What to do?

tonygreen · Nov 25, 2011

SJDinPHX said:
Sorry Tony, but I think you will find, that if you were to go for the 10 (which you should) you would be ill advised to shoot it hard...If you missed it, many bad things could happen...double kiss, double the pocket, and spit out toward the other guys hole, etc...In that case, you would be giving your oppo, a good chance, to get two balls, instead of one, play shape on a 3 railer, and be right back in the game...If your not comfortable shooting at 'pocket speeds' (especially banks)..I would suggest strongly, working on that part of your game.

Note;..Edit for Dr. Bill, Billy, you are sounding like a true 9 baller now...Is "pocket speed" one of your "glaring" weaknesses ?.. JK JK.....If I were to shoot that shot (even off the rail) I would make, or jaw it, 80 %, or more, and would almost never leave a return bank, after my oppo makes the 4..(min. 5 yrs ago)...
....Oh, I get it, you just wanted to gig the Beard...OK, carry on)..

Thanks for your opinion and coaching me on pocket speed and your assumption that i need coaching (uncalled for) ... I will not take a chance on leaving a bank for my opponent.
If you want to shoot this with pocket speed and leave your cue in the middle of the table , well, you are entitled to your opinion. Many will not want to take that chance and put an additional ball in play.
///Again here we go ... a thread starts "what would you do" and it is taken as an opportunity by many as to get on their soapbox.
Just give your opinion and leave it at that.

Some want to shoot at their hole and some do not ... please deliver your soliloquy without the chastisement of others.

One Pocket Ghost · Nov 25, 2011

I thought this would be an interesting situation to discuss, and it turns out that we ended up close to 50/50 in the posters choices here...

And let me say for those that were taking this into consideration..that the cloth was dry, and pretty new, increasing the odds of making the 3...

As for me, when I was in the tournament with this choice....well, I might be a mover, as Freddy is, but also like Freddy says, 'when my name is called', I'm more than happy to pull the trigger at my hole - and not just when it's: 'gotta go' time - but also when it's just: 'a good time to go', as I would say it was here...

That said, I thought about the choice for a minute, and then decided to shoot the 3.....Billy said confidence in making the shot would likely be the prime factor in a player's choosing to shoot he 3 - that's likely true for most, but not primarily that for me - not being a super-straight shooter, for me, it was my confidence in my speed control that was the prime factor in my deciding to shoot it - judging pocket speed being a very strong part of my game...

I'm thinking %-wise, that I'm probably somewhere around 33% to make the shot...but I'm about 90% for my pocket speed to be accurate enough to leave the 10 close enough to the pocket to not leave him any shot at it...

Well, the result, stayed with the likely odds for me: I didn't make the shot, but I did leave it close enough to the pocket to not leave him any bank shot - although not deep enough in the pocket jaws to where he couldn't take it out....so he made only the 4, and then he next had to take out the 10 from my pocket.

- Ghost

SUPERSTAR · Nov 25, 2011

One Pocket Ghost said:
PS, With this pocket size and shooting off the rail, I'd be interested in hearing what other members would estimate their % of pocketing the 10ball would be - for real/realistic estimates only please - unless you want to lie and give a lower % estimate, to help you get action - that is acceptable...

Totally up in the air. Might roll it into the hole, might miss it by a mile.

Suffered too many losses from people with their back against the wall, that connected on absolutely everything after i made a ball for them.

For better or for worse, I just choose to go down swinging.

androd · Nov 25, 2011

One Pocket Ghost said:
I'm thinking %-wise, that I'm probably somewhere around 33% to make the shot...but I'm about 90% for my pocket speed to be accurate enough to leave the 10 close enough to the pocket to not leave him any shot at it...

PS, With this pocket size and shooting off the rail, I'd be interested in hearing what other members would estimate their % of pocketing the 10ball would be - for real/realistic estimates only please - unless you want to lie and give a lower % estimate, to help you get action - that is acceptable...

I would guess my %'s are about the same as yours, especially on the 1st try. (Out of ten tries I might do better,)
Pocket speed is one of my stronger points.

Rod.

Frank Almanza · Nov 25, 2011

Ghost, I think my percentages are about the same as you posted, I think you did the correct thing in shooting at your hole. Shooting at the ten with the proper speed is the key in your decision. You're conceding the four ball either way. You might as well give yourself a chance to win right now. Many times in situations like this you wind up even if you position the ten deep in your hole. He makes his four and then makes yours and scratches. You wind up shooting with two balls on the spot.

I would not shoot hard to get the ten out of there if I missed, because of all the things SJD said that could happen.

Cowboy Dennis · Nov 25, 2011

lll said:
why would you take the tougher shot if more money was riding on it??

Because I'm not letting cheap players nit me out of money that easy

.

P.S. I'd roll the 4 in for cheap, I thought I might catch a Duck with my 10 ball shot:sorry.

RBL

wincardona · Nov 25, 2011

One Pocket Ghost said:
I thought this would be an interesting situation to discuss, and it turns out that we're close to 50/50 in the posters choices here...

And let me say for those that were taking this into consideration - there was/is no scratch in the side angle in shooting the 10, and the 4ball could not be taken out...I should have added that info to my first post...also let me say that the cloth was dry, and pretty new, increasing the odds of making the 10...

As for me, when I was in the tournament with this choice....Well, I might be a mover, as Freddy is, but also like Freddy, 'when my name is called', I'm more than happy to pull the trigger at my hole...not just when it's: 'gotta go' time - but also when it's just a: 'good time to go' as I would say it is here...

That said, I thought about it for a minute, and then shot the 10...Billy said confidence in making the shot would likely be the prime factor in choosing to shoot it - that's likely true for many, but for me, not a super-straight shooter, it was my confidence in my speed control that was the prime factor in my deciding to shoot it - judging pocket speed being a good part of my game...

I'm thinking %-wise, that I'm probably somewhere around 33% to make the shot...but I'm about 90% for my pocket speed to be accurate enough to leave the 10 close enough to the pocket to not leave him any shot at it...

Well, the result for me, stayed with the likely odds: I didn't make the shot, but I did leave it close enough to the pocket to not leave him any shot at it - although not in the pocket enough to where he couldn't take it out...he made only the 4, and then had to take out the 10 from my pocket on his next shot.

- Ghost

PS, With this pocket size and shooting off the rail, I'd be interested in hearing what other members would estimate their % of pocketing the 10ball would be - for real/realistic estimates only please - unless you want to lie and give a lower % estimate, to help you get action - that is acceptable...

I stand corrected that I didn't address the speed of the shot as one of the deciding factors in choosing to shoot as opposed to playing the 4 ball. Certainly when choosing the 10 ball option the shot must be hit with very good speed, any thing else will jeopardize your lead. It was the speed of the shot in conjunction with the tight pocket that swayed me toward playing the 4 ball. There were too many mitigating factors that would encourage me to shoot the 10 ball in this spot.
#1. position of cue ball.
#2. angle of shot (in relation to pocket)
#3.pocket size
#3. speed needed
#4. accuracy needed.
#5. ball value on tighter pockets.

Once again, depending on the confidence the shooter has with the shot should determine the option chosen. But I agree with The Ghost that the speed the shot is hit with is the most important part of the shot. But I still stand by my choice on playing the 4 ball, even though it's not clearly the right way to go,but for some it should be. This is based on the two players playing being comparable, in skill. Like I mentioned earlier, on loose pockets I shoot the 10 ball, hands down.

Billy I.

Scrzbill · Nov 25, 2011

///Again here we go ...
Just give your opinion and leave it at that.
Some want to shoot at their hole and some do not ... please deliver your soliloquy without the chastisement of others.[/QUOTE]

Pretty funny you getting on the duck telling him not to do what you are doing.

When I reads the post, he sounds like he's giving good advice. Practice weak areas of the game. Gives an opinion of why shooting it hard is less than advantageous.

Take it easy on the duck, he's the funniest guy on any pool thread you will find.
I guess now I can expect a soliloquy on me minding my own business.
NOW "MY OPINION" :frus on your choice of shooting it hard. You would have to be one of the greatest players ever, to hit it hard, not double kiss, miscue, misdirect, etc frozen, off the rail to do what you suggest. You may be that player, but if you're that good, fire the ten in. I'm the weakest player on this forum and even I can hit this pocket speed making it on my high average of about .08%. :heh:heh

Dudley · Nov 25, 2011

fred bentivegna said:
If I was wheelchair bound, I would still shoot the 10 and try and pick up my check. Ask yourself, what would you want your opponent to shoot if the situation was reversed? Do you want him shooting at the session ball, where even if he misses you still dont figure to win the next inning?

Beard

SJDinPHX said:
Ditto, I would just stay in the elecriic chair, and fry...if I couldn't go for that ball, at pocket speed.....But I suppose Ghoatsy has some earth-shaking, clever move in that spot ?..If so, he needs--> :help

I hear you guys on this shot. Why not go for the win? The only hesitation I have is being frozen on the rail... But realistically I could see myself shooting either shot for the cash.

If you see yourself jawing that ball over 50% it probably is the better shot.

Dud

wincardona · Nov 25, 2011

wincardona said:
I stand corrected that I didn't address the speed of the shot as one of the deciding factors in choosing to shoot as opposed to playing the 4 ball. Certainly when choosing the 10 ball option the shot must be hit with very good speed, any thing else will jeopardize your lead. It was the speed of the shot in conjunction with the tight pocket that swayed me toward playing the 4 ball. There were too many mitigating factors that would encourage me to shoot the 10 ball in this spot.
#1. position of cue ball.
#2. angle of shot (in relation to pocket)
#3.pocket size
#3. speed needed
#4. accuracy needed.
#5. ball value on tighter pockets.

Once again, depending on the confidence the shooter has with the shot should determine the option chosen. But I agree with The Ghost that the speed the shot is hit with is the most important part of the shot. But I still stand by my choice on playing the 4 ball, even though it's not clearly the right way to go,but for some it should be. This is based on the two players playing being comparable, in skill. Like I mentioned earlier, on loose pockets I shoot the 10 ball, hands down.

Billy I.

To be honest about my choice is, i'm usually playing better offensive players than myself and squeezing them has become some what of a habit I have developed, perhaps that was factored into my thinking process when choosing the option.

Billy I.

tonygreen · Nov 25, 2011

The tightness of the pocket is a issue ... differing with others opinions is not the issue.
Why choose pocket speed here ... ?
With a tight pocket like this one then "jarring" the ball is a huge error , resulting in leaving a bank (which should be the last thing anyone would want to do).

Leaving the 10 ball in front of your pocket (you know that 8 inch circumference just in front you hole) the one that you shot with excellent pocket speed is unacceptable here, when you need one.

NH Steve · Nov 25, 2011

I did wonder about the scratch in the side on a slow rolling shot, since you sure dont have much for english options shooting off the rail like that. Thanks for clarifying. I also feel like I roll pretty decently but I can certainly see the possibility of missing just enough for the opponent to make the four, then bank the ten and swing to the far corner and run out. damn!

bstroud · Nov 25, 2011

I really don't understand the rush to win in this situation.

You have already won the game all you need to do is wait.

If you shoot the 10 and make it all you have done is save time.

If you miss it and leave any kind of bank you may be looking at an even game.

Use your head. Play the percentages. Shoot in the 4 ball and wait.

Bill S.

Dudley · Nov 25, 2011

tonygreen said:
The tightness of the pocket is a issue ... differing with others opinions is not the issue.
Why choose pocket speed here ... ?
With a tight pocket like this one then "jarring" the ball is a huge error , resulting in leaving a bank (which should be the last thing anyone would want to do).

Leaving the 10 ball in front of your pocket (you know that 8 inch circumference just in front you hole) the one that you shot with excellent pocket speed is unacceptable here, when you need one.

Pocket speed equals in the jaws. I believe that is what others are saying too.

Pocket speed is way better than hitting it firm. If it stays in the jaws It cannot be banked. Forcing your opponent to take the ball out on their second shot.

If you hit it firm you will almost always sell out a bank. --->Unless you make it

Dud

lll · Nov 25, 2011

bstroud said:
I really don't understand the rush to win in this situation.

You have already won the game all you need to do is wait.

If you shoot the 10 and make it all you have done is save time.

If you miss it and leave any kind of bank you may be looking at an even game.

Use your head. Play the percentages. Shoot in the 4 ball and wait.

Bill S.

PLAY THE SCORE
imho
shoot the 4
icbw

tonygreen · Nov 25, 2011

lll said:
PLAY THE SCORE
imho
shoot the 4
icbw

In this game you or your opponent NEVER have the game won until the last one falls.
"Pocket Speed" is a relative term ... do we define it as ; the speed required for a ball to fall into a pocket ?
Do we define it as enough speed to reach the pocket and 3 percent more speed enough to hit the rail next to the pocket in case the table rolls off?
Do we define it as enough to get the ball to our hole but what would also be NOT enough speed to NOT hit a rail?
all rhetorical questions. (I am not looking for an answer to these questions)

Take a chance at winning the game or give him the 4 ball and now he needs only three more. Take a chance and pull the trigger and lag it down there with your "pocket speed" which you can precisely judge within 3 inches from being frozen on the top rail. If you miss, you wont let him have a bank ...right? (now he needs only two more ).

lll · Nov 25, 2011

lets say you hit it with pocket speed and dont make it.
he shoots his 4 ball in and takes out your ball
ok he now needs 3 and you need 1
no different than if you make the 4 for him

if you dont hit it perfect and leave a bank now he needs only 2
obviously if you make it its a moot point

so unless you make it what have you gained
and what have you risked
if you miss it you risk giving him 2 balls instead of just one

SO to me unless you felt really good about making it
give him the 4 and play for the rest

tonygreen · Nov 25, 2011

Larry , you and i have to respectfully disagree on this one. We have agreed in the past, but with this one we are at odds. As I said earlier shoot at your hole and aim to overcut it slightly and if you miss it, hit it hard enough for the object ball to go uptable into the kitchen.

If you think you can hit it with precision enough to get it within the confines of the the two shims (inside the jaws, so he must give it to you) so that he has to scratch behind it, otherwise you are giving him two balls. I do not like trying to hit it with whatever we agree on as "pocketspeed" here.

wincardona · Nov 25, 2011

misleading %

misleading %

Just got home and have been thinking about this situation, even though I feel that this debate is fairly close I must bring up a valid point worthy of discussing.
Most of the posters say that their pocketing % is about 33%, I disagree. Playing on a 4-1/4" pocket from the position your left in pocketing the 10 ball is probably closer to 20%. Let me explain. This shot must be hit with just about perfect speed which you will invariably lose accuracy not only because of the soft speed but you will favor the full hit making sure to contact a rail. If you don't hit the 10 ball fully you run the risk of hitting the bottom rail first with the 10 ball which will demand perfect speed or you'll sell out the return bank. When this ball is hit it will be hit thickly at least 80% of the time to ensure the speed and to protect against the scratch. Particularly on a small pocket (more rail to defend) I believe that you'll lose the 10 ball more times than you'll pocket it by shooting the shot, on a small pocket.

If you were to shoot the shot with no pressure, then you may make it 33% or possibly higher than 33 % of the time. But you must consider the small pocket before shooting this shot and other shots that carry a penalty if missed. The small pocket will always be your opponents ally.

Another factor that hasn't been discussed is the after shock of losing a game by shooting the 10 ball and selling out two or more balls.

Please don't tell me that players don't get down on themselves for what could be viewed by them as being a bad judgement option.

Another percentage that hasn't been addressed, and it's certainly there. Why give yourself a chance to beat up on yourself, have a little patience and when or if you lose the game the loss will not be nearly as bad of one.

Billy I.

Skin · Nov 25, 2011

Why oh why oh why, Ghost, didn't you just bank that 1 into your hole at pocket speed?

It looks like a dead 1/2 ball hit and it is your easiest ball to shoot off the cushion. Sometimes you've just got to say screw the score and take the best shot. If you hang it, you will win with the 10 ball over the line if he scratches behind. But you personally are likely to make it. Keep the pressure on at all times.

sez>Skin

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