Odds Question

tylerdurden

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John, I believe Keith is looking for the odds for these two different set's of players playing one another to win a game, not a set.

The question Keith has is a very difficult question to give a "blanket" answer to because of the many different conditions that a contest of this kind could be played under, which in turn would change the odds of the outcome. Not only are we talking about conditions but the players skill set as well.

Take a player like myself who has a respected skill set, and then slate me against a player like Pagulayan playing even. Lets assume that Pagulayan can give me 10/5 and it's an even game. Then take a player that plays 10/5 under me, and I play that player even. Imo the chances of me winning a game against Pagulayan are better than the player i'm playing to win a game against me even, why would I say that? My skill set will give me a better chance to limit Pagulayan from what he does so well more than the player that i'm playing will have in limiting me because his skill set is not high enough to control a game. It's mostly about the weaker player than it is about the stronger player when it comes to a one game contest playing a game like one pocket where if a person has a high enough skill set he can beat anyone one game.

I mentioned conditions, and how different conditions can affect the out come of games. Yes the tougher the conditions the less likely the weaker player will have in doing the unexpected. Weaker players playing good players in an even contest needs conditions that allow them to play the game comfortably to increase their chances of winning. So, conditions are also a factor when trying to come up with an accurate assessment of the odds needed to make the contest even.

Then finally we need to look at the amount of skill that the contest has to determine if it's even possible for the weaker player to win. Lets take a "foot race" as an example. Lets assume that I can give you 10 yards in a 100 yard foot race and it's a close race. It would be very hard for you to beat me without the 10 yards, but possible. Now lets assume that I can give you 20 yards in a 100 yard race, well without the 20 yards there is no way you will beat me unless I fall down or stop running. So, skill level is vitally important to determine the odds for players competing against one another in an even contest,however, in a contest where the stronger player will have the benefit of exercising his skill set to the fullest then the weaker player has less of a chance to win..like a foot race.

Playing one pocket to determine who is the better player and by how much is not like evaluating a foot race, there are many variables that need to be considered, along with all the uncertainties that will transpire that clouds one's ability to accurately assess the odds for certain players playing weaker players even, in a game of one pocket.:confused: Yes we can kinda come up with a reasonable answer to a player that is 10/5 under another player, playing even, by the game and it would be reasonably close but when you try to come up with an answer for players in the C and D set where the better player is 15 to 5 over the weaker player playing even, it's starting to sound more like a "foot race" kinda.

My guess that in the A and B set 10/5 would equate to around 4, 5, or possibly 6 to one, depending on the weaker players skill set. Now for the C and D set, (15-5) well it's way up there, maybe like in a foot race.:heh

Dr. Bill

I would defer to you on this of course, but I thought this would be a bit simpler because everything is built into those spots knowing that this is how they actually play even (assumed).

So, the 10 to 5, the better player makes twice as many balls when considering everything: moving, shooting, thinking, temperment..... The numbers have shows in the long haul he'll make 2 balls for every one of the other guy. For the weaker player to get to 8 for each point he is fighting two to one odds. Maybe it all comes down to a players per inning average. If you need 3 shots to get out that would be youd have much better odds if you need 6 shots to get out, on average. But that would be way up there so i don't know. For a weaker player that would mean two to one odds every inning he scores, so I see what you mean about the weaker player it being stronger (I think), because for a better player to get a big spot he doesn't need as many chances to fight the uphill battle. (I backtracked and edited my post, correcting myself).

Interesting question and it is a lot more complicated than I first thought. I think the answer has largely to do with the number of shots a player needs to get out, on average. Two good players I agree it could come in near 3 or 4 to 1 easy.
 
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LSJohn

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I want Bill in either of those. I think 7:2, 9:2 is more like it. Bill is gonna win a lot of games even. You want to take Alex in a race to 4 and give Bill 3 on the wire? I'm your man. :

By a lot, what do you mean. 3/10? Surely not 4/10?

If I had to handicap it, I'd say you're very close at the 3 1/2 to 1 figure. I wouldn't want to take Alex at 4/1 and I wouldn't want Bill at 3/1.

So, 3 1/2 pick-em is my #. You gotta bet both on both breaks!

My "lot" was 2 to 3 out of 10, in other words 2 1/2. So your 3 1/2:1 makes Bill --according to my 2 1/2 -- a small favorite, which fits with my willingness to gamble at 4,and loving 5. Doesn't make me -- us! -- right, but that's what makes...... you know. :)
 
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