Tough Shot Choice

Artie Bodendorfer · Aug 11, 2009

wincardona said:
I also like the 5 ball 2 railer, but you made an excellent point, which I agree with when you said that if you can outmove your opponent in the end game, than your choice would be the 12 ball.

I shot both shots and I will shoot the 5 ball no mater what. I must shoot at the dead out. And If we play both shots both ways I will win more games by banking the 5 ball first. THe 5 ball bank is a way stronger shot. Because if you get locked up behind the 12 ball you are in a world of trouble and you become the underdog in the game needing one ball.

Cowboy Dennis · Aug 11, 2009

One Pocket Ghost said:
Ok, since people have been reviving old threads, and other people want to see more wei table shot choices, here's a game situation that I posted about 2 year ago.....The guys that were here back then probably will remember the thread, but it's a good shot choice discussion for you newer guys....Here you go >>>

Here's a situation that came up for me the other day in a game - I've had this same situation come up other times too, and it's a simple, but interesting example of a tough one pocket shot decision.....It's my shot, the top pocket is mine, I need both balls and my customer...ah, I mean opponent needs one.......My decision is whether to pocket the sure-thing 12 ball and then play a safety (there's too much angle to hold the cue ball for a bank on the 5 ball with my next shot - the 5 ball is frozen on the rail), settling for playing it out from there with the score tied 7 to 7......Or, pass on making the 12 and being on the hill, and instead gambling to get out right there by shooting the 5 ball two-rail bank, which is laying just about straight on, hoping to make it and then shoot the 12 ball in for the win - If I choose this option, I would shoot the 5 at pocket speed and draw back a little and try to snooker my opponent behind the 12 ball in the event that I miss the 5..... Assume the pockets are average size - 4-1/2", and you are playing someone that you play about even with - what's your choice >>>

[CUETABLE]http://CueTable.com/P/?@2ESrj2LYcm2Pacf@[/CUETABLE]

- Ghost

PS, Last time I put this thread up, the replies were about 50/50 between the two shot choices.

I would probably shoot the 5 ball also, but if the angle was there for this shot, I would shoot it.

[CUETABLE]http://CueTable.com/P/?@2ESrj2LYcm2Pacf@2ESrj2LYcm2Pacf2gYcm3gbju2kacf2kYEC2kEVT@2ESrj3Lbju2PEVT@2ESrj3Lbju2PEVT2YSrj3YcQt2kEVT2kSbR2katK1kban2kbJj1kSyU@3EcQt3Lbju1PSyU@[/CUETABLE]

newfosgatesucks · Feb 15, 2010

As it is pictured, the 2-railer first. If the 12 lay better OR if I was unfamilar with table speed here, the 12 first.

blackeee · Feb 16, 2010

One Pocket Ghost said:
Ok, since people have been reviving old threads, and other people want to see more wei table shot choices, here's a game situation that I posted about 2 year ago.....The guys that were here back then probably will remember the thread, but it's a good shot choice discussion for you newer guys....Here you go >>>

Here's a situation that came up for me the other day in a game - I've had this same situation come up other times too, and it's a simple, but interesting example of a tough one pocket shot decision.....It's my shot, the top pocket is mine, I need both balls and my customer...ah, I mean opponent needs one.......My decision is whether to pocket the sure-thing 12 ball and then play a safety (there's too much angle to hold the cue ball for a bank on the 5 ball with my next shot - the 5 ball is frozen on the rail), settling for playing it out from there with the score tied 7 to 7......Or, pass on making the 12 and being on the hill, and instead gambling to get out right there by shooting the 5 ball two-rail bank, which is laying just about straight on, hoping to make it and then shoot the 12 ball in for the win - If I choose this option, I would shoot the 5 at pocket speed and draw back a little and try to snooker my opponent behind the 12 ball in the event that I miss the 5..... Assume the pockets are average size - 4-1/2", and you are playing someone that you play about even with - what's your choice >>>

[CUETABLE]http://CueTable.com/P/?@2ESrj2LYcm2Pacf@[/CUETABLE]

- Ghost

PS, Last time I put this thread up, the replies were about 50/50 between the two shot choices.

I remember this shot. I'd shoot the 5.

Cowboy Dennis · Feb 16, 2010

blackeee said:
I remember this shot. I'd shoot the 5.

Well Keith, at least you are consistent

. I also stand by my original reply.

jay helfert · Feb 17, 2010

One Pocket Ghost said:
Ok, since people have been reviving old threads, and other people want to see more wei table shot choices, here's a game situation that I posted about 2 year ago.....The guys that were here back then probably will remember the thread, but it's a good shot choice discussion for you newer guys....Here you go >>>

Here's a situation that came up for me the other day in a game - I've had this same situation come up other times too, and it's a simple, but interesting example of a tough one pocket shot decision.....It's my shot, the top pocket is mine, I need both balls and my customer...ah, I mean opponent needs one.......My decision is whether to pocket the sure-thing 12 ball and then play a safety (there's too much angle to hold the cue ball for a bank on the 5 ball with my next shot - the 5 ball is frozen on the rail), settling for playing it out from there with the score tied 7 to 7......Or, pass on making the 12 and being on the hill, and instead gambling to get out right there by shooting the 5 ball two-rail bank, which is laying just about straight on, hoping to make it and then shoot the 12 ball in for the win - If I choose this option, I would shoot the 5 at pocket speed and draw back a little and try to snooker my opponent behind the 12 ball in the event that I miss the 5..... Assume the pockets are average size - 4-1/2", and you are playing someone that you play about even with - what's your choice >>>

[CUETABLE]http://CueTable.com/P/?@2ESrj2LYcm2Pacf@[/CUETABLE]

- Ghost

PS, Last time I put this thread up, the replies were about 50/50 between the two shot choices.

If you don't shoot the twelve first to get to the hill, you are either on drugs or mentally deficient. You then have many choices of safeties on the five, including putting a lot of distance between the two balls, with the cue ball on the end rail. IMO there is no debate here. Either you are sober or drunk.

wincardona · Feb 17, 2010

wow!!!

wow!!!

jay helfert said:
If you don't shoot the twelve first to get to the hill, you are either on drugs or mentally deficient. You then have many choices of safeties on the five, including putting a lot of distance between the two balls, with the cue ball on the end rail. IMO there is no debate here. Either you are sober or drunk.

Strong statement (from a bank pool player)

jtompilot · Feb 17, 2010

With the 5 at 1/2 diamond its less than 1/2 ball hit for the two rail. You cant hold the cue ball behind the 12 two railing the 5. Jay's right, you must be on drugs not to shoot the 12. Dennis's last post is the best shot.

lll · Feb 17, 2010

jay helfert said:
If you don't shoot the twelve first to get to the hill, you are either on drugs or mentally deficient. You then have many choices of safeties on the five, including putting a lot of distance between the two balls, with the cue ball on the end rail. IMO there is no debate here. Either you are sober or drunk.

could you tell us how you strongly feel and no holds barred tell us

One Pocket Ghost · Dec 4, 2011

One Pocket Ghost said:
Ok, since people have been reviving old threads, and other people want to see more wei table shot choices, here's a game situation that I posted about 2 year ago.....The guys that were here back then probably will remember the thread, but it's a good shot choice discussion for you newer guys...

This is a situation that came up for me the other day in a game - I've had this same situation come up other times too, and it's a simple, but interesting example of a tough one pocket shot decision.....It's my shot, the top pocket is mine, I need both balls and my customer...uuh, I mean my opponent needs one.......My decision is whether to pocket the sure-thing 12 ball and then play a safety (there's too much angle to hold the cue ball for a bank on the 5 ball with my next shot, even if it doesn't look that way in the on-screen table here - the 5 ball is frozen on the rail), settling for playing it out from there with the score tied 7 to 7......Or, pass on making the 12 and being on the hill, and instead gambling to get out right there by shooting the 5 ball two-rail bank, which is laying just about dead ahead (imo, any good to excellent player would be a huge favorite to not miss it by more than an inch or two, if he didn't make it), hoping to make it and then shoot the 12 ball in for the win - If I choose this option, I would shoot the 5 at pocket speed and draw back a little and try to snooker my opponent behind the 12 ball in the event that I miss the 5..... Assume the pockets are average size - 4-1/2", and you are playing someone that you play about even with - what's your choice >>>

- Ghost

PS, Last time I put this thread up, 2 years ago, the replies were about 50/50 between the two shot choices.

PPS, Forgot to say...I hit multi-rail banks well, and I love these 2-railers - and I like the very likely snooker result if I miss the 2-railer shooting at pocket speed...all that said, my choice here was/is definitely to 2-rail the 5.

Well, threads are a little slow tonight, so I'll re-post another one of my shot choice threads from the archives....funny thing is, this is the second revival/third time I'm posting it

first in 2007, next in 2009 - and now in 2011....but it's an interesting choice, and at each of these 2 year intervals there have been many new members that didn't see the thread the last time around....many of us older members have already given our choice here, but the rest of you guys can chime in...most of us liked the 2-railer on the 5, but Jay H. and pilot Tom were strongly in favor of shooting the 12 ball instead...

- Ghost

PS, And also for you newbies - you'll see a guy named Artie with posts in this thread - he's a guy that used to post a lot here...

PPS, More to consider: A couple of guys said they'd shoot the 5 - unless they could out-move their opponent - in that case they'd make the 12 instead, and play for one ball....but I believe a stronger consideration/factor then the moving comparison, since there's not all that much moving with just one ball on the table (the main move is: don't leave your opponent a bank shot - unless it's an extremely low% bank shot

), is the banking comparison between me and my opponent...like for example if our John Brumbach was my opponent, I'd prefer to avoid getting into a banking contest with John for that last ball...:heh

tonygreen · Dec 4, 2011

I guess my choice depends on who is shooting it for me. If I can get someone who can make the two -railer more than 70% of the time then by all means shoot the 5. If you are like the majority of players then just shoot the 12.

androd · Dec 4, 2011

androd said:
One thing nobody mentioned, if you don't make the bank, your opponent may be forced to shoot at the 12 ball, or if the 5 ball gets on the head rail, he may want to shoot it. I'm a little conservative here I'm trying to get in the one hole and see what kind of shot I have next.
Rod.

It's been two years and I haven't changed my mind. A very good player once told me, when you have the choice of a tougher shot to get'em both or a easy shot to get in the one hole, always take the easier shot. I believed him then and believe it now.

Rod.
P.S. You still have 1st option to bank the last ball or play safe.

Dudley · Dec 4, 2011

I'm shooting the 12... Hard to pass up a gimme.

If I butcher the 2 rail on the five after passing up a chance to make the score even I would not be a happy camper.

Dud

even more so If the rest of the game went like this:

http://pool.bz/P/?@2ESrj2LYcm2Pacf2...kf2LYcm2Pacf2gYcm4gdGr2kacf2kbIA4kbQp8kMGazc@

I tried to use the cuetable brackets so we could see it in the thread but it wouldn't work????

androd · Dec 5, 2011

Dudley said:
I'm shooting the 12... Hard to pass up a gimme.

If I butcher the 2 rail on the five after passing up a chance to make the score even I would not be a happy camper.

Dud

even more so If the rest of the game went like this:

[CUETABLE]url]http://pool.bz/P/?@2ESrj2LYcm2Pacf2YSrj1YbNk3Yasf2kacf2kUOV2kact@3Eakf2LYcm2Pacf2gYcm4gdGr2kacf2kbIA4kbQp8kMGazc@[/url][/CUETABLE]

I tried to use the cuetable brackets so we could see it in the thread but it wouldn't work????

Yeah, I said the same in my older post.

Rod.
P.S. Here's your layout.
P.P.S. The layout was working when I posted it. I guess Pool Biz is at it again. :frus

Scrzbill · Dec 5, 2011

7-7

7-7

Two balls left and I need them both. I'm shooting the gimmee and playing for the last ball. I figure that I can outplay the customer for the last ball and he is deflated from needing one ball to us both needing one ball AND I get the first shot at it. Getting the first shot at making a long end game or making the ball. If its earlier in the game with multiple balls I doing the two railer.

One Pocket Ghost · Dec 5, 2011

Out of curiosity, I checked back to the first version of this shot choice thread from 2007 to see other members choices...

Gulfport Doc chose the straight in 12 ball...

Myself, Freddy, Steve Booth, senor and 'hemicudas Bill, RIP' chose the 2-railer, and Billy and John H. provisionally chose the 2-railer.

- Ghost

vapros · Dec 5, 2011

I'm going to stick my neck out here. (on the internet, why not?) Shoot the straight-in, holding the cueball as near as you can on that line, then pinch the hell out of the 5 ball, sending it towards your pocket also. If you have a bit of angle, and use max inside english, the frozen ball can be shot with about a 1/4 ball hit. You can't make it, but you can leave it on the short rail near your pocket, with the cueball at the other end of the table. Next best thing to running out.

Seems like a workable plan, unless you are pretty confident of the two-railer. Anybody who shoots the 12 first has to deal with the 5. Why doesn't anyone want to pinch it?

vapros · Dec 5, 2011

Bumpo - can I get some comments on pinching the 5 ball? Thanks -

Skin · Dec 5, 2011

Dudley said:
I'm shooting the 12... Hard to pass up a gimme.

If I butcher the 2 rail on the five after passing up a chance to make the score even I would not be a happy camper.

Dud

even more so If the rest of the game went like this:

http://pool.bz/P/?@2ESrj2LYcm2Pacf2...kf2LYcm2Pacf2gYcm4gdGr2kacf2kbIA4kbQp8kMGazc@

I tried to use the cuetable brackets so we could see it in the thread but it wouldn't work????

Yeah, I pointed that out in my older post (like Rod) and that's why I'm not shooting the 5 for shape on the 12. Instead, provided the pockets are not too tight, I am shooting the 12 and drawing the cb hard into the 5. I might manufacture a cut or one-railer on it that way. If not, I still have first move/safety on it.

Skin < changed his mind on how to shoot it

One Pocket Ghost · Dec 5, 2011

SJDinPHX said:
lll,

You chose the exact right shot the first time. Even the YMCA guy's would 2-rail the 12 ball.

senor said:
Ghost. If I needed one and my opponent needed two, and I left my opponent this shot, I sure as hell would hope he would shoot to cinch the one! Even if the 2 railer did not fall, I would have to be an underdog from that position 80-90% of the time.

fred bentivegna said:
A great example of mine and Artie B's philosophy. Shoot the 2 railer, and no matter what happens with that choice you remain the "move up." Make it you can win, miss it your opponent is forced to play defense and remain the "move down."
the Beard

jrhendy said:
If I was sure I could bank the two railer & hide the ball if I missed, I would take the bank. The other ways I would shoot the bank was if I had been running some balls to get back in the game and had some confidence & momentum going. This plays a big part in my shot selection. I also might shoot the bank if I am in a long safety battle and think I might miss the fairly easy shot to the hole. If I'm stuck enough I go for everything LOL.

NH Steve said:
I tried this set up against myself and made the two-railer and got out the first try but then didn't make it about 5 or 6 times, but all but about one time the five was in some kind of akward spot. I decided I liked that shot better than doing battle 7 - 7 -- and MUCH better than the embarassment of missing the one on a failed cinch!

wincardona said:
I can also break this down in terms of probability and explain why one shot opposed to another is correct mathematically. In this instance shooting the two railer for a top player is the correct shot because on 4 1/2 inch pockets he should pocket the two railer at least once out of four attempts. The three times the ball is missed ,he will win that game at least 40% of the time,resulting in a 120 to 180 deficit in terms of games won.So the 1 out of 4 the two railer is pocketed is plus 1 game,plus the 1.2 games he picks up on the 3 remaining games that the two railer is not pocketed gives him a win % of 2.2 opposed to his opponents 1.8, which makes him an 11/9 favorite which is better than 6/5. Speaking conservatively,for a top player.

..........

Tough Shot Choice

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