breaking stats for the match

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lll

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AtLarge posted this on azb
,,,
,,
Games won by the breaker
fwiw after 3 days it was 74% dennis /62% scott

Orcollo
Day 1 -- 5 of 9
Day 2 -- 7 of 9
Day 3 -- 8 of 9
Day 4 -- 6 of 8
Total -- 26 of 35 (74%)

Frost
Day 1 -- 6 of 9
Day 2 -- 3 of 8
Day 3 -- 7 of 9
Day 4 -- 4 of 8
Total -- 20 of 34 (59%)

Both, 4-day total -- 46 of 69 (67%)
 
NH Steve

NH Steve

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That 67% is a bit higher than what I have calculated in other pro matches. Bottom line is, somewhere around 60+ % advantage breaker is to be expected in the long haul.
 
gulfportdoc

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I agree. 67% is high, although the statistics were somewhat skewed by Orcullo's over the top ball pocketing. His 74% win record on his break is unusually high; so much so that his play was able to drag up the statistics despite Frost's below average success. Frost's 59% was low. Generally speaking the pros are able to neutralize the break better than are the amateurs.

~Doc
 
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El Chapo

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Looking at those numbers it's a little scary because there are so many short race tournaments that'll go hill hill and now the breaker clearly has such a huge advantage.

What do you guys think about hill hill matches the breaker has to give up a ball? Do you think that's too much or a silly concept? Because the non breaker didn't do too much wrong now he's got way the worst of it in a hill hill match.
 
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LSJohn

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El Chapo said:
Looking at those numbers it's a little scary because there are so many short race tournaments that'll go hill hill and now the breaker clearly has such a huge advantage.

What do you guys think about hill hill matches the breaker has to give up a ball? Do you think that's too much or a silly concept? Because the non breaker didn't do too much wrong now he's got way the worst of it in a hill hill match.
Click to expand...

I wouldn't do that. We see so many players flip a coin when they had the chance to lag, and the skill of the lag would be unrewarded when the lag was won if we took a ball away.
 
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lll

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El Chapo said:
Looking at those numbers it's a little scary because there are so many short race tournaments that'll go hill hill and now the breaker clearly has such a huge advantage.

What do you guys think about hill hill matches the breaker has to give up a ball? Do you think that's too much or a silly concept? Because the non breaker didn't do too much wrong now he's got way the worst of it in a hill hill match.
Click to expand...

that is why you MUST win the lag
winning the lag is like beating your opponent to the shot
its a skill you should practice and be rewarded for your effort
jmho
 
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El Chapo

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This may not be true for pro tournaments so maybe my point is moot, but I feel the lag is such a superficial test many times. You just come up to the table cold and haven't hit a ball on it. It's true though in more professional matches where they've obviously hit balls on the table the lag is a better test of actual skill. The "feeling" I get though is still even though a guy wins a lag by say an eigth of an inch that should not equate to a 60 (or even 70!) some odd percent chance to win the match. That's too strong. One of those things where there's no way to settle it though.
 
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LSJohn

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El Chapo said:
This may not be true for pro tournaments so maybe my point is moot, but I feel the lag is such a superficial test many times. You just come up to the table cold and haven't hit a ball on it. It's true though in more professional matches where they've obviously hit balls on the table the lag is a better test of actual skill. The "feeling" I get though is still even though a guy wins a lag by say an eigth of an inch that should not equate to a 60 (or even 70!) some odd percent chance to win the match. That's too strong. One of those things where there's no way to settle it though.
Click to expand...

Instead of race to 3, race to 2, win by 2?
 
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FrenchAT

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El Chapo said:
This may not be true for pro tournaments so maybe my point is moot, but I feel the lag is such a superficial test many times. You just come up to the table cold and haven't hit a ball on it. It's true though in more professional matches where they've obviously hit balls on the table the lag is a better test of actual skill. The "feeling" I get though is still even though a guy wins a lag by say an eigth of an inch that should not equate to a 60 (or even 70!) some odd percent chance to win the match. That's too strong. One of those things where there's no way to settle it though.
Click to expand...

I understand where you are coming from as far as percentages but i have watched a guy practice his lag for 30 mins before every practice session. It means something, or he wouldnt be practicing it, i promise it is worth something percentage wise in the grand scheme.
 
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El Chapo

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FrenchAT said:
I understand where you are coming from as far as percentages but i have watched a guy practice his lag for 30 mins before every practice session. It means something, or he wouldnt be practicing it, i promise it is worth something percentage wise in the grand scheme.
Click to expand...

Right, I mean I agree. But what we are saying is essentially lags should decide Up to 70% of the hill hill matches (given the stats shown here). And that's why the guy is practicing them. All I'm saying is it's something to think about... do we want matches decided by lags? I'd rather have a match say decided by a spot shot or a standard one pocket bank or something, you see what I mean? But yeah there's no easy solution. I noticed in one of the more recent tournaments they were doing shootoffs at the end, with a very difficult cut shot being the decider.

So what about that? It wouldn't take too much longer. Match goes hill hill and the first guy to miss a standardized bank or a spot shot loses the break. It's a thought anyway, no perfect way to handle it I suppose.
 
youngstown

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breaking stats for the match

Whoa there. I wouldn't lock it in at that % based on one match played by the worlds best, won by the best shooter on earth. Comparing red delicious apples to an orange colored sniper rifle...
 
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LSJohn

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youngstownkid said:
Whoa there. I wouldn't lock it in at that % based on one match played by the worlds best, won by the best shooter on earth. Comparing red delicious apples to an orange colored sniper rifle...
Click to expand...

I've been watching this beaker win percentage for a while (without taking stats) and I think this match was an anomaly. I think typical average is under 60%.
 
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