The Real Price off a Free Scratch

[wincardona]

Artie, here is a golden chance to get a hundred out of Cardone, while only putting up a buck!! This opportunity almost never comes up, so we should investigate this further. After all, $100 is almost enough to buy a cup of coffee and a plain doughnut at Harrah's...

This from Wikipedia: "Probability is a way of expressing knowledge or belief that an event will occur or has occurred. Statistics is the science of the collection, organization, and interpretation of data." The two disciplines can obviously go hand in hand.

What Billy is referring to are statistics. But a statistician could not give us the answer here. I believe a probability expert would have enough data, based upon this specific question, to establish a formula which would give us an idea of what a scratch, or a free scratch, or a foul would be worth in this set of circumstances.

Do you know anyone from the university that could put you in contact with a probability professor? We have a university here, but all they teach is Cajun cooking, metal shop, and courses on William Faulkner.

I have a book Probability for Dummies by Deborah Rumsey, PhD; but after diligently trying to follow the formulae set ups, my mind shut down. I need a probability book for sub-dummies.

Doc

Exactly my point, you said a probability expert can come up with a formula to give us AN IDEA not an exact answer. The reason he won't be able to give us an exact answer is because there is none. And the only way he will be able to give us an idea of the answer is to pick two players and play out the two differen't games 100's of times and add up the balls pocketed by the player getting the free push in both scenarios deduct the balls pocketed in the games without the push against the balls pocketed with the push and divide that number by the amt of games played . If you play 100 games of both scenarios then you would divide the ball difference by 100, that will give you the ball value for the free push FOR THOSE TWO PLAYERS.
And that answer would only be an approximate value, but close enough to make a game.

Billy I.

 

[androd]

Exactly my point, you said a probability expert can come up with a formula to give us AN IDEA not an exact answer. The reason he won't be able to give us an exact answer is because there is none. And the only way he will be able to give us an idea of the answer is to pick two players and play out the two differen't games 100's of times and add up the balls pocketed by the player getting the free push in both scenarios deduct the balls pocketed in the games without the push against the balls pocketed with the push and divide that number by the amt of games played . If you play 100 games of both scenarios then you would divide the ball difference by 100, that will give you the ball value for the free push FOR THOSE TWO PLAYERS.
And that answer would only be an approximate value, but close enough to make a game.

Billy I.

Or you could take Dennis' word for it . It's worth spit. He may've said not worth spit.
Rod. <------likes Dennis' evaluation.

 

[Artie Bodendorfer]

Or you could take Dennis' word for it . It's worth spit. He may've said not worth spit.
Rod. <------likes Dennis' evaluation.

What you are saying and who agrees with you is completly incorrect. And dont no howe to figure out probabilities.

If you new howe to do probabilities you would come up with the correct percentage. But I see by your answer you do not no,

And its ok not too no . And I dont no how to do it either with probabilities to come up with the correct percentages. . But I no you dont have too play all those games you are talking about.

To get the correct answer. And If anyone knowes a probability expert.

I will be happy too talk too him too get his answer. And I no he will come up with the correct answer. But this going back and forth is noy changing anything.

We need the person who knowes probabilities to come uo with the answer and soulve the problem with a salouyion.

And I have never herd off a probability person not comeing up with the answer. So thr key too all off this is to get a probability expert. Getting the correct answer is the saloution.

Not just talking back and forth and both sides saying what the think and want too hir. WE all need the answer. And who is the person too soulve the problem. Is a probabilitiy expert.

Or this can go on for ever disagreeing. Nothing is lost but time. WE need the person who can give the correct answer to the qouistion.

The answer is the saloution too the problem. Not just say so or thier is no answer.

And thier is a answer. Belive it or not. Because that person can salove any math qouistion thier is. And thier have been harder ones then this for them.

Looking for a Probability expert? THank you

 

[fred bentivegna]

Ready, aim...

Ready, aim...

Will somebody please fire a coupla mortar rounds at this thread?!
This twaddle and pap is making the Duck's twaddle and pap almost make sense.

Beard

 

[wincardona]

What you are saying and who agrees with you is completly incorrect. And dont no howe to figure out probabilities.

If you new howe to do probabilities you would come up with the correct percentage. But I see by your answer you do not no,

And its ok not too no . And I dont no how to do it either with probabilities to come up with the correct percentages. . But I no you dont have too play all those games you are talking about.

To get the correct answer. And If anyone knowes a probability expert.

I will be happy too talk too him too get his answer. And I no he will come up with the correct answer. But this going back and forth is noy changing anything.

We need the person who knowes probabilities to come uo with the answer and soulve the problem with a salouyion.

And I have never herd off a probability person not comeing up with the answer. So thr key too all off this is to get a probability expert. Getting the correct answer is the saloution.

Not just talking back and forth and both sides saying what the think and want too hir. WE all need the answer. And who is the person too soulve the problem. Is a probabilitiy expert.

Or this can go on for ever disagreeing. Nothing is lost but time. WE need the person who can give the correct answer to the qouistion.

The answer is the saloution too the problem. Not just say so or thier is no answer.

And thier is a answer. Belive it or not. Because that person can salove any math qouistion thier is. And thier have been harder ones then this for them.

Looking for a Probability expert? THank you

Artie, what your failing to understand is that you cannot apply math to uncertainties. All uncertainties only have an estimated value, not an exact value. If they had an exact value, then they wouln't be referred to as uncertainties.

Take the break in one pocket for an example, we have been haggling back in forth for years what the value of the break is worth. It's probably worth between 9/8 to 9/7 depending on many variables. You cannot get a probabilities expert to give you an exact value on the break playing one pocket, because of all the uncertainities involved.

Playing pool in regard to propositions that are clouded with uncertainities, we the players are the probabilities experts, because we the players are the only ones that have seen games like the games being discussed played many, many times and have developed an understanding on the approximate value in most of them. Example: The break in one pocket is worth approximately 10/8 in ball value.

Trust me, i'm a (pool) probabilities expert

Billy I.

 

[Ktown]

Artie, what your failing to understand is that you cannot apply math to uncertainties. All uncertainties only have an estimated value, not an exact value. If they had an exact value, then they wouln't be referred to as uncertainties.

and there it is.....the golden egg.

 

[Artie Bodendorfer]

and there it is.....the golden egg.

THier not uncertainties thats what you are calling them. Andall I am asking is to get a probability expert and he will give you the correct percentage. Weather you or I agree with it.

Either we get the answer from the probability expert or nothing gets soulved. And because I dont agree they call that me being stuburn.

When I see both sides doing the same thing.

Excepte for me wanting to get the correct answer. From a qualified expert. Withch yiou are going in the opposite direction.

And what someone just too agree with you. I cannot agree to something I no and belive is not correct.

And again if neither side gives in then a nutral party has to give a decision. And that party is the person that can figure out the answer to the qouistion.

And just too agree with someone does not help anyone. If the answer is not correct.

Thier meeds to be a person that is a probability expert that can soulve the saloution. And give the correct answer too the qouistion? That is the only way to get the answer that people will excepte.

And according too you and some people who agree with you that thier is no way for someone to figure out the correct answer.

 

[Artie Bodendorfer]

Will somebody please fire a coupla mortar rounds at this thread?!
This twaddle and pap is making the Duck's twaddle and pap almost make sense.

Beard

Fred do you no a probability expert. That can figure out the correct percentage on the qouistion? Give that person my number.

And have him call me. Do you also think that the rules were made for a even game or a handy cap game.

Or because the rule has been used for both cases. Because they only had the one rule and was used for all one pocket games.

Did the person who made the rule not even think about what the rule should be.

For big handycap games? Also if a player is getting 4 to 1 for every ball he makes. How can ball for ball be correct.

Whatever your answer is its ok with me. But if you no a brobability expert that would be a big help.

And all games that are is what the game is. The spot is made before the game not during ior after the game.

And you no that handycap games are different then even up games. But the only have the rules for even up games. Thier is not a rule book for handycap games. Because whoever made the rules made them for even up games.

And the players used those rules for all games. Because they had no other rules to go by. Just like if thier was a rule that the better player has to pay two balls on a scratch.

Instead off one because the player is getting 8 to 4 . Thrn thats what people would play by. But those rules were never nad or even considered.

I no you will understand this real good. Because you no a lot about spots and handy caps.

And a probability expert wiil give the correct percentage according too the spot. And they will have a number./ Not like people are saying its imposable. Because its not imposable.

 

[Artie Bodendorfer]

Or you could take Dennis' word for it . It's worth spit. He may've said not worth spit.
Rod. <------likes Dennis' evaluation.

The only persons word I would take is a person who can do the math and show everyone.

How he arived at the correct percentage off the qouistion. And that would have too be a probability expert.

And I have not herd or seen such a person. And even a math major might no be able too come up with the correct percentages.

Unless he knowes how too do probabilities.

 

[Artie Bodendorfer]

Artie, what your failing to understand is that you cannot apply math to uncertainties. All uncertainties only have an estimated value, not an exact value. If they had an exact value, then they wouln't be referred to as uncertainties.

Take the break in one pocket for an example, we have been haggling back in forth for years what the value of the break is worth. It's probably worth between 9/8 to 9/7 depending on many variables. You cannot get a probabilities expert to give you an exact value on the break playing one pocket, because of all the uncertainities involved.

Playing pool in regard to propositions that are clouded with uncertainities, we the players are the probabilities experts, because we the players are the only ones that have seen games like the games being discussed played many, many times and have developed an understanding on the approximate value in most of them. Example: The break in one pocket is worth approximately 10/8 in ball value.

Trust me, i'm a (pool) probabilities expert

Billy I.

I thought you were a doctor. Now you are a Doctor and a probability expert?

A Jack off all trades and a master off none. A Doctor suites you better.

If you are a expert on probanilities then figure out the percentages. That you said cant be done?

 

[gulfportdoc]

and there it is.....the golden egg.

Ktown, stick around. Billy lays eggs all the time...

Doc

 

[wincardona]

I thought you were a doctor. Now you are a Doctor and a probability expert?

A Jack off all trades and a master off none. A Doctor suites you better.

If you are a expert on probanilities then figure out the percentages. That you said cant be done?

Artie this is very confusing to me, you keep saying that you want a probability expert to answer the question, but you haven't asked the question. I'm under the impression that the question is, CAN A PROBILITY EXPERT FIGURE OUT THE EXACT BALL VALUE OF A FREE PUSH. If that's the question you have just say so because that's the debate that I think we're having.

I really don't care about your suggestion about what the penalty for a scratch should be for differen't skilled players, playing oneanother. I have never debated that with you. But I believe that the rules as they stand are an integral part of the matching up process. Once the rules are changed for any game, or sport then the oddsmakers will take the rule change into consideration and it will be reflected in the line, or spot. I feel as strongly about that as I do about the other debate we are having.

Trust me, i'm a doctor/probability expert.

Billy I.

 

[Artie Bodendorfer]

Fred do you no a probability expert. That can figure out the correct percentage on the qouistion? Give that person my number.

And have him call me. Do you also think that the rules were made for a even game or a handy cap game.

Or because the rule has been used for both cases. Because they only had the one rule and was used for all one pocket games.

Did the person who made the rule not even think about what the rule should be.

For big handycap games? Also if a player is getting 4 to 1 for every ball he makes. How can ball for ball be correct.

Whatever your answer is its ok with me. But if you no a brobability expert that would be a big help.

And all games that are is what the game is. The spot is made before the game not during ior after the game.

And you no that handycap games are different then even up games. But the only have the rules for even up games. Thier is not a rule book for handycap games. Because whoever made the rules made them for even up games.

And the players used those rules for all games. Because they had no other rules to go by. Just like if thier was a rule that the better player has to pay two balls on a scratch.

Instead off one because the player is getting 8 to 4 . Thrn thats what people would play by. But those rules were never nad or even considered.

I no you will understand this real good. Because you no a lot about spots and handy caps.

And a probability expert wiil give the correct percentage according too the spot. And they will have a number./ Not like people are saying its imposable. Because its not imposable.

Fred you can answer the qouistions ? If you asked me a qouistion I would answer it. Were all grown men.

And your not a polatician running for office. So if you dont want too answer the qouistion then dot.

All I am saying if it was the other way around I would answer it. Or give the reason you dont want too answer it. Billy or me wont hold it against you whatever answer you give.

And weather you answer or not I will go on tell someone figures out the math. But thanks for not answering.

 

[wincardona]

I thought you were a doctor. Now you are a Doctor and a probability expert?

A Jack off all trades and a master off none. A Doctor suites you better.

If you are a expert on probanilities then figure out the percentages. That you said cant be done?

How can I figure out the percentages on something I said that couldn't be done?

I'm a probability expert, not a magician.


Billy I.

 

[Artie Bodendorfer]

I thought you were a doctor. Now you are a Doctor and a probability expert?

A Jack off all trades and a master off none. A Doctor suites you better.

If you are a expert on probanilities then figure out the percentages. That you said cant be done?

Uncertainies are a name you gave them. THier is no such thing.

I asked what is the correct percentage off what a scratch is worth too the player giving the spot compaired to what a player is getting spotted.

And you want too lock in on youre free scratch or your free foul and call it a free push.

Witch you never called it in you early posts. But thats ok because thier is also a price that its worth.

According to the spot he is getting with the free push. What is he double pushes is that two balls or a loss of the game? Somebody must no a Probability expert?

I dont no whats the hold up. And we will see what the value off a push in a game is worth.

Since its free anyway and doesnt cost Dave nothing. BUt if he did the same thing in a game and was not getting a free push.

IT WOULD COST HIM A BALL IS THAT CORRECT. YES OR NO.

Can you answer yes or no without adding something different to the qouistion without answering the qouistion.

Its not hard to answer yes or no unless you want to avoid answering the qouistion.

I will answer a qouistion yes or no if someone asks me a qouistion. Without changing it too something else. And if Billy doesnt answer the qouistion.

Then someone else can answer the qouistion.

Because we all have seen push shots and the were called on us. And what did the push cost us one ball.

And a push shot is a foul. Evem though 40 years ok they would say it was ok if you took one stroke at it. But that rule was change Why .

Because the rule is correct and by pushing the cue ball thats a foul.

BUT PEOPLE DID IT FOR YEARS AND EXCEPTET IT. jUST LIKE IN EIGHT BALL NOBODY IN LIFE EVER HIRD YOU COULD SCRATCH THE CUE BALL IN THE POCKET AND NOT LOOSE. THATS A GOOD ONE.

And on a foul a player gets cue ball in hand thats a hell off a rule. And another horrable rule you cant push out. You must shoot or kick at a give up. Those rules are a joke. But a lot off rules have been changed.

Were are the handycap rules? And even the laws for murder are different even if its the same kind its different in different states.

And why doesnt a murder sentence have the same prison time. Its all the same. Excepte how they did it. So thier are brutele murders and I guss not brutell murder. But in reality Dead is dead. And the time sentences change.

And if you look at sports the rules keep changing. Because thier not correct. Rules dont stay they same forever.

So the rules apply in pool too. And because people have used them for a hundred years that does not mean those rules were correct for handycap games.


And I am sure that after hering this a lot off people dont agree with that rule.





Her is one witch is a better game 4 to 1 or 4 and ahalf to 1???????????

 

[Artie Bodendorfer]

and there it is.....the golden egg.

Thier is no uncertainty if you no what the spot is.

And he gets the same spoy each game.

That is clear as can be.

Thier is no uncertaintie.

Uncertaintie is not noweing what the spot is.But we no what the spot is.

 

[wincardona]

Thier is no uncertainty if you no what the spot is.

And he gets the same spoy each game.

That is clear as can be.

Thier is no uncertaintie.

Uncertaintie is not noweing what the spot is.But we no what the spot is.

I GIVE UP I GIVE UP I GIVE UP I GIVE UP I GIVE UP I GIVE UP I GIVE UP

Billy I. < GIVES UP

 

[Cowboy Dennis]

What If???

What If???

I have a lot of time at work to think sometimes and last night was a little slow so I started thinking about the worth of the "free push" that Dave got from whatshisname and I came up with a question that I also hope a probability expert (or maybe some of you) could answer. We all seem to have different viewpoints as to what the value is of the "free push" but I'd like everybody to consider this: What is the value of the "free push" if Dave plays 20 games in a row and never uses it? What about 30 games in a row? Does it still have the same value as if he had used it? If yes, how could it have value if it was never used? Would it only have value in games where it was used? Would that value be offset by the games in which it was not used? I'm confused .

RBL

 

[gulfportdoc]

... We all seem to have different viewpoints as to what the value is of the "free push" but I'd like everybody to consider this: What is the value of the "free push" if Dave plays 20 games in a row and never uses it? What about 30 games in a row? ...

What happens after the game or during the game is irrelevant to the probable odds prior to the game. In terms of handicapping, if the Saints win by 20 points when the line was that they'd lose by 3, it is irrelevant to the handicap established prior to the game.

If Peat was getting 18-4, and one free push, then I believe the value of that free push is approx. 2-1/4 balls. Peat himself believed it was worth "2+" balls.

Mathematically 18 to 4 is the same as 4-1/2 to 1. But limiting a free foul to a free push would lessen that value, possibly by about half. So 4-1/2 to 1 now becomes 2-1/4 to 1.

Doc

 

[SJDinPHX]

What happens after the game or during the game is irrelevant to the probable odds prior to the game. In terms of handicapping, if the Saints win by 20 points when the line was that they'd lose by 3, it is irrelevant to the handicap established prior to the game.

If Peat was getting 18-4, and one free push, then I believe the value of that free push is approx. 2-1/4 balls. Peat himself believed it was worth "2+" balls.

Mathematically 18 to 4 is the same as 4-1/2 to 1. But limiting a free foul to a free push would lessen that value, possibly by about half. So 4-1/2 to 1 now becomes 2-1/4 to 1.

Doc

Puhleeeze Doc,

200 posts. on the most boring, and meaningless propositon I have ever heard of...It rivals the "aiming system" threads on AZB...C'mon guy's, can't we find something better to spend all this time on ? It is much like "who was the better hitter, Babe Ruth, or Barry Bonds". Nothing can ever be proven...As Billy says, "I GIVE UP"....

El Duck <---still thinks one free scratch (or push-out) per game, in this context (with a guy getting 18 to 4), is worth absolutely zilch, and will hardly impact the outcome, of one session out of a hundred... Go ahead...prove me wrong !!!