Jeff sparks
Verified Member
I think the edge from being spotted the break is larger than the % advantage from breaking in regular matches. First, with the spot and breaking every rack, the breaker is going to dial in the break and get stronger and stronger breaks. Second, always having to start out from behind and equalize can wear you down a bit faster than doing that half the time.
So if in a gambling setting, the break is 1.5 balls, it may well be less than that in a tournament race to 3 setting.
All I was trying to get across is that the players need to be close in ability in order to get an accurate read on the value of the break... a good player playing a bad player isn’t going to render an accurate percentage... the good player will escape the break more often and win more games, nullifying an accurate stat, and skewing the overall study... I suppose it would be difficult to achieve a completely accurate breaker win percentage using any means... I think tournament matches and gambling matches would have to be in separate statistical categories for the obvious reasons...
It’s an interesting question to ponder though and I’d like to know more than the age old adage of “it’s worth a ball or two balls depending on who you’re playing.”
It’s my opinion that when two players of equal ability play, the player who breaks the best will win the money most of the time in gambling matches...
I also believe that to be true in a tournament format, but to a lesser extent due to the shortness of the contest...
Jerry M. suggested the breaker win advantage at 5%, which is 55/45...
I agree that should be close...