G. Mathews vs. J. Parica 1995 Roanoke

[timdog24]

Steve....Right after Dennis posted this thread, that's the shot that I saw and considered....but it looked like the natural angle (meaning dead ahead) was laying too short (like about 3-in-the-side bank angle), so I never posted about that shot...but if it was laying so that a straight ahead hit would send the 2ball 3 rails and into the 7and 15 balls, and you would be leaving the cueball where he couldn't make the 13ball - then I think it would be an excellent shot - and probably the right shot.

- Ghost

I think that the skill level of the 2 players plays an important part here in what to shoot, as well as the tightness of the table. But, the overwhelming position of the balls for Grady tells me I better shoot at my hole.

Banking the deuce 3 rails isn't bad, but you'd still have way the worst of it. There's still really nothing that goes for you, and your opponent can thin the 1 or maybe the 9 ball towards his side and bring the cue ball back up table to the top right again. If your opponent didn't have the angle to thin one of those balls and naturally come back up table, he could also simply take a scratch, leaving you all alone up there staring at the at least 10 balls that all go for Grady, none for you (except the 1).

 

[tylerdurden]

It's like I give you eating money and you spend it on hookers.

Beard

Well, that sounds like the right thing to do to me without a doubt

 

[fred bentivegna]

Another way of looking at what I am trying to say is that there is a fine line between shooting a "give up shot" and shooting a tough shot in a dire situation that legitimately gives you a chance to win a game that you are otherwise at rather long odds in.

I'm not even sure it is a fine line -- it might even be a fat line for some players. The point is, taking a flyer can be as much an excuse to lose as it is an opportunity to win. Freddy -- just look at the names of the players you used to back the concept of Parica's shot: "Bugs, Ronnie, Kelly, Artie B, and Eddie Taylor". Guess what, those guys were (are) something special -- most of us would fail miserably playing many of their daring super-shots.

I think Dennis dropped a key point when he described Parica's shot choice here, "Parica took all of 25 seconds to shoot the carom of the 1 ball off the 5 ball, he never looked at any other shot." What that means to me -- and this is pretty friggin important -- is that Parica approached that shot with decisiveness and confidence. That is how winners need to approach that kind of shot. I'm going to go on record here and state that should be an important element for any of us in deciding if it really is "time to go" versus time to give up.

I think another element in the decision still needs to be, "Are there any reasonable to execute safeties that might give my opponent a chance to make a mistake?" I think there are a couple:
1. doing something off the 2 ball
2. playing the carom off the 8 (near Grady's side pocket) to noogie the troublesome 4-ball away. There is a nice little gap between the 4-ball and Grady's side rail that makes a good target for that kind of carom. The angle looks pretty close to the natural 30 degree angle to me. I didn't mention this shot because I think other people already did.

Because I like you, Steve, I am going to keep on keeping on. I must continue to reject your logic in these situations because you are proceeding from a false premise. You are basing your argument on your skill level, that rightly so, would have extreme difficulty executing the shots I have been suggesting. But I think your logic is flawed, because it is based on you and other shortstops playing against Grady or Parica -- EVEN. You are imagining that you have to come with that moonshot and then come with 6 or 7 more to get out of that situation --- against Grady or worse. In that, not-relevant-to-this-discussion scenario, you probably should look to bunt something away somewhere and forget about the give-up. I wont argue against that.

But, how about if you are playing an even game against another shortstop or worse who don't figure to run out if you miss? Makes that choice a little "easier" doesnt it? Or if you were playing Grady or Parica and you were getting 14 to 4 or something like that. Would that put a little zip into the stroke?

Let me explain myself a little more re these discussions. I am not so dumb or so arrogant as to make my suggestions and shot choices based on a skill level that I used to have when I was in top stroke. Give me more credit than that. Usually I try to make my suggestions "idiot proof." Simple solutions. Stuff you can do under pressure -- because who cares what only works for fun?

Beard

I wont even mention the value of the fear factor you will instill in your opponent.

 

[NH Steve]

We agree more than you realize Fred.

 

[tylerdurden]

I think in situations like this, players think too much about how the guy is going to make some great shot and run out. The reason they do this is because those are the times they have been hurt mentally the most in the past, when they let a guy go, and he runs out.

First, grady wasn't an offensive powerhouse. I personally think the key to this situation is giving grady some sort of even or less than even money shot to shoot at and leave him on the rail and let him go. Just leave him so he cant mak that ball rail first and double him up (it is hard to see exactly where id put him from the angles presented). Grady cant really take a scratch from down there. He could come off that 1 ball and come back down, but he could easily leave you a look or a better angle to take out those balls or he could scratch, or he could run into on of those balls on your side rail! I just happen to think that making him execute something from the rail is a way better percentage than shooting that carom (what is the price on that carom anyway?). In short, I think the key to winning in many of these spots is to give the guy who thinks he has a lock a tough shot, then there is a little gulp going on there before he pulls the trigger. You have a lot going for you. That's how i saw it, I guess the result parica got proves me wrong :frus

 

[jtompilot]

Ok, great shot. Now there are 4 balls in front of Grady's pocket. Does Parica make the 9 and run out.

 

[fred bentivegna]

I think in situations like this, players think too much about how the guy is going to make some great shot and run out. The reason they do this is because those are the times they have been hurt mentally the most in the past, when they let a guy go, and he runs out.

First, grady isn't an offensive powerhouse. I personally think the key to this situation is giving grady some sort of even or less than even money shot to shoot at and leave him on the rail and let him go. Just leave him so he cant mak that ball rail first and double him up (it is hard to see exactly where id put him from the angles presented). Grady cant really take a scratch from down there. He could come off that 1 ball and come back down, but he could easily leave you a look or a better angle to take out those balls or he could scratch, or he could run into on of those balls on your side rail! I just happen to think that making him execute something from the rail is a way better percentage than shooting that carom (what is the price on that carom anyway?). In short, I think the key to winning in many of these spots is to give the guy who thinks he has a lock a tough shot, then there is a little gulp going on there before he pulls the trigger. You have a lot going for you. That's how i saw it, I guess the result parica got proves me wrong :frus

More invalid reasoning. I am starting to think I am spinning my wheels and peeing in the wind. Reason and Results are being trumped by old, outmoded beliefs. Results: Parica doing just what I said and it working out. Reason: Just who do you think is going to have to go for a marginal shot? Grady? You think you are going to force Grady to take a tough shot when he has his pocket loaded to the brim? Or will it have to be the other guy who is in a death trap?

Think of it like a small group of soldiers that are surrounded by a vastly superior force and the small group hoping that the superior force will surrender. ???!!!
Their only chance is a suicide charge thru the lines and maybe they can break thru and escape. They will probably get killed, but at least this way they gave themselves a chance.

Beard

 

[tylerdurden]

More invalid reasoning. I am starting to think I am spinning my wheels and peeing in the wind. Reason and Results are being trumped by old, outmoded beliefs. Results: Parica doing just what I said and it working out.

Beard

I agree with you in many ways, just that I would never shoot this because it would never go in, ever (for me). I even admitted I was wrong

But, if I may use your own argument, I guess you may be saying if Parica would have happened to miss the one, then I would be correct? What are the odds on missing that one?

I'll tel you what, and it really isn't much use debating this too much, but if parica pockets that 2 and freezes him on the rail (this would also preclude the 9 from going in grady's hole), im guessing grady comes off the one thin and back down. As I said, could go right in the drink, could roll of 1/32 of an inch and hit the balls on paricas side rail, could leave parica an easy take out angle. It just isn't a comfortable shot, and let HIM do the uncomfortable shot. I'm really not right, just saying for the sake of saying/discussion So never any spinning of the wheels going on here, quite the opposite I think

 

[wincardona]

Parica is down 0-1 this game and it's his shot. What would you do?

View attachment 6303

View attachment 6304

I have my own feeling and understanding about situations of this kind which are based off of playing both champions and players that play my speed and also players that play much under me. The shot that Parica chose was imo the correct shot for just about any level of player because of the way the balls were laying. Parica shot a shot that not only offered him a chance to pocket, but it also carried with it an opportunity to possibly clear Grady's pocket. When you consider the degree of the threat in the situation that the shooter was confronted with plus the percentage to succeed I find it very hard to pass up an opportunity to get away from a situation where the inevitability of it seem so apparent.

There are three things that haven't been mentioned and discussed that are key when making decisions of this kind. #1. Projected percentage of success with the shot. #2. The reward #3 Percentage of losing with choosing another option I do understand that the percentage of success is higher for the better players, but there is a percentage of succeeding for all players.

With this particular shot the carom isn't that difficult of a hit because of the position of the 1 ball in relation to the 5 ball. Which would lessen the degree of difficulty for all level of players. Set up this type of carom and decide for yourself. I also believe that the fear of failing with the shot is much greater than the difficulty of the shot, for most.
I believe that the success rate, in terms of percentage for a player like Parica is around 50%, and for a player that plays 10-6 under Parica 33%. (It always helps to develop a feel for caroms)You must remember that this is a two way shot and there will be a percentage of the time when you will miss the 1 ball and still succeed with your choice of options. The reward for success should put the shooter in a favorable position to win the game. The better the player the more of a favorite. But lets not forget what Freddie mentioned about playing players your own speed, and that is the penalty for failing is less when weaker players play one another. I would guess that the percentage of games lost by choosing another option would be around 70% at least. If my evaluation of the situation is fairly close then shooting the 1 ball carom for any level of player isn't all that bad.

Dr. Bill

 

[wincardona]

I have my own feeling and understanding about situations of this kind which are based off of playing both champions and players that play my speed and also players that play much under me. The shot that Parica chose was imo the correct shot for just about any level of player because of the way the balls were laying. Parica shot a shot that not only offered him a chance to pocket, but it also carried with it an opportunity to possibly clear Grady's pocket. When you consider the degree of the threat in the situation that the shooter was confronted with plus the percentage to succeed I find it very hard to pass up an opportunity to get away from a situation where the inevitability of it seem so apparent.

There are three things that haven't been mentioned and discussed that are key when making decisions of this kind. #1. Projected percentage of success with the shot. #2. The reward #3 Percentage of losing with choosing another option I do understand that the percentage of success is higher for the better players, but there is a percentage of succeeding for all players.

With this particular shot the carom isn't that difficult of a hit because of the position of the 1 ball in relation to the 5 ball. Which would lessen the degree of difficulty for all level of players. Set up this type of carom and decide for yourself. I also believe that the fear of failing with the shot is much greater than the difficulty of the shot, for most.
I believe that the success rate, in terms of percentage for a player like Parica is around 50%, and for a player that plays 10-6 under Parica 33%. (It always helps to develop a feel for caroms)You must remember that this is a two way shot and there will be a percentage of the time when you will miss the 1 ball and still succeed with your choice of options. The reward for success should put the shooter in a favorable position to win the game. The better the player the more of a favorite. But lets not forget what Freddie mentioned about playing players your own speed, and that is the penalty for failing is less when weaker players play one another. I would guess that the percentage of games lost by choosing another option would be around 70% at least. If my evaluation of the situation is fairly close then shooting the 1 ball carom for any level of player isn't all that bad.

Dr. Bill

I just set up the carom and made it 5 out of 10 attempts, and who can say how many times I would of cleared Grady's pocket if I would of positioned the balls like they were positioned ? Maybe if the shot came up in a real game my make percentage wouldn't be at 50%, but I think it would be fair to say that my success percentage would.

Try to understand more about percentages when confronted with situations of this kind, mainly because most find it very difficult to pull the triggerbecause of the thought of failing. Understanding percentages will often lighten the fear of failing by putting it in the proper perspective, therefore inspiriting you with sound reasoning to give you the courage and confidence to do what you know is right, pull the trigger. After all, isn't that the same reasoning we use to decide whether it's right to play other types of shots, like a thin cut shot, or a long straight shot? Yes it is, what's the chances of making it, and if it feels right then go for it. Sorta like a gut feel we have when confronted with difficult shots, but none the less we are able to figure it out before shooting those types of shots because we have shot those types of shots a countless number of times, we also have practiced difficult shots to develop the understanding of the shot in terms of accuracy, and percentages of succeeding shooting them. Now all that's left is developing the understanding on caroms and combinations like we have with other difficult shots and then do the math. Like I have mentioned in the past, playing winning one pocket has a lot to do with knowing when to gamble, and when it's not right to gamble, and there isn't a better way to figure that out over understanding the percentages to succeed. Of course it always helps to understand what's available, and how readily available it is. Speculate, practice, speculate, practice, and then things become more available.

Dr. Bill

 

[fred bentivegna]

I agree with you in many ways, just that I would never shoot this because it would never go in, ever (for me). I even admitted I was wrong

But, if I may use your own argument, I guess you may be saying if Parica would have happened to miss the one, then I would be correct? No, no, a thousand times no. The correct shot is always the correct shot. Even if you miss, it is still the correct shot. The miss is built into the probabilities. What are the odds on missing that one? Cardone addesses that in the previous post with Parica being about even money to execute the carom.

I'll tel you what, and it really isn't much use debating this too much, but if parica pockets that 2 and freezes him on the rail (this would also preclude the 9 from going in grady's hole), im guessing grady comes off the one thin and back down. As I said, could go right in the drink, could roll of 1/32 of an inch and hit the balls on paricas side rail, could leave parica an easy take out angle. It just isn't a comfortable shot, and let HIM do the uncomfortable shot. I'm really not right, just saying for the sake of saying/discussion So never any spinning of the wheels going on here, quite the opposite I think

I am still fighting to get thru, Tyler. What you will find in your journeys is that bad situations usually get worse unless you get extremely lucky or take drastic measures.

I havent yet touched on the psychology of how a difficult shot can become "easier" once you realize that it has become a necessity to do it. Cardone touches on that angle slightly in the previous post. Do not underestimate the importance of that.
Here is a great line from Dr Bill's post--- I also believe that the fear of failing with the shot is much greater than the difficulty of the shot, for most. I wish that I had said that.
Actually, he covered the whole subject pretty good. I am so jealous.

BEard

 

[Cowboy Dennis]

All one-pocket game layouts can be traced back to a shot that led to the situation you find yourself in. I'll take you back several shots and show what led to the problem for Parica in the first place. Several shots previous to the originally posted pic, Parica played a lazy safety. He failed to draw back off the 2 ball here:





He left Mathews a bank at the 6 into the 9(with speed), allowing him to put the cueball uptable:



Parica shot the 1 in the corner from here and put the cueball behind the 13:



Mathews shot the 13 between the 4 & 10, past the 12 to the siderail and then it hit the 6 to leave Parica in the opening layout of this thread.



This is not a negative critique of Parica at all, it just illustrates how difficult this game is. You simply cannot hit every ball perfectly all the time. A misplayed safety drawing back off the 2 ball set this scenario up. We've all done that, we just don't expect great players to make the same mistakes we do.

After Parica made the 1 ball carom off the 5 this game continued on for awhile. Many strange twists & turns in it, just like many one-pocket games.

Dennis

 

[One Pocket Ghost]

I think that the skill level of the 2 players plays an important part here in what to shoot, as well as the tightness of the table.

Banking the deuce 3 rails isn't bad, but you'd still have way the worst of it. There's still really nothing that goes for you, and your opponent can thin the 1 or maybe the 9 ball towards his side and bring the cue ball back up table to the top right again. <------Why would you say that - do you not understand the objective of the shot? read my explanation :heh If your opponent didn't have the angle to thin one of those balls and naturally come back up table, he could also simply take a scratch, leaving you all alone up there staring at the at least 10 balls that all go for Grady, none for you (except the 1).

Tim....Like I said, I would only shoot the shot if it is laying well...and if it is laying well, the shot has a great chance succeding in it's objective - which is to hit the 7, or the 15, or both of them, causing two or three of those balls to open up around your pocket...

This successful unfolding of the shot means that everything that you said in your post that I bolded is incorrect...because...

You now have open balls in front of/near your hole - so he can't take the first intentional scratch down there...and he can't, as you say, thin any balls for a safety.....no, what happened is, you've turned the tables on him, and he has now been put on defense, and has to deal with those balls in front of your pocket...

You're hoping he will make a mistake now...or at the very least you achieve a stalemate = if he clears the balls from your pocket area - you'll have the return shot of removing, or safely dealing with the balls by his pocket.

- Ghost

Ps, If this shot was not laying right, I would also shoot the 1ball....and my choice of cutting it or playing the carom, would not be predicated on which shot is easier, as has been discussed here....For me I feel that the making of the carom or the cut are pretty equal, so I would choose whichever of those two shots gave me the better angle/chance of safely caroming into those balls by Grady's pocket.

 

[vapros]

This was a tremendous match by Jose. He went a combined 15-1 in his last three matches, against top players. It's hard to imagine that anyone was playing better one-pocket in 1995.

 

[NH Steve]

This was a tremendous match by Jose. He went a combined 15-1 in his last three matches, against top players. It's hard to imagine that anyone was playing better one-pocket in 1995.

..and this was an excellent thread that *should have* taught us some things

 

[Cowboy Dennis]

This was a tremendous match by Jose. He went a combined 15-1 in his last three matches, against top players. It's hard to imagine that anyone was playing better one-pocket in 1995.

I remember Weenie Beanie saying when Parica won the 1st game of this set that he was 11-0 in his last three matches, to that point. He had just beaten Mizerak 5-0 and beat another guy 5-0.

Dennis

 

[tylerdurden]

I would guess that the percentage of games lost by choosing another option would be around 70% at least. If my evaluation of the situation is fairly close then shooting the 1 ball carom for any level of player isn't all that bad.

Dr. Bill

I personally don't think the odds on that carom are even money, even for a top player. I guess it depends on the pocket size. Huge and I would think the percentage would approach that. For example, if that top ball is frozen to the other ball, vs almost frozen, that could/would throw the carom angle off enough to miss in and of itself.

I do tend to agree with the 70% loser stat from here, but if you play a shot so grady doesn't run out his next shot, get back to the table and do something productive, that 70% would go WAY down, and I see shots that i feel would leave very viable options when you get back. The 13 is actually bankable for parica too if he was able to shoot at something and come down there, which is very noteworthy I feel. I want to ask billy a question, and I say all this with all due respect to you and Freddy, did you make that carom your first time you shot it?? There are many shots I can think of where I/we may miss them the first time, and make them 8 or 9 times in a row after that.

I think when I disagree it may be some of the most profitable threads for me. It looks like i'm disagreeing, but i'm really learning. When I agree with everybody is when I learn nothing . I think the one thing missing in my game is not playing top players enough. Some of the best that ever wrapped their mind around this game are shooting at that 1, so it has to be the right shot... I guess I just need to play top talent more to realize it

Another good discussion to all

 

[wincardona]

I personally don't think the odds on that carom are even money, even for a top player. I guess it depends on the pocket size. Huge and I would think the percentage would approach that. For example, if that top ball is frozen to the other ball, vs almost frozen, that could/would throw the carom angle off enough to miss in and of itself.

I do tend to agree with the 70% loser stat from here, but if you play a shot so grady doesn't run out his next shot, get back to the table and do something productive, that 70% would go WAY down, and I see shots that i feel would leave very viable options when you get back. The 13 is actually bankable for parica too if he was able to shoot at something and come down there, which is very noteworthy I feel. I want to ask billy a question, and I say all this with all due respect to you and Freddy, did you make that carom your first time you shot it?? There are many shots I can think of where I/we may miss them the first time, and make them 8 or 9 times in a row after that.

I think when I disagree it may be some of the most profitable threads for me. It looks like i'm disagreeing, but i'm really learning. When I agree with everybody is when I learn nothing . I think the one thing missing in my game is not playing top players enough. Some of the best that ever wrapped their mind around this game are shooting at that 1, so it has to be the right shot... I guess I just need to play top talent more to realize it

Another good discussion to all

Happy 4th. to you too. But I never said that Parica had a 50% chance of pocketing the 1 ball, what I said that for a player like Parica the success percentage choosing the 1 ball option would be around 50%. Let's not forget that with this shot there are other way's to succeed other than pocketing the 1 ball.

And the answer to your other question is yes, I did pocket the 1 ball carom on my first attempt. And I also agree with what you said about playing a carom off of frozen multiple balls is different than playing a carom off a singular ball. And I also said that it doesn't hurt to familiarize yourself with caroms by practicing them, then if you need to play one off of multiple balls you'll know to hit less of the first ball of the carom.

And about that losing 70% of the time by choosing another option still stands, regardless of how you play it if you don't shoot the 1 ball carom, imo.

It's all about putting the work in to understand as much as you can about the percentages of succeeding with all types of shots, isn't it? After all playing one pocket at some point you will have the option to use that understanding, and then some you haven't learned.

Dr. Bill

 

[jtompilot]

Happy 4th. to you too. But I never said that Parica had a 50% chance of pocketing the 1 ball, what I said that for a player like Parica the success percentage choosing the 1 ball option would be around 50%. Let's not forget that with this shot there are other way's to succeed other than pocketing the 1 ball.

And the answer to your other question is yes, I did pocket the 1 ball carom on my first attempt. And I also agree with what you said about playing a carom off of frozen multiple balls is different than playing a carom off a singular ball. And I also said that it doesn't hurt to familiarize yourself with caroms by practicing them, then if you need to play one off of multiple balls you'll know to hit less of the first ball of the carom.

And about that losing 70% of the time by choosing another option still stands, regardless of how you play it if you don't shoot the 1 ball carom, imo.

It's all about putting the work in to understand as much as you can about the percentages of succeeding with all types of shots, isn't it? After all playing one pocket at some point you will have the option to use that understanding, and then some you haven't learned.

Dr. Bill

There are other ways for the shot to succeed but this was not it. If the 1 ball hung, it would have been a gravy train for Grady.

 

[fred bentivegna]

There are other ways for the shot to succeed but this was not it. If the 1 ball hung, it would have been a gravy train for Grady.

With all those balls in front of Grady's pocket, it was already a gravy train and anybody who elects to try and play conservative shots to wiggle out is sure to get run over by that train anyway.

Beard