NICK vs EFREN

[lll]

leaving himself like this
he then ran out game over
ill go thru his run in the am
how would you run out from here??

 

[lll]

I don't need no stinkin' cookies, I already know what he shot. I showed MY F@#king shot.

Where do you think my layout came from?

RBL

must have started hydrating early tonight:lol:heh

 

[lll]

if i would have thought of it i would have shot dennis shot
i would have done what billy suggested
banked the 1 and left the cueball on the head rail

 

[wincardona]

pretty smart player

pretty smart player

Once again Reyes shows his smartness, realizing that if he played the bank the way I and most would of played it his potential was one ball, or hanging it and his opponent making it for him. But if he played to win the game he would bank the 1 ball with a better speed to hit it accurately and possibly win the game with the shot.

Now that I look at the results and figure out his reason for playing it the way that he did, it made perfect sense. Stroud gets the cookie and Reyes gets the cash once again.

Billy I.

 

[tylerdurden]

efren then banked the 1 and left himself like this
he KNEW he would make the bank
utherwise why leave the cue ball where he did
"smart shot"
View attachment 4633

Sorry if I take your words too literal, but he "knew" nick probably couldn't get so many from here even if he missed. I see astute players do this all the time, and I overlook it, flat out shoot at the game when the other guy could only get maybe one or two. A strong principle to keep in mind.

 

[lll]

Sorry if I take your words too literal, but he "knew" nick probably couldn't get so many from here even if he missed. I see astute players do this all the time, and I overlook it, flat out shoot at the game when the other guy could only get maybe one or two. A strong principle to keep in mind.

i dont disagree with your statement
but i dont think efrenshot it as a 2 way shot
but i dont see this as the reason for why he shot it because of where he left the cue ball
(we know efren leaves the cue ball where he wants to 99% of the time)

but i think you would agree that positioning balls in your favor leaving your opponent safe ie putting the "squeeze"/pressure on is almost as important
or leads to you making balls
leaving the cue ball on his(efrens) half of the table with neither distance or the stack or severaql balls as an obstacle
gives nick a relatively easier chance to start to take control of the game
than if for example he it the way Bill Stroud suggested still going for it but leaving the cue ball in alittle tougher position for a reply if he missed the shot

agree?? yes/no
its not personal
its learning

 

[NH Steve]

i dont disagree with your statement
but i dont think efrenshot it as a 2 way shot
but i dont see this as the reason for why he shot it because of where he left the cue ball
(we know efren leaves the cue ball where he wants to 99% of the time)

but i think you would agree that positioning balls in your favor leaving your opponent safe ie putting the "squeeze"/pressure on is almost as important
or leads to you making balls
leaving the cue ball on his(efrens) half of the table with neither distance or the stack or severaql balls as an obstacle
gives nick a relatively easier chance to start to take control of the game
than if for example he it the way Bill Stroud suggested still going for it but leaving the cue ball in alittle tougher position for a reply if he missed the shot

agree?? yes/no
its not personal
its learning

In looking at the diagram a little closer, I think maybe Efren actually drifted over a litter further than he meant to? Unless he really was going all out. Reason is, he left Nick (would have, that is, had he missed the bank) the 10 ball right near Nick's pocket, with a good shot to go up and down the table to get behind the rest of the balls. I would have liked Nick in that game if Efren missed the bank (that is, if the ball that Efren banked wasn't left hanging). If you look at the difference between the way lll drew the shot and where Efren's cue ended up after the bank, the difference is Nick being able to make the 10 or not in the event of a miss on the bank.

Like lll drew, this would have kept Nick off the 10:
http://www.onepocket.org/forum/attachment.php?attachmentid=4633

In reality, Efren let the cue slide over a little more:
http://www.onepocket.org/forum/attachment.php?attachmentid=4634

Who cares though, he buried the bank and ran out. Game over. Proof of "right shot."

 

[lll]

In looking at the diagram a little closer, I think maybe Efren actually drifted over a litter further than he meant to? Unless he really was going all out. Reason is, he left Nick (would have, that is, had he missed the bank) the 10 ball right near Nick's pocket, with a good shot to go up and down the table to get behind the rest of the balls. I would have liked Nick in that game if Efren missed the bank (that is, if the ball that Efren banked wasn't left hanging). If you look at the difference between the way lll drew the shot and where Efren's cue ended up after the bank, the difference is Nick being able to make the 10 or not in the event of a miss on the bank.

Like lll drew, this would have kept Nick off the 10:
http://www.onepocket.org/forum/attachment.php?attachmentid=4633

In reality, Efren let the cue slide over a little more:
http://www.onepocket.org/forum/attachment.php?attachmentid=4634

Who cares though, he buried the bank and ran out. Game over. Proof of "right shot."

steve,
first my diagrams should never be take as "EXACT"
i try my best to show the "gist " of the shot and then show the actual leave
you have to go by the leave and use my approximation as a guide as to how the shot went down
sorry if my diagrams are misleading
its not intentional


if efren had drifted less than he did
he may have blocked nick from the 10 but he would have given
nick a better look/chance of repositioning the balls to his (nicks) advantage
jmho

billy's appraisal of efrens shot and thinking
"why make one when you can get them all?"
was a good one

 

[bstroud]

To run out:

Shoot in the dark? ball and play position on the stripe on the rail 12? so you can get position on the 6 ball so you can get on the 7 ball on the rail.

Use the seven ball to open the stack just next to the 5 ball so you can shoot the 5 next.

After that it depends on how the balls open up.

Another way is to shoot the dark ball, get position on the 12? ball so you can billiard into the 10 ball leaving position on the 6 if you need it. Then shoot in the six and play for the 10 or 8 ball.

Bill S.

 

[Scrzbill]

leaving himself like this
he then ran out game over
ill go thru his run in the am
how would you run out from here??
View attachment 4634

Run out? I play one and duck. Two at the most and on a good day, three balls on one turn. They don't call me dead money for no reason!!!:frus

 

[tylerdurden]

i dont disagree with your statement
but i dont think efrenshot it as a 2 way shot
but i dont see this as the reason for why he shot it because of where he left the cue ball
(we know efren leaves the cue ball where he wants to 99% of the time)

but i think you would agree that positioning balls in your favor leaving your opponent safe ie putting the "squeeze"/pressure on is almost as important
or leads to you making balls
leaving the cue ball on his(efrens) half of the table with neither distance or the stack or severaql balls as an obstacle
gives nick a relatively easier chance to start to take control of the game
than if for example he it the way Bill Stroud suggested still going for it but leaving the cue ball in alittle tougher position for a reply if he missed the shot

agree?? yes/no
its not personal
its learning

NH Steve's thoughts were my initial thoughts as well after seeing what efren did (ie he came over a tad further than he wanted).

This is what I think great players do, there is really a lot of acumen there, it is amazing, no kidding. I marvel at it. Efren is basically shooting at a win if he makes it...... let's look at some numbers (forgive if i'm off, i'm not an oddsmaker :frus).....

If efren makes that bank 35% of the time, ok.... chalk up 35% right there in favor of him winning the game.

That leaves ~65%..... from there I think he figures to maybe lose a ball or two (could be worse, but those don't lay good at all -- ie, if they laid good for nick, hed never shoot this). And the rest of the equation.... he figures his position will deteriorate a little. Remember, you can only do so mush with one shot, and there are more on efren's side. I think in his mind if he makes the bank he is a winner, if he misses it he goes back to his moving (which he's rightfully very confident in) and now he's like a 60% loser in the game.

You see how that only ~60% loser, combined with the 35% winner part of the equation puts him way ahead? That's how I see his thinking, and I like it more and more as I learn more. Many of us are too focused on how we'll never make that ball.... he weighs it up and confidently hits his shot. His true strength is that he makes so many of these when others dog them every time (which is why they lean toward not shooting perhaps).

 

[wincardona]

In looking at the diagram a little closer, I think maybe Efren actually drifted over a litter further than he meant to? Unless he really was going all out. Reason is, he left Nick (would have, that is, had he missed the bank) the 10 ball right near Nick's pocket, with a good shot to go up and down the table to get behind the rest of the balls. I would have liked Nick in that game if Efren missed the bank (that is, if the ball that Efren banked wasn't left hanging). If you look at the difference between the way lll drew the shot and where Efren's cue ended up after the bank, the difference is Nick being able to make the 10 or not in the event of a miss on the bank.

Like lll drew, this would have kept Nick off the 10:
http://www.onepocket.org/forum/attachment.php?attachmentid=4633

In reality, Efren let the cue slide over a little more:
http://www.onepocket.org/forum/attachment.php?attachmentid=4634

Who cares though, he buried the bank and ran out. Game over. Proof of "right shot."

I believe that Reyes thought that he could hold the cue ball and limit Varner's options, but I also believe that Reyes felt good about the bank, good enough to gamble with the cue ball control. Obviously he factored in his projected ball running potential and used that as a motivating factor.

We all have our expectations on our ability as a player in terms of what we can and can't do, sometimes the red light comes on and sometimes the green light flashes. We only know from experience how we feel about certain shots and must be respected for achieving our goals. It's when we fail that we should be criticized, especially if failing is an often occurrence. In this instance the light was green (for Reyes)but that doesn't mean that the light for this shot should be green...unless you feel it should.

The more we learn and the more we play will give us a clearer picture to make the all important distinction between the difference in RED or GREEN.

Billy I.

 

[lll]

all good discussion above
i might add that the commentators had mentioned that nick had seemed to be in control leading 2 games to 1 prior to this game
didnt look like efren was intimidated
ok so efren made the 7 and hit the 5
he then made the 6 and nudged the 15
made the fifteen and went into the stack
heres the 15 about to fall as the cue hits the stack

 

[lll]

ok the fifteen went in
how would you play from here

 

[androd]

Bank on brother.
Rod.

 

[lll]

Bank on brother.
Rod.

great shot choice
no cookie without where is the cueball going:sorry:heh

 

[wincardona]

great shot choice
no cookie without where is the cueball going:sorry:heh

looks like he can bank the 5 ball and clip the 7 ball with the cue ball, the cue ball will flatten out allowing the 5 ball to pass. The 7 ball will be the next ball Reyes will shoot, providing he makes the 5 ball. The problem with this shot is with the 5 and 7 balls, could possibly kiss one another.

Billy I.

 

[wincardona]

looks like he can bank the 5 ball and clip the 7 ball with the cue ball, the cue ball will flatten out allowing the 5 ball to pass. The 7 ball will be the next ball Reyes will shoot, providing he makes the 5 ball. The problem with this shot is with the 5 and 7 balls, could possibly kiss one another.

Billy I.

I should say that this is one way you can avoid the kiss, if there is a kiss with the shot. If there isn't a kiss with the bank then there could be a few ways he could send the cue ball. Too tough to tell the exact angle of the shot.

Could even play the 5 ball into the 10 ball sending the cue ball toward the side pocket. All depends on how he sees the angle.

Billy I.

 

[androd]

great shot choice
no cookie without where is the cueball going:sorry:heh

My choice.
Rod.

 

[bstroud]

I think Rod has chosen the correct shot.

Bill S.