of the time.

what is the value of a ball ?

what is the value of a ball ?

Bruce I answered your question on AZB ,and you said my reasoning was irrelevant. I would prefer to shoot the two railer on loose pockets and shoot the one, on triple shimmed pockets. MY reasoning is that balls are worth more on triple shimmed pockets,so cinch the one and play safe on the five. On loose pockets shoot the two railer because ,#1 you will make the shot more often and hang it more often,in either case you will be a huge favorite.#2 If you miss the two railer and your opponent successfully escapes the trap, you will be able to win more often on loose pockets needing two balls to his one Also the better the players are, the more the two railer is the correct shot, reasoning being that excellent players needing two balls to their opponents one ball is less of a dog than weaker players with the same challenge. Balls are worth more to weaker players,and they are worth more on triple shimmed pockets for any player.Read my prop on your thread #40 on AZB and I will gamble on my opinion.

I can also break this down in terms of probability and explain why one shot opposed to another is correct mathematically. In this instance shooting the two railer for a top player is the correct shot because on 4 1/2 inch pockets he should pocket the two railer at least once out of four attempts. The three times the ball is missed ,he will win that game at least 40% of the time,resulting in a 120 to 180 deficit in terms of games won.So the 1 out of 4 the two railer is pocketed is plus 1 game,plus the 1.2 games he picks up on the 3 remaining games that the two railer is not pocketed gives him a win % of 2.2 opposed to his opponents 1.8, which makes him an 11/9 favorite which is better than 6/5. Speaking conservatively,for a top player.

what is the penalty?

what is the penalty?

fred bentivegna said:

A great example of mine and Artie B's philosophy. Shoot the 2 railer, and no matter what happens with that choice you remain the "move up." Make it you can win, miss it your opponent is forced to play defense and remain the "move down." In big pressure games, with cue ball in hand, Artie would often pass up the spot shot and take a passover cross corner bank instead, either making the bank or leaving the cue ball up table and the ball in front of his pocket. Taking no chances on missing the spot shot and giving up "the move."

the Beard

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Beard , i'm not disagreeing with your choice ,but your reasoning why Artie chose to cross bank the ball instead of shooting the spot shot was because of the penalty it carried if he missed the spot shot. This is a completely differen't prop that carrries very little penalty if any if the one ball is missed.

Am i really that old?

Am i really that old?

wincardona said:

Bruce I answered your question on AZB ,and you said my reasoning was irrelevant. I would prefer to shoot the two railer on loose pockets and shoot the one, on triple shimmed pockets. MY reasoning is that balls are worth more on triple shimmed pockets,so cinch the one and play safe on the five. On loose pockets shoot the two railer because ,#1 you will make the shot more often and hang it more often,in either case you will be a huge favorite.#2 If you miss the two railer and your opponent successfully escapes the trap, you will be able to win more often on loose pockets needing two balls to his one Also the better the players are the more the two railer is the correct shot, reasoning being that excellent players needing two balls to their opponents one ball is less of a dog than weaker players with the same challenge. Balls are worth more to weaker players,and they are worth more on triple shimmed pockets for any player.Read my prop on your thread #40 on AZB and I will gamble on my opinion.

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I must really be getting old when I find myself agreeing with Cardone. I concur with his triple-shimmed logic (go for 1 on the tuff table and try to get out on the easier one). My original answer was based on regulation pockets.

Giving up the "move" was the real point

Giving up the "move" was the real point

wincardona said:

Beard , i'm not disagreeing with your choice ,but your reasoning why Artie chose to cross bank the ball instead of shooting the spot shot was because of the penalty it carried if he missed the spot shot. This is a completely differen't prop that carrries very little penalty if any if the one ball is missed.

Click to expand...

My main point in my shot selection, and I may have used a weak example when I mentioned Artie's shot choice, was to illustrate how important it is to keep a "move up." Let's face it Willy, you, of all people, have made a career out of staying a "move up." Amazingly, that ultra-strong piece of 1pkt knowledge has flown over many heads.

the Beard

Giving up the "move" was the real point

Giving up the "move" was the real point

wincardona said:

Beard , i'm not disagreeing with your choice ,but your reasoning why Artie chose to cross bank the ball instead of shooting the spot shot was because of the penalty it carried if he missed the spot shot. This is a completely differen't prop that carrries very little penalty if any if the one ball is missed.

Click to expand...

My main point in my shot selection, and I may have used a weak example when I mentioned Artie's shot choice, was to illustrate how important it is to keep a "move up." Let's face it Willy, you, of all people, have made a career out of staying a "move up." Amazingly, that ultra-strong piece of 1pkt knowledge has flown over many heads.

the Beard

I made a living???

I made a living???

fred bentivegna said:

My main point in my shot selection, and I may have used a weak example when I mentioned Artie's shot choice, was to illustrate how important it is to keep a "move up." Let's face it Willy, you, of all people, have made a career out of staying a "move up." Amazingly, that ultra-strong piece of 1pkt knowledge has flown over many heads.

the Beard

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Beard, you say I made a living keeping a move up,but you failed to mention that you are the master with the keeping a move up strategy, as illustrated here by agreeing with me on my rebuttal to your post. I found out that life, much like one pocket is better served by staying a move ahead,something that you have always tried to do,and with great success. What I also believe is that you can tell a lot about how a person treats life when you watch that person play onepocket.For instance,your squeezing for every ball strategy clearly describes your style of the red knuckled grip on how you live your life (real carefully) Now take Keith McCready,bless his heart, he shoots at his hole every shot,as if missing didn't carry a penalty.Pardon me for digressing.

Bruce started a very interesting thread on shot selection ,

I made a living???

I made a living???

fred bentivegna said:

My main point in my shot selection, and I may have used a weak example when I mentioned Artie's shot choice, was to illustrate how important it is to keep a "move up." Let's face it Willy, you, of all people, have made a career out of staying a "move up." Amazingly, that ultra-strong piece of 1pkt knowledge has flown over many heads.

the Beard

Click to expand...

Beard, you say I made a living keeping a move up,but you failed to mention that you are the master with the keeping a move up strategy, as illustrated here by agreeing with me on my rebuttal to your post. I found out that life, much like one pocket is better served by staying a move ahead,something that you have always tried to do,and with great success. What I also believe is that you can tell a lot about how a person treats life when you watch that person play onepocket.For instance,your squeezing for every ball strategy clearly describes your style of the red knuckled grip on how you live your life (real carefully) Now take Keith McCready,bless his heart, he shoots at his hole every shot,as if missing didn't carry a penalty.Pardon me for digressing.

Bruce started a very interesting thread on shot selection , but what he failed to convey is that choosing the correct shot isn't black and white,it varies in many ways. For instance the score of the game will often dictate what the correct shot is and the conditions that your playing under will also dictate to you the better shot,also the strength of the players is another important factor when deciding the correct shot,so his question on what is the correct shot is impossible to answer when presented to the masses. The correct shot for him is not the correct shot for many other players based on style,shot making ability,and possibly speed controll ability.There are many variables to consider when choosing the correct shot,that's what makes onepocket such an interesting,and entertaining game, much like the game of life.

wincardona said:

Bruce started a very interesting thread on shot selection , but what he failed to convey is that choosing the correct shot isn't black and white,it varies in many ways. For instance the score of the game will often dictate what the correct shot is and the conditions that your playing under will also dictate to you the better shot,also the strength of the players is another important factor when deciding the correct shot,so his question on what is the correct shot is impossible to answer when presented to the masses. The correct shot for him is not the correct shot for many other players based on style,shot making ability,and possibly speed controll ability.There are many variables to consider when choosing the correct shot,that's what makes onepocket such an interesting,and entertaining game, much like the game of life.

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Billy, I love ya, and I'm glad you like this thread, but, you misquoted me and misrepresented my one pocket thinking:

If you go back and read my posts, I never said that there was a 'correct' choice in this situation, I just asked which choice everybody here on the forum would choose...........And I also never said that the choice was black and white - on the contrary, in the last post that I made (02-13-2008, 08:18 PM), I stated how a certain factor could 'greyify' my decision............And lastly, I teach one pocket, and that said, I would never advise someone to choose a shot based on it being the right shot for me, rather than it being the right shot for them - this thinking has been documented, here's an excerpt from the thread I posted last year about my one pocket philosophy >>>

"Your shot choice should always be predicated on your correct analysis of several factors, the main ones being: Table layout, ball score, match score, and the one pocket style, skill level, heart, and ego size of your opponent….And of course all shot choices must factor in your own skill set/abilities."

If you want to read the rest of what I wrote, here's the link >>>

http://www.onepocket.org/forum/showthread.php?t=1501

- Ghost