Island Drive
Verified Member
Make the three with draw, getting position to 3 rail the stripe towards your hole ''leaving cue ball froze to head rail''.
I'm re-putting up two more, not wwyd, but whichwyd's from several years ago...since the old pics of these two shot-choices are gone, I re-photographed them...also...I have Chris Gentile answering our shot-choices for the first time.....
I was talking with Chris at the poolhall when I photographed these layouts, so I asked him his choices - I'll post his choices later - (don't hold your breath Doc )
In both of these threads that I'm putting up today, the scenario is: you're playing in an important game, against, not a champion, but against a good/solid player - for instance, an opponent who plays at least around myself, John H. and Frank's speed, or a little better...
In this first situation you need both balls, your opponent needs one, and you have the top right pocket...the choice is: make the 3, get on the hill, and then play a safety (the 12, btw, is froze on the rail - you don't have the angle to make the 3 and hold whitey to bank the 12 straight back next), or shoot the pretty-much dead-ahead 2-rail bank on the 12ball (which, btw, is froze on the rail), and try and get on out - and if you choose to bank the 12, you could stop whitey right there on the rail, or you could draw back a few inches and go for the snooker in case you miss the bank...here's the layout ------>
I am two railing the stripe all day long. I win the game if I make it and do not leave a shot if I miss. If I make the three I am in a long battle to win with one ball on the table.
? If you make the 3 ball you get first shot at game ball... if that isn't good enough for you or anyone else.. move to the back of the bus:sorry
P.S. Holy shit the bus is starting to fill up way more than I thought it would.. Have to look into one of those double deckers:lol:lol
They outlawed short-bus double-deckers in Florida. Too many head injuries when everyone ducked at once going under power lines.
? If you make the 3 ball you get first shot at game ball...
? If you make the 3 ball you get first shot at game ball... if that isn't good enough for you or anyone else.. move to the back of the bus:sorry
P.S. Holy shit the bus is starting to fill up way more than I thought it would.. Have to look into one of those double deckers:lol:lol
If you make the 12 ball, you get first shot at the game ball. AND ITS A LOCK, GAME OVER
I can't count the times on here where the recognized best and brightest have advised to pass up the obvious shot to go for the two ball OUT. Hard to figure out how this senerio is any different.:sorry
I'm with you Hendy.
I think it comes down to how you estimate your chances of at least hanging the 12, and how good your estimate turns out to be. (But once in a while you're gonna hang the 12 and he'll cut the 3 in.)
IOW, I think a good case can be made either way, but the 3 is the only way for me.
And people wonder why I lose my cool and become annoyed at stupdity.. Anyone passing up first shot at the win does not have a clue how to play one pocket.. PERIOD.. It really is incredible that people on a one pocket site everyday and play the game everyday don't learn a damn thing.
And people wonder why I lose my cool and become annoyed at stupdity.. Anyone passing up first shot at the win does not have a clue how to play one pocket.. PERIOD.. It really is incredible that people on a one pocket site everyday and play the game everyday don't learn a damn thing.
lll,
You chose the exact right shot the first time. Even the YMCA guy's would 2-rail the 12 ball.
Ghost. If I needed one and my opponent needed two, and I left my opponent this shot, I sure as hell would hope he would shoot to cinch the one! Even if the 2 railer did not fall, I would have to be an underdog from that position 80-90% of the time.
A great example of mine and Artie B's philosophy. Shoot the 2 railer, and no matter what happens with that choice you remain the "move up." Make it you can win, miss it your opponent is forced to play defense and remain the "move down."
the Beard
If I was sure I could bank the two railer & hide the ball if I missed, I would take the bank. The other ways I would shoot the bank was if I had been running some balls to get back in the game and had some confidence & momentum going. This plays a big part in my shot selection. I also might shoot the bank if I am in a long safety battle and think I might miss the fairly easy shot to the hole. If I'm stuck enough I go for everything LOL.
I tried this set up against myself and made the two-railer and got out the first try but then didn't make it about 5 or 6 times, but all but about one time the five was in some kind of akward spot. I decided I liked that shot better than doing battle 7 - 7 -- and MUCH better than the embarassment of missing the one on a failed cinch!
..........I also like the 5 ball 2 railer. I can also break this down in terms of probability and explain why one shot opposed to another is correct mathematically. In this instance shooting the two railer for a top player is the correct shot because on 4 1/2 inch pockets he should pocket the two railer at least once out of four attempts. The three times the ball is missed ,he will win that game at least 40% of the time,resulting in a 120 to 180 deficit in terms of games won.So the 1 out of 4 the two railer is pocketed is plus 1 game,plus the 1.2 games he picks up on the 3 remaining games that the two railer is not pocketed gives him a win % of 2.2 opposed to his opponents 1.8, which makes him an 11/9 favorite which is better than 6/5. Speaking conservatively,for a top player.
Hmmm....so who is it really, that doesn't have a clue as to knowing how to play One Pocket.....Rob says this ----->
...And 7 years ago when I first put up this shot choice, just about all the best/most knowledgable players on this site, said the 2-railer is the best choice here....here's their posts from back then ----->
..........
That was my answer, and I'm not even smart.
The key is that the 12 ball is probably a 20% or so shot to go, with a near certain win to follow. Even if it doesn't go, I'm the favorite to get the next ball. So 25% chance to win now, perhaps a 40% chance to win later (given a protected ball by my hole but needing 2 vs. 1).
If I make the 3 and then do something with the 12, I'm in the neighborhood of 50/50 thereafter.
Cory
Originally Posted by wincardona View Post
I also like the 5 ball 2 railer. I can also break this down in terms of probability and explain why one shot opposed to another is correct mathematically. In this instance shooting the two railer for a top player is the correct shot because on 4 1/2 inch pockets he should pocket the two railer at least once out of four attempts. The three times the ball is missed ,he will win that game at least 40% of the time,resulting in a 120 to 180 deficit in terms of games won.So the 1 out of 4 the two railer is pocketed is plus 1 game,plus the 1.2 games he picks up on the 3 remaining games that the two railer is not pocketed gives him a win % of 2.2 opposed to his opponents 1.8, which makes him an 11/9 favorite which is better than 6/5. Speaking conservatively,for a top player.
Hmmm....so who is it really, that doesn't have a clue as to knowing how to play One Pocket.....Rob says this ----->
...And 7 years ago when I first put up this shot choice, just about all the best/most knowledgable players on this site, said the 2-railer is the best choice here...here's their posts from back then ----->
..........
PS, It can be great fun, juxtaposing time frames - just like Quentin Tarantino does with his films...:heh
PPS, And now, if I may borrow from Rob...This is a really great, best ever WWYD:lol:lol:lol:lol
Unfortunately you are the one who is wrong again in saying over and over how wrong my shot choices are - and the answer is simple...
You see, you are only always cluelessly saying that to pathetically try and needle me.....
Whereas, I have the documented proof on my side:
I don't shoot all that straight, and never have...and yet I've been hill-hill or beat pro/top speed One Pocket players countless times, playing even, in tournaments, over the last 30 years....so how in the world could that have possibly happened, since all of these players could have given me the 5 and the breaks playing 9ball and still beat me?...
Because I out-moved them, that's how - just like I'd out-move you if we ever played......:sorry
- Ghst