The Percentages in the "Wrong Shot"

tylerdurden · Jul 24, 2014

Let's just say for the sake of argument and discussion you are faced with an offensive shot you will make 40% of the time, and you are going to have to hit it pretty dang hard to execute it. At the same time, you do have some defensive opportunities, but they are not really going to be game openers or anything. Is it an easy choice? The point of this thread is I think we should be thinking about firing at this stuff more often. Let's go through some possible scenarios.

What if you fire this off angled shot in and run out behind it? Stuff like this can extend beyond being a game winner.... shots like this can turn into set winners by way of making your opponent shrivel.

You miss by 2 diamonds and leave the guy 4 hangers. Ok, this isn't so great of course, but I really think there is some things to discuss with this option. How do you think a guy feels when you are playing him and you just kinda shoot the most obvious shot percentage wise every time you get to the table, and you bunt every time you can. Guys get comfortable. It doesn't matter how good you are playing, you may be making him play his best pool as well via your shot selection. Shoot a very strong shot like this and it can make a guy think, no doubt.

I have seen some of the best players that ever lived kinda fly off the cuff and play like this quite often. I know people go bonkers over Ronnie's shot selection, but from what I saw he definitely was not always playing the percentages. I think he worked into his shot selection a certain, calculated percentage of "intimidaters" I'll call them. I would love to hear others comment on this because the only RA one pocket I have seen is the Golden 8 ball match with diliberto, so not much at all.

Another, and perhaps the prime, example.... and many here know I am a big big fan of the style and attitude he played with, Mark Tadd. I was lucky enough to see mark tadd play quite a bit. I swear to you, in the average match I would see him in with a very very good players, things would go back and forth... Mark would shoot a few fliers and miss them by 3 diamonds, then he would make one and run 3 racks off of it, and the other guy would get up there and crap all over the place and it was just a joke after that. And I know I used the number 40% above, but this guy would shoot at shots in important matches that were just so messed up, and he'd hit them a million miles an hour too. That reminds me, the added benefit also of the warp shots are you can get safe, luck in a ball, or any number of things.... the lucking in a ball factor does not come into play in one pocket very often of course. Sigel, imo, seemed to have the most sophisticated thinking when it came to when blast away shots were actual percentage shots.

Well, that is as wordy as I will be. Anybody think I have a point in there somewhere.... is the actual "wrong shot" the right shot sometimes? Do we think about things in terms of percentages too much? Is there not enough said about intimidating our opponents, and the fact that "normal" runouts and shots, even if executed again and again, are not really intimidating. Are there any percentages in "thoughtful recklessness?"

jrhendy · Jul 24, 2014

The tables I play on at Hard Times, Sacramento, are tight and unforgiving. I play players who can and do run out. Early in the game I try to never leave a shot that can lose the game for me and pass up shots I might take later in the game depending on the ball count.

The problem with this is if you pass up too many shots your opponent will get bolder and more offensive. You do have to get up and fire sometimes and when and where you do is a key element of winning at one pocket. The short explanation would be shot selection. If I am behind in ball count, I am very likely to fire at tough shot that might get me back in the game if I make it or lose the game if I miss.

Mkbtank · Jul 24, 2014

The Percentages in the "Wrong Shot"

I think you made a few valid points. There are definitely times to take those shots. Especially in a money match, where even if it goes wrong in that game, you have made a point and can come back from it. Keeping your opponent from getting comfortable and off balance is huge IMO. Once you are predictable, you lose something. Also- I sometimes like to take those shots because I want my opponent to underestimate my game. I have a better chance of keeping a guy long term if I give him air sometimes with a sellout or wrong selection. I used to be a 9 ball player, and took these all the time (and paid for it). Then I went the other way and played too conservatively. Now I am trying to find that balance. But I say yes. 40% shots do have a place at times.

androd · Jul 24, 2014

I rarely shoot these unless forced or believe there's and opportunity to get safe.
I'll take 3to2 and sleep in a bed. The ones laying 3to2 usually end up sleeping in the car.
Rod.
P.S. Most around me consider me a gofer, who shoots a lot of TV shots.

tylerdurden · Jul 24, 2014

Mkbtank said:
I think you made a few valid points. There are definitely times to take those shots. Especially in a money match, where even if it goes wrong in that game, you have made a point and can come back from it. Keeping your opponent from getting comfortable and off balance is huge IMO. Once you are predictable, you lose something. Also- I sometimes like to take those shots because I want my opponent to underestimate my game. I have a better chance of keeping a guy long term if I give him air sometimes with a sellout or wrong selection. I used to be a 9 ball player, and took these all the time (and paid for it). Then I went the other way and played too conservatively. Now I am trying to find that balance. But I say yes. 40% shots do have a place at times.

I played very conservative in my earlier years. The last 3 or 4 years I played I got much more offensive minded. The reason it is impossible for me to compare the two is I did pocket balls quite a bit better those last few years, but I really think that mentality has to be there. I feel strongly though that my more offensive style produced much better results. Then you see all the best players in the world choosing very offensive shots and it really makes you think.

I think the key point is that we all tend to think of missing as the end, or the ultimate thing to be avoided. Maybe we should sometimes think of the possibility of missing as an opportunity to disrupt our opponent. And then of course the side effect that quite possibly manifests itself is the ball then has a better chance to go in with this thought process.

Mkbtank · Jul 24, 2014

The Percentages in the "Wrong Shot"

The short time that I played with Tom Wirth at DCC, I was surprised and impressed with how offensive minded and creatively he played.

Jimmy B · Jul 24, 2014

I'm not sure TD , but that's a well thought out post to try to help people. There must be times for this thoughtful recklessness that you refer to. I heard Grady speak many times about those certain shots you can pull off to demoralize your opponent, and Ronnie A, Mark T, and Grady were certainly masters of that. If Artie B has abandoned us again, it looks as if you are going to have to step up and keep the MB stimulated, which you are certainly capable of doing. Good job...

bstroud · Jul 24, 2014

Every shot no matter how well you play is a calculated risk.

It is not just the percentage that you normally make the shot but how you feel in that moment and what the situation is before you.

The only hard and fast rule I follow is whether you are playing a race or by the game.

That is why I don't play sets. I like to shoot and often take chances. That strategy does not work in set and tournaments.

That is the reason I don't play very well in tournaments.

Bill S.

mr3cushion · Jul 24, 2014

bstroud said:
Every shot no matter how well you play is a calculated risk.

It is not just the percentage that you normally make the shot but how you feel in that moment and what the situation is before you.

The only hard and fast rule I follow is whether you are playing a race or by the game.

That is why I don't play sets. I like to shoot and often take chances. That strategy does not work in set and tournaments.

That is the reason I don't play very well in tournaments.

Bill S.

Bill; Just a thought, you might want to change your strategy under those circumstances. A "Wrong" % shot is wrong NO matter what the situation, if you're looking to win! Every time a player goes to the table there is ONLY one correct shot and it's usually the "Highest % shot" for that particular player and situation! Whether it be correct based on, player ability, score of the game, defensive leave, run-out possibilities, or even if you're stalling! Most players don't have the knowledge and correct concept and patience for the game to figure it out!

Now days, most "Young" players are looking to run-out every time they get to the table. If the possibility is there, they may very well do just that! But, if you keep leaving these types of players where they can ONLY make the first shot, and nothing else. They will usually self implode sooner or later!

unoperro · Jul 24, 2014

Great thread idea! Think about your ? from the guy in the chairs view.

Wrong shot 40% not really 40% if it wins games-sets-matches.I have played
many a lesser player who are hard to beat because they play so aggessive.
Hard to win when you are always cleaning out their side!

androd · Jul 24, 2014

unoperro said:
Great thread idea! Think about your ? from the guy in the chairs view.

Wrong shot 40% not really 40% if it wins games-sets-matches.I have played
many a lesser player who are hard to beat because they play so aggressive.
Hard to win when you are always cleaning out their side!

Just because shots are aggressive doesn't mean they're WRONG.

Rod.

bstroud · Jul 24, 2014

mr3cushion said:
Bill; Just a thought, you might want to change your strategy under those circumstances. A "Wrong" % shot is wrong NO matter what the situation, if you're looking to win! Every time a player goes to the table there is ONLY one correct shot and it's usually the "Highest % shot" for that particular player and situation! Whether it be correct based on, player ability, score of the game, defensive leave, run-out possibilities, or even if you're stalling! Most players don't have the knowledge and correct concept and patience for the game to figure it out!

Now days, most "Young" players are looking to run-out every time they get to the table. If the possibility is there, they may very well do just that! But, if you keep leaving these types of players where they can ONLY make the first shot, and nothing else. They will usually self implode sooner or later!

Bill,

I don't shoot many wrong shots. That why my won/loss record is so good.

I don't agree that there is only one correct shot for every situation. That's what makes one pocket so interesting. Imagination makes everything possible.

I am looking to run out in any given situation. Whether it is 8, 10, 12 or more the run out is always there. I now pocket balls better than ever. Why should I change a style that wins almost all the time.

If I had to live on the pitiful money available from tournaments I would be in the poor house. That's why I seldom play in one.

Bill S.

unoperro · Jul 24, 2014

androd said:
Just because shots are aggressive doesn't mean they're WRONG.
Rod.

Agreed. I should have said "overly aggressive".
Best player usually wins. Period!

mr3cushion · Jul 24, 2014

bstroud said:
Bill,

I don't shoot many wrong shots. That why my won/loss record is so good.

I don't agree that there is only one correct shot for every situation. That's what makes one pocket so interesting. Imagination makes everything possible.

I am looking to run out in any given situation. Whether it is 8, 10, 12 or more the run out is always there. I now pocket balls better than ever. Why should I change a style that wins almost all the time.

If I had to live on the pitiful money available from tournaments I would be in the poor house. That's why I seldom play in one.

Bill S.

Bill; did you NOT read my entire post?

Every time a player goes to the table there is ONLY one correct shot and it's usually the "Highest % shot" for that particular player and situation! Whether it be correctyly based on, player ability, score of the game, defensive leave, run-out possibilities, or even if you're stalling!

Whether you're gambling now days or playing tournaments NO ONE is going to set the world on fire! The money is just not there anymore, and the right games are harder to come by.

Like I said before, with your NEW found eyesight, I'm sure you can get played in a zillion spots across the country. But, personally myself, I wouldn't go around setting up matches by the game, the "knife and Fork" will eat you up if your opponents happen to turn out to be "snipers" with one or two bullets in the chamber!

Scrzbill · Jul 24, 2014

I'm a slow starter. Unless I have a gimme I don't shoot as much. One, two balls and duck. Playing more safeties at the beginning is an attempt to get my opponent to fly, leaving me more opportunities. The other thing about playing more safeties at the start, you get your opponent out of stoke. Gaining control of the match at the start lets me control the match, to play my game, not theirs. I know some players who will shoot at a white flag, for them. I leave a long straight low percentage shot that gets one ball. If they miss this, usually their game is off for a while.:frus:frus

bstroud · Jul 24, 2014

mr3cushion said:
Bill; did you NOT read my entire post?

Every time a player goes to the table there is ONLY one correct shot and it's usually the "Highest % shot" for that particular player and situation! Whether it be correctyly based on, player ability, score of the game, defensive leave, run-out possibilities, or even if you're stalling!

I guess we will agree to disagree on this one. I really don't think there is ONE best shot in a given situation. I have shot a low percentage shot and run out and won the game many times. If there is ONE best shot it is the one that wins the game not the one that in theory is the best.

you're gambling now days or playing tournaments NO ONE is going to set the world on fire! The money is just not there anymore, and the right games are harder to come by.

We agree on this.

I said before, with your NEW found eyesight, I'm sure you can get played in a zillion spots across the country. But, personally myself, I wouldn't go around setting up matches by the game, the "knife and Fork" will eat you up if your opponents happen to turn out to be "snipers" with one or two bullets in the chamber!

I guess I am going to the wrong zillion places. Every pool room I go into seems empty nowadays. Very little get up and play. I will keep trying.

Bill S.

Cory in dc · Jul 24, 2014

tylerdurden said:
Let's just say for the sake of argument and discussion you are faced with an offensive shot you will make 40% of the time, and you are going to have to hit it pretty dang hard to execute it. At the same time, you do have some defensive opportunities, but they are not really going to be game openers or anything. Is it an easy choice? The point of this thread is I think we should be thinking about firing at this stuff more often. Let's go through some possible scenarios.

What if you fire this off angled shot in and run out behind it? Stuff like this can extend beyond being a game winner.... shots like this can turn into set winners by way of making your opponent shrivel.

You miss by 2 diamonds and leave the guy 4 hangers. Ok, this isn't so great of course, but I really think there is some things to discuss with this option. How do you think a guy feels when you are playing him and you just kinda shoot the most obvious shot percentage wise every time you get to the table, and you bunt every time you can. Guys get comfortable. It doesn't matter how good you are playing, you may be making him play his best pool as well via your shot selection. Shoot a very strong shot like this and it can make a guy think, no doubt.

I have seen some of the best players that ever lived kinda fly off the cuff and play like this quite often. I know people go bonkers over Ronnie's shot selection, but from what I saw he definitely was not always playing the percentages. I think he worked into his shot selection a certain, calculated percentage of "intimidaters" I'll call them. I would love to hear others comment on this because the only RA one pocket I have seen is the Golden 8 ball match with diliberto, so not much at all.

Another, and perhaps the prime, example.... and many here know I am a big big fan of the style and attitude he played with, Mark Tadd. I was lucky enough to see mark tadd play quite a bit. I swear to you, in the average match I would see him in with a very very good players, things would go back and forth... Mark would shoot a few fliers and miss them by 3 diamonds, then he would make one and run 3 racks off of it, and the other guy would get up there and crap all over the place and it was just a joke after that. And I know I used the number 40% above, but this guy would shoot at shots in important matches that were just so messed up, and he'd hit them a million miles an hour too. That reminds me, the added benefit also of the warp shots are you can get safe, luck in a ball, or any number of things.... the lucking in a ball factor does not come into play in one pocket very often of course. Sigel, imo, seemed to have the most sophisticated thinking when it came to when blast away shots were actual percentage shots.

Well, that is as wordy as I will be. Anybody think I have a point in there somewhere.... is the actual "wrong shot" the right shot sometimes? Do we think about things in terms of percentages too much? Is there not enough said about intimidating our opponents, and the fact that "normal" runouts and shots, even if executed again and again, are not really intimidating. Are there any percentages in "thoughtful recklessness?"

Good question. I take some amount (i.e., more than old school Chicago players) of loose shots for two reasons.

1. Like you and Hendy said (and others), to make your opponent never feel safe--I want him to ask, if I leave him uptable, is this lunatic going to back-cut that ball 70 degrees?.

2. In a gambling session (as opposed to a tournament) with a finite time limit (say, the poolhall closes), the "right" decision actually does change.

==> If you have 6 hours, play tight and have a 60-40 edge, play for $100 a rack, and games last 30 minutes on average, then you can fit in 12 racks. You should expect to win 7.2 racks and lose 4.8 racks, for a $240 expected profit.

==> If you play looser to prevent uptable games, your edge slips to 57-43, but games take 20 minutes. You can fit in 18 games. You should expect to win 10.3 games and lose 7.7, for a $260 expected profit.

Ok, this example is a little contrived but it makes the basic point that the calculation is different when the *time* of the match is fixed instead of the *length (in games)* of a match. It also makes the point that you can't profitably accept too large of a reduction in win odds for the sake of a flyer.

Plus, I'm going to have more fun playing in the latter style. And the calculation above discounts entirely the psychological advantage of the occasional loose shot.

On the other hand, if you're not the favorite then the calculation reverses: it would be doubly bad to both increase your odds of losing and increase your net number of losses in the session. So choose wisely.

Cory

mr3cushion · Jul 24, 2014

bstroud said:
mr3cushion said:

Bill; did you NOT read my entire post?

Every time a player goes to the table there is ONLY one correct shot and it's usually the "Highest % shot" for that particular player and situation! Whether it be correctyly based on, player ability, score of the game, defensive leave, run-out possibilities, or even if you're stalling!

I guess we will agree to disagree on this one. I really don't think there is ONE best shot in a given situation. I have shot a low percentage shot and run out and won the game many times. If there is ONE best shot it is the one that wins the game not the one that in theory is the best.

you're gambling now days or playing tournaments NO ONE is going to set the world on fire! The money is just not there anymore, and the right games are harder to come by.

We agree on this.

I said before, with your NEW found eyesight, I'm sure you can get played in a zillion spots across the country. But, personally myself, I wouldn't go around setting up matches by the game, the "knife and Fork" will eat you up if your opponents happen to turn out to be "snipers" with one or two bullets in the chamber!

I guess I am going to the wrong zillion places. Every pool room I go into seems empty nowadays. Very little get up and play. I will keep trying.

Bill S.

Click to expand...

Bill; maybe you need to travel once in awhile, EAST of the, "Big Muddy!" I can make a few calls in Chi-Town if your interested. Just tryin to help!

bstroud · Jul 24, 2014

Bill,

Thanks.

I am going East soon. Perhaps it is better there. It always used to be.

Bill S.

onepocket926 · Jul 24, 2014

Cory in dc said:
Good question. I take some amount (i.e., more than old school Chicago players) of loose shots for two reasons.

1. Like you and Hendy said (and others), to make your opponent never feel safe--I want him to ask, if I leave him uptable, is this lunatic going to back-cut that ball 70 degrees?.

2. In a gambling session (as opposed to a tournament) with a finite time limit (say, the poolhall closes), the "right" decision actually does change.

==> If you have 6 hours, play tight and have a 60-40 edge, play for $100 a rack, and games last 30 minutes on average, then you can fit in 12 racks. You should expect to win 7.2 racks and lose 4.8 racks, for a $240 expected profit.

==> If you play looser to prevent uptable games, your edge slips to 57-43, but games take 20 minutes. You can fit in 18 games. You should expect to win 10.3 games and lose 7.7, for a $260 expected profit.

Ok, this example is a little contrived but it makes the basic point that the calculation is different when the *time* of the match is fixed instead of the *length (in games)* of a match. It also makes the point that you can't profitably accept too large of a reduction in win odds for the sake of a flyer.

Plus, I'm going to have more fun playing in the latter style. And the calculation above discounts entirely the psychological advantage of the occasional loose shot.

On the other hand, if you're not the favorite then the calculation reverses: it would be doubly bad to both increase your odds of losing and increase your net number of losses in the session. So choose wisely.

Cory

...I dusted off the 'ol abacus (wooden calculator)...and re-checked your calculations...they seem to be spot on....but, I do believe that there are a few things.....that You didn't figure into the equation...that may also dictate your speed of play and shot selections.....

.....some are:

.....table time (the House always wins)
.....gas (to and from the pool hall)
.....meals and drinks (sodas alone are a couple of bucks)
.....the bribe to the "house man" (to tell your wife that You're not there and haven't been there all night).....:lol.....
.....don't forget the cost to replace your car radio....when the sweaters pass the word...that You're locked up for 6 hours...and wont be down checking on your car......:frus

.....that brings your win down from $260 to about $172....divided by the 6 hours....that about $28.50 an hour that's a lil' less than my SSI...but, I guess a person could live on it....

The Percentages in the "Wrong Shot"

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