Odds of winning third set after first two have been split

El Chapo

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The sands regency tournament used to be three races to seven for every match I believe. If a player won the first two sets, he won the match of course.

There were some stats that our own Billy I. rattled off at the finals of one of those tournaments. I’m just going to come clean, and say I can’t remeber the numbers (and I don’t have the vhs or a vhs player anymore, haha), but the stat was in all the matches that went to a final set (ie one set a piece), in the final set the player who won the first set was heavily favored to win the match.

I hope someone could correct me if I’m wrong on that, and also maybe let us know any insight you have on a stat like that. From memory, Billy was saying the player who won that first set was heavily favored to win the match. I find that fascinating, as on paper it should be 50-50 (or thereabouts) in my estimation.

This relates to one of the things I have been thinking in pool recently. Like this big one pocket match, it’s just my intuition, but I’d seriously guess DO would win this second session. Yet, if they play a third time, I’m telling you, I don’t know what will happen, but I think tony has a way better chance at that point. I have no idea why the hell I think that, but it seems to be supported by the three set sands data.

I don’t want to sway anybody into my way of thinking, I’d like to hear everyone’s objective opinions on the topic, but I think the stat is fueled by player passion. One of the most important driving forces for a player to win is his passion and desire for the victory. A player who has just lost a set, I’m proposing, is much more apt to have a relatively high level of motivation and passion, thus driving the anomalous (in my opinion) stat.
 
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Jimmy B

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The sands regency tournament used to be three races to seven for every match I believe. If a player won the first two sets, he won the match of course.

There were some stats that our own Billy I. rattled off at the finals of one of those tournaments. I’m just going to come clean, and say I can’t remeber the numbers (and I don’t have the vhs or a vhs player anymore, haha), but the stat was in all the matches that went to a final set (ie one set a piece), in the final set the player who won the first set was heavily favored to win the match.

I hope someone could correct me if I’m wrong on that, and also maybe let us know any insight you have on a stat like that. From memory, Billy was saying the player who won that first set was heavily favored to win the match. I find that fascinating, as on paper it should be 50-50 (or thereabouts) in my estimation.

This relates to one of the things I have been thinking in pool recently. Like this big one pocket match, it’s just my intuition, but I’d seriously guess DO would win this second session. Yet, if they play a third time, I’m telling you, I don’t know what will happen, but I think tony has a way better chance at that point. I have no idea why the hell I think that, but it seems to be supported by the three set sands data.

I don’t want to sway anybody into my way of thinking, I’d like to hear everyone’s objective opinions on the topic, but I think the stat is fueled by player passion. One of the most important driving forces for a player to win is his passion and desire for the victory. A player who has just lost a set, I’m proposing, is much more apt to have a relatively high level of motivation and passion, thus driving the anomalous (in my opinion) stat.



Yes, I remember that match, Chapo.. I was actually thinking about that match when Roger Griffis passed a few months ago..June 1990- Finals -Reno-Sands. Earl S and Roger G nine ball race to nine, best two out of three, but that was just the finals for that tournament. The other matches were single races to 11.. However at another tournament at Ceasars, they used that two out of three format all the way through and Dr. Bill revealed the stats that were surprising. In well over a hundred matches that went to three, the player who won the second set, who many might think would have the momentum going into the third, actually lost in the third set to the winner of the first set an amazing 80% of the time..

rip Roger The Rocket...
 
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El Chapo

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Yes, I remember that match, Chapo.. I was actually thinking about that match when Roger Griffis passed a few months ago..June 1990- Finals -Reno-Sands. Earl S and Roger G nine ball race to nine, best two out of three, but that was just the finals for that tournament. The other matches were single races to 11.. However at another tournament at Ceasars, they used that two out of three format all the way through and Dr. Bill revealed the stats that were surprising. In well over a hundred matches that went to three, the player who won the second set, who many might think would have the momentum going into the third, actually lost in the third set to the winner of the first set an amazing 80% of the time..

rip Roger The Rocket...

Wow 80 percent. That is amazing.

Well, I think if I remember correctly, this was three set for the entire tournament. The finals was Strickland Davenport. After Billy mentioned the stat it was one set a piece. Strickland had just played one of the most overpowering races to seven you could ever see, just ran packages, seemingly unbeatable. Then, Davenport wins, in support of the stat!

80 percent is just bonkers, that’s even higher than I thought.
 

sappo

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Yes, I remember that match, Chapo.. I was actually thinking about that match when Roger Griffis passed a few months ago..June 1990- Finals -Reno-Sands. Earl S and Roger G nine ball race to nine, best two out of three, but that was just the finals for that tournament. The other matches were single races to 11.. However at another tournament at Ceasars, they used that two out of three format all the way through and Dr. Bill revealed the stats that were surprising. In well over a hundred matches that went to three, the player who won the second set, who many might think would have the momentum going into the third, actually lost in the third set to the winner of the first set an amazing 80% of the time..

rip Roger The Rocket...

Thats some statistic, i can't see any logic to it though. sometimes numbers run funny and while for that certain period of game the results came in at 80% i don't think the player who wins the 1st set and losses the 2nd set becomes the favorite in the 3rd set let alone a 4 to 1 favorite. it just doesn't make any sense. keith
 

Jimmy B

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Thats some statistic, i can't see any logic to it though. sometimes numbers run funny and while for that certain period of game the results came in at 80% i don't think the player who wins the 1st set and losses the 2nd set becomes the favorite in the 3rd set let alone a 4 to 1 favorite. it just doesn't make any sense. keith


I know what you're saying, Keith.. I would have just said, umm 50-50 on that deal...
 

El Chapo

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That stat has played out like that in multiple tournaments.... the sands with the Strickland Davenport finals, and it sounds like the one jimmy mentioned too. I don’t think it is just a fluke, although I’d love to hear if there were any three set events where it didn’t pan out that way.

It’s interesting because someone brought up baseball. I wonder what the stat is on a team scoring the first run, the other team tying it up at some point, and then who wins more from there? I don’t think anyone would keep a stat like that though.

I wonder if there could be some sort of psychology behind it... like “we scored, ok they scored, ok now it’s time for us to score again”. I have no idea really, it’s such a mind bending statistic.
 

sappo

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I know what you're saying, Keith.. I would have just said, umm 50-50 on that deal...

all i can say is if there is an event where its a race to 3, anyone can lay me 6 to 5 before the event and ill take the player you wins the second set or the guy who wins the first set for the entire event. everyone keep me in mind. keith
 

El Chapo

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Yes, I remember that match, Chapo.. I was actually thinking about that match when Roger Griffis passed a few months ago..June 1990- Finals -Reno-Sands. Earl S and Roger G nine ball race to nine, best two out of three, but that was just the finals for that tournament. The other matches were single races to 11.. However at another tournament at Ceasars, they used that two out of three format all the way through and Dr. Bill revealed the stats that were surprising. In well over a hundred matches that went to three, the player who won the second set, who many might think would have the momentum going into the third, actually lost in the third set to the winner of the first set an amazing 80% of the time..

rip Roger The Rocket...

Jimmy, you rascal. I do remember now, deep within the bowels of my very poor memory I recall Billy saying it was “ a tournament where they played best two out of three sets.....”. Probably the one you mentioned. It wasn’t that way at the Davenport Strickland tournament like I remembered. Not that this disqualifies the point.
 

Jimmy B

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Jimmy, you rascal. I do remember now, deep within the bowels of my very poor memory I recall Billy saying it was “ a tournament where they played best two out of three sets.....”. Probably the one you mentioned. It wasn’t that way at the Davenport Strickland tournament like I remembered. Not that this disqualifies the point.

Kim and Earl played many times.. Kim could really play some nine ball, couldn't he?? And he matched up everywhere and bet his own.. He got hurt in an accident... Buddy made a comment during that match and said he would love for the format to be races to nine, two out of three, SINGLE ELIMINATION, all the way through for all nine ball tournaments.. The way he played, who could blame him for saying it.. The question is, Keith said he would take 6-5 on that bet, bucking the stats, so to speak.. Would you lay it?? I think I would if I knew the players and I could pick and choose.. LOL..
 
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