Ball spots equating to money line wagers

poolboy79

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Another way to look at it. If you were to book a match between 2 players with 1 player able to give the other 9/8 and said they were going to play even but the under dog is gonna get +150 and even money for the favorite do you think you would get any action on the favorite?

If you were booking the match it would probably be something like even /6 imo.
 

LSJohn

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that cant be right. 9,8 difference changing one ball certainly isnt 59% then you would be saying laying 3 to 2 in the money is about fair. thats crazy.
I don't know shit, but I know that's right. :D
 

LSJohn

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If I am playing someone getting 9/8 and usually breaking even, or going back and forth, and we decide to play even, 8/8, you're saying he will win 6 out of 10 games(that is 3/2 on the money). I will only win 4 out of 10 games. I don't think that is out of line or crazy at all, after all, one more win for me is 50/50. I wouldn't bet I could attain a 50/50 outcome playing even with that opponent.

What am I missing? :unsure:
You wanna bet $60 a game against $40 with someone you are only 9/8 over? If you win only 5 out of 10 you blow $100 and you'd have to win 7 out of ten to show a profit.

IMO, 60-40 would come in at about race to 7 or 8, not game-by-game.
 
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darmoose

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You wanna bet $60 a game against $40 with someone you are only 9/8 over? If you win only 5 out of 10 you blow $100 and you'd have to win 7 out of ten to show a profit.

IMO, 60-40 would come in at about race to 7 or 8, not game-by-game.
I think all this just shows how close the game is. I don't understand how you can spot someone 9/8 and not bet you can win 6 games out of 10 games playing even. If you win only 5 you lose, if you win 6 you break even, if you win 7 you get the $. You can't slice it thinner than that, if you get odds better than 3/2 you are advantaged.

We all know the better player can overcome the odds better than the lesser player. We are trying to come up with the even and fairest game, aren't we (by the numbers)?

You wanna win money playing even and only winning 5 games out of ten. I bet the other guy feels differently............JMHO
 

poolboy79

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I think all this just shows how close the game is. I don't understand how you can spot someone 9/8 and not bet you can win 6 games out of 10 games playing even. If you win only 5 you lose, if you win 6 you break even, if you win 7 you get the $. You can't slice it thinner than that, if you get odds better than 3/2 you are advantaged.

We all know the better player can overcome the odds better than the lesser player. We are trying to come up with the even and fairest game, aren't we (by the numbers)?

You wanna win money playing even and only winning 5 games out of ten. I bet the other guy feels differently............JMHO
So what do you think rights odds are?
 

catkins

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the thing that should be said here is that this is a long time proposition i am assuming so if you fail to win one night but win the next three that is still net gain which is what the odds say if your a better player playing him even
 

cincy_kid

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I am not sure how easy it is to do this with balls in a given game versus doing it with games in a race as Bob pointed out earlier.

It is an interesting topic however and I would be curious to hear what Dr. Bill thinks approximate odds would be and if it were possible to handicap it fairly that way.

For me personally if I think about it, if someone spots me 10/6 and we go back and forth which means its a pretty even spot and now wanted to play even, I would play if I got 10/1 on the money for sure, 8/1 probably, much less than that I would rather play 10/6. That is based on no algorithm, that's just an off the top of head answer. :)
 

LSJohn

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Here, play with this:

9/8 = 115
8/7 = 120
10/8 = 140
9/7 = 150
8/6 = 175
9/6 = 200
8/5 = 250
 

sappo

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Here, play with this:

9/8 = 115
8/7 = 120
10/8 = 140
9/7 = 150
8/6 = 175
9/6 = 200
8/5 = 250
I like it, I think the money line might be a little light on the larger spots but a good starting point. Keith
 

LSJohn

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I like it, I think the money line might be a little light on the larger spots but a good starting point. Keith
I had the same feeling as a second thought, but I'd like to see what others think.

How about the last 3 ---> 200, 250, 300. I think that looks better.

If I need 8-5 for a fair game, but get 3/1 to play even , 3 games in 12 breaks me even. That sounds about right to me.

You know, it's shit like this that gave gambling its start. :D
 
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Bob Jewett

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Here, play with this:

9/8 = 115
8/7 = 120
10/8 = 140
9/7 = 150
8/6 = 175
9/6 = 200
8/5 = 250
The Fargo calculation gives 148, 155, 207, 231, 265, 393, and 510, which seem a high, but what if they're right? We need to do the experiment.
 

LSJohn

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We need to do the experiment.
It's gonna be tough for me because I've never found anyone who would spot me what I need to break even, so how do I know what it is? :D

BTW, I'm sure glad to see you commenting around here more recently... 👍
 

Billy Jackets

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I don't think thats right. I play a few guys that give me 10-6 and i would mortgage my house to play 8-8 if I was getting 10 to1 on the money!!! K
I decided not to weigh in on this, because if someone believes strongly enough, that they want to bet using a formula predicated on any of the systems presented so far , I might want to stick my big fat nose in it. They might be perfectly correct , I don't know , I have hardly heard of anyone giving money odds in my 60 years of pool.
But , I don't think so, and I might be willing to blow some of the kids inheritance, to help prove or disprove some of these formulas.:eek:
 
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cincy_kid

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if someone gives me 8/5, I think I need more than 3 to 1 on the money playing even, I am not sure 5 to 1 is even in my comfort range, but that may be just me.

I think a lot of those numbers are good for 9/7 and above when its more evenly matched, but when you get into the bigger spots, then you try to play a guy even, you may not win a game ever, they are so confident that they are playing you even now, it will show up on the table.
 

androd

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For example, if I gave someone 8-7 but instead of balls they would rather get odds on the money. What would that equate too? How about other spots as well?

8-7 = 120
8-6 =140
9-7=130
and so on
Just my opinion.
 

unoperro

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I believe there is a problem that isnt being addressed. This is the extreme,but should get you thinking.
If 10 games are played even A wins 9 he made 75 balls
B wins 1 he made 70 balls

The 9 to 1 winner might have lost every game giving 8 to 7.
 

beatle

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fargo must not be using game by game odds, but using odds on a race. two entirely different scenarios for the probability.

and the longer the race the higher the odds go for the underdog to win playing even. and if you make the race long enough, his chances approach zero.
 

sappo

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I believe there is a problem that isnt being addressed. This is the extreme,but should get you thinking.
If 10 games are played even A wins 9 he made 75 balls
B wins 1 he made 70 balls

The 9 to 1 winner might have lost every game giving 8 to 7.
It could happen but not likely. You can massage numbers like that to have weird outcomes BUT in real games what are the odds that would happen? K
 

baby huey

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I used to play a lot of guys who wanted spots and didn't need them. It was frustrating to get them down because they were "nut hunters." So I used to tell them I'd give them any spot they wanted if they laid me the same price on the money. If they asked for 8/6 I'd say lay me $80-$60 on the money. That money line changed everything. I even had a guy who played the same speed as me ask for 8/2 and he laid me $80/$20. I won two in a row and he quit. Spots in One Pocket are mostly psychological and can either make you look stupid or a hero by out running the nuts. Add in the money line feature and the game changes entirely.
 
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