Ball spots equating to money line wagers
- Thread starter poolboy79
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Bob Jewett
Verified Member
Ball spots can roughly be the equivalent of games spots in 9 ball. The FargoRate site provides tools to get percentages. For example, if 9-8 is a fair match, FargoRate tells you that the two players are 17.6 FargoRate points apart. If you then set the match to 8-8, you get the match odds of 59% for the better player. I think this doesn't work so accurately for top-end players who can run 8-and-out, but it is a start.
A table of FargoRate equivalences to one pocket spots is in my November 2019 column in Billiards Digest.
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Bob Jewett
Verified Member
Maybe I did the numbers wrong. It does seem a little lopsided.
But the tool also says that at nine ball, if two even players match up at 9-8 (one game on the wire) by "mistake", the player getting the spot is 60-40. I think this just reflects all the matches that go hill-hill and you could think of all of them being awarded to the spotted player.
If it's true, you could offer money odds that looked good but weren't, like 6-5 on the money instead of giving up 9-8.
darmoose
Verified Member
If I am playing someone getting 9/8 and usually breaking even, or going back and forth, and we decide to play even, 8/8, you're saying he will win 6 out of 10 games(that is 3/2 on the money). I will only win 4 out of 10 games. I don't think that is out of line or crazy at all, after all, one more win for me is 50/50. I wouldn't bet I could attain a 50/50 outcome playing even with that opponent.
What am I missing?
What am I missing?
catkins
Verified Member
also with bigger spots it gets even better for the better player
Lets say you give a guy 10 6 and instead play even. How many games will that guy win in 20
to make it close to fair it would have t be like 10 to 1 on the money I would say and if the better player is careful they should still come out ahead
Lets say you give a guy 10 6 and instead play even. How many games will that guy win in 20
to make it close to fair it would have t be like 10 to 1 on the money I would say and if the better player is careful they should still come out ahead
Bob Jewett
Verified Member
Well, if you trust the FargoRate math, if 10-6 is a draw, 8-8 is going to favor the stronger player 85%-15% or about 6:1 on the money. I imagine a lot of players would take 2:1 on the money instead of 10-6. They might figure that since the ratio is better, it must be a better game. They might really go for 3:1.
NH Steve
Administrator
I came up with a little gimmick that takes advantage of odds on the money. "OK, I'll give you 60/40 on the money but nobody pays unless they go ahead by two. After all, if we are going back and forth trading games, then we are playing even."
darmoose
Verified Member
So, yu don't think you can win 6 out of ten games playing him even? Of course you can, probably more than that. Well if you are giving 3 to 2 on the money and he's betting $100, you are betting $150 and you win 6 out of 10 games, you just broke even on the money. That is not fair to you?
Sounds as though maybe you are looking to rob this poor bastard.
He has to win just as many games as you do to win any money at all. Why would he take that bet if you have been giving him 9/8?
NH Steve
Administrator
I'd like to see what you came up with Bob. This whole question is an interesting topic.
I don't think thats right. I play a few guys that give me 10-6 and i would mortgage my house to play 8-8 if I was getting 10 to1 on the money!!! K
Bob Jewett
Verified Member
And so if the roles were reversed you would take 11-10 on the money to play even?
Bob Jewett
Verified Member
Maybe I lent to the confusion. The FargoRate tool doesn't much care whether it's counting nine-ball games or balls made within a single game of one pocket. The underlying math is the same. On the FargoRate site it is stated as games, but we can use it as balls.
Well it's been frequently stated that 9/8 is probably the least amount you can give someone as far as a ball spot goes.
With that in mind does that equate to giving someone +150 when they win and only collecting +100 when I win?
A ball spot of 9/8 is saying that the game is fairly even to begin with so I might actually come out ahead playing even sometimes. Or if we each win the same amount of games I would come out ahead money wise.
So, yu don't think you can win 6 out of ten games playing him even? Of course you can, probably more than that. Well if you are giving 3 to 2 on the money and he's betting $100, you are betting $150 and you win 6 out of 10 games, you just broke even on the money. That is not fair to you?
Sounds as though maybe you are looking to rob this poor bastard.
He has to win just as many games as you do to win any money at all. Why would he take that bet if you have been giving him 9/8?
You're assuming that the favorite has to win every session all the time. I don't believe that to be true especially between guys who play within 9/8 of each other.
So, yu don't think you can win 6 out of ten games playing him even? Of course you can, probably more than that. Well if you are giving 3 to 2 on the money and he's betting $100, you are betting $150 and you win 6 out of 10 games, you just broke even on the money. That is not fair to you?
Sounds as though maybe you are looking to rob this poor bastard.
He has to win just as many games as you do to win any money at all. Why would he take that bet if you have been giving him 9/8?
I'm not looking to rob any one. Just looking for some different perspectives.