Corey Deuel vs. Johnny Stone 2009 D.C.C.
The original post asked "what would you do" so here's a lower-level, non-world-beater, opinion.
First of all, I love banks. It's my favorite game. I'm a decent player, more of a mover than a maker. I've made the money a few times at the DCC and made the Monday rounds a couple of times, definitely no champion, just a mid-level player.
For me, the 5 may be a slightly higher percentage shot than the 1 but the 1 offers a better chance of getting more balls. However, for me, they both suffer from the same problem in this situation. If I don't make the shot, I'm leaving very good offensive player a wide open table.
Shooting the 5 and missing, leaves the 1 for sure and maybe the 4, 5 or 6.
Shooting the 1 sends the cueball towards the near end of the table which is pretty open. The 9, 6, 2 and two of the three balls near the spot have pockets, also the two balls near the middle (5,4) could be made straight back.
If I make either shot I'm going to get few but if I miss there's a damn good chance that the next time I get to the table, if I get back to the table, I'm going to be down a few balls.
So the big question for me is what are my chances of making either of these shots? Well, If I've been on the table for a while, settled in, made some shots, and feeling confident, I probably shoot one of them and take a chance on jumping out to a lead or maybe even finshing but,... for me, and this is a big BUT... this is my first shot, in the first game of the match, in my first game on the TV table, at the DCC, against a formidable offensive opponent. I don't want my first shot to be a nervous miss that turns Corey loose. Given that, I'm playing safe.
I think my first shot would be a soft safe off the left side of the 1 leaving the cue close to the end rail either around the right-most diamond (or left most depending on the exact angle) and the 1 close to the rail near the right side, forcing Corey to shoot down a pretty open table without much of a offensive shot.
Just a few thoughts from a lower level.
shw